0313 GMT - Xero's bull at Citi sees multiple external positives for the Australia-listed cloud-accounting software provider. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients in a note that Citi's analysis of business formation and insolvencies looks good for the New Zealand-based company. Formations are accelerating in Australia and the U.S., while insolvency trends are improving in Xero's home region and seem steady in the U.K. He warns that there is typically a lag between activity and its impact on Xero, but feels positive nonetheless. Additionally, Ahmed reckons that hiring activity analysis suggests there is upside to Xero's current year margins and earnings. Currency moves are also favorable, he adds. Citi has a buy rating on the stock, which is up 2.6% at A$79.65. ([email protected])

0132 GMT - Serko keeps its bull at Citi even though revenue expectations are moderating on uncertainty generated by the conflict in Iran. Analyst Siraj Ahmed lowers his FY 2027 Ebitda forecast for the expense-management software provider by NZ$3 million. This reflects his lower revenue assumptions, and an expectation of higher spending on accelerated development of Serko's flagship AI product. There is execution risk on the product but Ahmed thinks it looks promising, and that the stock's valuation remains undemanding. Citi cuts its target price on Serko's Australia-listed stock by 17% to A$2.85 and maintains a buy rating. Shares are flat at A$1.62. ([email protected])

0102 GMT - Australian banks would be worth about a third less than currently if higher interest rates and resurgent inflation hit consumers and businesses hard, Morgan Stanley analysts say. Their bear case includes loan growth slowing to low single digits, margins declining by a percentage in the mid single digits, and loss rates rising to 15-20 basis points of loans. This gloomy scenario would result in FY 2027 earnings downgrades of up to 17% relative to Morgan Stanley's base case. Valuation multiples would be cut and MS target prices for Australia's four largest banks would be an average 32% below current share prices. ([email protected])

0046 GMT - AML3D's bull at Shaw & Partners sees the Australian 3D printer's new U.S. defense contract as another step toward fulfilling his revenue expectations. Analyst Larry Gandler estimates that the A$9.9 million order from Huntington Ingalls' Newport News Shipping division should generate A$3 million to A$4 million of revenue in FY 2027. This would be a significant step toward the A$30 million total that Gandler forecasts for the period. Writing to clients in a note, he thinks there is also a chance that AML3D makes an announcement within a month related to the U.S. Navy's expansion of its additive manufacturing capacity. Shaw keeps a buy rating and A$0.40 target price on the stock, which is flat at A$0.17. ([email protected])

0012 GMT - Brandon Craig's appointment as BHP's next CEO appears to be closely aligned with the giant miner's current corporate direction, says Angus Gluskie, managing director at Whitefield, a BHP shareholder. "This suggests BHP is comfortable with the path charted by Mike Henry and is looking for a successor who can continue to implement on that vision," he says. BHP shares are up 0.5% at A$49.99. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2356 GMT - The appointment of Brandon Craig as BHP's next CEO suggests a continued focus by the miner on large, low-cost tier-one assets, and growth in copper and potash, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. Capital discipline will likely also remain a focus, he says. Current CEO Mike Henry oversaw a simplifying of BHP's portfolio and strengthening of its copper exposure, while delivering strong shareholder returns and a robust operating performance, Peker says. "Craig's appointment suggests the company is likely to build on this strategic direction rather than pursue a material shift in portfolio strategy," he says. RBC has a sector perform rating and A$57.00 target on BHP. The stock is up 0.2% at A$49.83. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

Woodside Energy's confirmation of Liz Westcott as CEO after three months in an acting capacity is a low-risk decision, says RBC Capital Markets. Westcott provides leadership skills to ensure Woodside's suite of major operated development projects are delivered, analyst Gordon Ramsay says. "Liz's appointment also highlights the importance of delivering high operated asset availability," RBC says. That's something that Westcott excelled at in her prior role running the Pluto LNG and the North West Shelf LNG projects in Australia, RBC says. Woodside displayed disciplined cost management at each asset, says RBC, which has a neutral call on Woodside. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2320 GMT - New Hope is benefiting from the run up in coal prices that has followed the Iran conflict, but Macquarie cautions investors to stay alert to the availability of diesel. Macquarie says the market backdrop for New Hope has improved due to increased demand for seaborne thermal coal, as fuel users substituting natural gas on Qatar's LNG outage. Still, New Hope relies on diesel fuel at its mines. Diesel accounts for some 20% of its costs. "Should diesel supplies become scarce, it could present a risk to continued operations across the sector," Macquarie says. "Management noted it doesn't see a near term risk but has engaged respective industry bodies to put in place preventive measures." Macquarie upgrades New Hope to "neutral," from "underperform." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2312 GMT - Perpetual can make deeper cost cuts within its Asset Management division, Macquarie says. Perpetual wants to strip some A$70 million-A$80 million of costs from its entire business. It is currently tracking ahead of plan. "We see additional scope, particularly in the Asset Management business, for further cost-out," Macquarie says. It points out that Perpetual's cost-to-income of 80% is above the global asset manager median of 64%. "We note Perpetual previously operated at levels below the global asset manager median (i.e. in FY18-19)," Macquarie says. That shifted as Perpetual consolidated acquisitions including Barrow Hanley and Pendal, while also making investments such as expanding its distribution team. Macquarie has an "outperform" call on Perpetual, which is down 0.7%, at A$16.00 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2222 GMT - The appointment of Brandon Craig as BHP's next CEO reflects the giant miner's focus on growing its business in copper and potash. Craig, who will succeed Mike Henry in July, has in recent years been leading the company's growth strategy in what it calls "future facing commodities" across Canada, the U.S. and South America. That includes overseeing a new joint venture in Argentina and Chile that BHP reckons may become one of the world's top copper and gold mines, and a big potash project in Canada that is due to begin operating in mid-2027. Also in his remit is the Resolution Copper project in Arizona, that is led by partner Rio Tinto and this week completed a land swap needed for development to progress. BHP ended Tuesday at A$49.73/share. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires