Forum Topics AEL AEL Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

AEL has had two failed wells this month, pushing SP much lower.

They remain a well-managed company, with smart operatives at the helm, and their processing capacity is excellent and in these fossil fuel-demanding times, will bear even more fruit in the short term.


The SP decline is excessive, and buying in is well worth a look. I have not done a formal analysis as I ahve bene in for some time, but worth a look.

Randy
Added 2 months ago

Completely agree @Barium

Under Jane's leadership the company has gotten on top of all their legacy issues at Orbost (it is now humming) and removed major decommissioning liability (for the BMG field $240M+) off their balance sheet.

While very disappointing, these wells were about growth (so nothing has changed with the current business other than near-term growth potential). A significant portion of AEL's cap-ex for these two wells was also covered by OG Energy under the free-carry arrangements to repay 50% of historic cap-ex spent by AEL on the ECSP. So nothing catastrophic here.

NTA $1.80ps. Debt drawn was around $103m out of $480m facility as at 31/12/25 following last half's capital raise to do a 4-well campaign (thank goodness they did). The two gas plants are carried in the books at WDV, however their replacement value (and likely current market value) would I believe be significantly more. So the $1.80ps NTA is likely quite conservative, and they still have considerable producing gas reserves at Sole and to a lesser degree in the Otway.

While I'm as disappointed as the next shareholder in this update - I do believe the market has considerably over-reacted smashing the shares down 35-40% for what is really just a cancelled growth opportunity. Still, one never knows how much value was baked in / ascribed to exploration success - so I guess it's hard to assess the deserved fair value adjustment.

Either way I'm topping up at these levels IRL and likely in SM portfolio.

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