Agree, but I think this is not over, coal has lot of upside with Qatargas lng wil not return normal for atleast 2-3 years

Great approach @Goldfish

Ive been in a similar position with gold holdings.

For me it was a mental adjustment (ongoing) that selling at a profit (but missing potential further profit) wasn’t a failure.

And that by selling it was letting me make money elsewhere.

While in theory the idea of making 20% instead of loosing 80% is clearly not a bad thing. The mental pain of ‘loosing’ that additional potential profit missed by selling at 20% still hits.

Given the recent gold price reduction it’s helped me avoid a total cratering of my portfolio value. A month ago I was furious at missing those additional profits. Now I’m happy I did it.

@Goldfish, it's been some time since I had a good look at KAR, but I remember it as a promising oiler, subject to the whims of STO, with an arrogant management team stirred up by activist instos. For me, these facts alone would steer me toward cashing in KAR as I note the price has risen. They certainly don't exist in WHC or NHC. Regarding selling, you should look at what the major shareholders are doing; a quick look suggests they might be selling. As to how you structure your exit, I suggest throwing the issue over to AI for an interpretation. I have been agreeably surprised by what they suggested to me in the buying of shares. A prompt such as "Provide me with a detailed selling strategy that considers monthly sales volume and recent actions. My objective is to exit fully with as beneficial a final average return as is possible." This can be refined, but it's a starter.

@Goldfish, yeah timing is one of those things we're not hardwired to do well.

The first thing I'd say is don't judge success or failure based on whether you hit the peak or trough of share price. You almost never will time the top or bottom. I'm constantly reminding myself to be happy with dollar cost averaging up or down.

My own approach is to have my rules for triggers and limits and use the power or dollar cost averaging. That makes the decision immediate. I used to get caught in an emotional loop when prices shifted noticeably, spending way too much time re-evaluating my positions. Now the decision is just rules based.

I aim to hold a roughly even split between ETFs and individual companies. I invest in a company if I think I can get >15% pa return. From my ETFs I'll be happy with high single figure returns over the long-term. I aim to hold up to 8 individual companies, with each holding averaging 5% of my portfolio (so, I'm aiming for roughly 40% of my portfolio in individual shares, 40% in ETFs, and 20% in cash/bonds).

I have my spreadsheet with my current company valuations and expected ROI for all my individual holdings. It updates daily share prices. If the spreadsheet says the likely return has dropped below 10% I sell 1% of portfolio value per month (ie not 1% of my holding in the company, I'll sell an amount equivalent to 1% of the value of my entire portfolio). And I have a limit of 0.5% per week - this helps me limit impulsive buy/sells as well as benefit from dollar cost averaging. I've set the trigger at 10% return because I think at that level ETFs provide a better risk-return bet. If the spreadsheet says likely return is <0% I sell everything as fast as liquidity allows.

I bought into New Hope last Sep. I've posted a couple of valuations for New Hope on SM. With the big jump in price recently, my spreadsheet now shows expected return for New Hope as 7% pa. So this month I've sold some my New Hope holding in two chunks, each worth 0.5% of the value of my portfolio. If the price stays at this level (and assuming I have no huge reason to change my valuation) then I'll do the same next month.

In the past I may have agonised over the decision to sell. With my triggers and limits, it's a quick easy decision about when to sell and how much.

And that's a reminder to me to update my SM portfolio, I'll do that now!

@Goldfish there is this poscast stocktake gaurav sodhi talks exaclry to your point i fully echo your points nhc & whc have got less downside risk as conpared to karoon.

@Raseekingalpha yes I also subscribe to II and follow Gaurav.

He made a few mistakes in the past, but in recent times (probably around the last 5 years or so) a strategy of "buy whatever Gaurav says" would have MASSIVELY outperformed the market. Some huge contrarian bets that have paid off unbelievably. Just from memory: S32, NHC, WHC, Eagers, Aussie Broadband.

I really rate Gaurav. Very smart, Independent thinking. Not sure why he is even still at II and hasn't been snapped up by some big fund manager.

@Goldfish I am very much in the same boat. My strategy is to have a trigger target % gain on my investment, stock dependent but normally 30%+. If a share hits or surpasses the target it is a potential sell. I then have a look at other considerations, like whether there is another share that is better value that I can deploy the capital to, how many years multiple of the dividend the CG is at the current profit margin etc.. If I think there might be considerable further upside in the stock, I might just sell down a proportion, 25% - 50% of the holding to lock in the profit and keep exposure to further upside.

I still hate it when I sell and the stock shoots up ( I swear all I have to do for a share to go up is to sell it, and for it to go down to buy it), but I hate it more when I miss profit and it falls a shitload. The target % strategy lets me rationalise the decision, and as they say, 'you never go broke taking profit'.

I think you have a sensible thought process. In particular about being open minded to selling down part of a large stock holding. I hold some KAR shares, and whilst I am not selling at this stage, if my weighting was as high as you say of around 15%, I would be trimming at least.

I think that may stop you getting into a couple of potential problems.

For example, how you said you sold EVN very early into its rally. Keeping some KAR will stop you having that potential regret messing with your mind. i.e. not participating in a big bullish move.

On the other hand, as you say if a cease fire happened all of a sudden then KAR is likely to experience a decent sized pull back. If you had not taken any profits then this would also be messing with your mind. You probably would find it difficult deciding on your next step in an objective way. Whereas if you lighten some of the exposure, you can probably address the situation more dispassionately about whether you should add again on the pull back, or maybe even sell more at lower prices.

The problems I used to run into is trying to make an all or nothing call on whether to cut back a large weight all in one go, or hold all of it for outsized gains. I think we mentally have a tendency to want to make one call, then "barrack" for the stock to go up or down the next few months to make us look correct.

Brokerage is not like near 3% a trade like in the 1980s, so totally nothing wrong with partial sells of positions at times! A stock might be a rated a solid buy for a 5% weight, but not necessarily a 20% weight in a portfolio.

You are absolutely not alone - I think it's probably one of the biggest challenges a lot of investors face. The emotions we feel are hard to override; having a 'favourite' stock that is doing well can be hard to let go, or holding onto a dumpster-fire of a stock because you don't want to look wrong/lock in losses is just part of being a human (in my opinion).

It doesn't make it any better when there are a bunch of 'golden rules' to invest by that contradict each other:

• 'Let your winners run' vs 'You won't go broke taking profits'
• 'Buy the dip' vs 'Don't catch a falling knife'
• Diversify to reduce risk' vs 'Concentrate your best ideas'

I just try to take in as much good information as I can, and cherry pick what makes sense and works for me. I myself am very concentrated in WDS (currently 42% IRL). It has been very tempting to sell up until this point, I am still holding. This is because I remember what my initial reason for holding is and follow its 4 year cycle. My first target was to sell 20% of the holding at $36 (closed at $35 today) however I didn't expect it until Q4. It's tempting to cancel however I made an initial plan for a reason, and I need to remind myself to stick to it. It's quite scary watching the price dance around this much and I could lose all the gains depending on what tomorrows news headline is, but again I remind myself of the original thesis and I need to trust the work I did. I think that's really important - make a plan and back yourself.