0156 GMT - Navigator Global's bull at Morgans welcomes the alternative-asset manager's latest investment, and a deal structure that involves no investor sell-down. Analyst Richard Coles likes the fact that the Australian company's US$100 million investment in Canadian AI investor Georgian will be directed toward business growth rather than enriching its founders. Coles tells clients in a note that the investment is sizable relative to Navigator's goal of hitting US$200 million in fiscal 2030 Ebitda. He points out that a key driver is the annual deployment of US$80 million into new partner firms. Morgans cuts its target price 11% to A$2.98 on lower peer multiples but maintains an outperform rating. Shares are up 2.9% at A$2.13. ([email protected])

0103 GMT - Collins Foods' bull at RBC sees the transfer of 20 Taco Bell stores away from the group easing worries over potential cash outflows. Analyst Michael Toner had seen some possibility of a higher one-off cash outflow from store closures as the Australian fast-food franchiser pursued an exit from the chain. However, Toner tells clients in a note that transferring the stores to a brand affiliate and Restaurant Brands Australia largely removes this risk at a reasonably manageable cost. He adds that the disposal of A$24 million in lease liabilities marginally improves Collins Foods' already low leverage. RBC has an outperform rating and A$13.00 target price on the stock, which is down 2.6% at A$8.55. ([email protected])

0039 GMT - SGH shares have been materially derated and now trade at an "attractive" 13.0X prospective EV/Ebit, in line with a five-year average, Macquarie says. It upgrades the stock to outperform from neutral. "While the demand context is likely to weaken, we think SGH's businesses remain well-placed to manage this," says the bank. Macquarie trims volume expectations in the construction-exposed businesses of Boral and Coates. It pares its target on the stock to A$50.40 from A$53.05. Macquarie says it still sees the prospect of SGH continuing to pursue its bid to buy BlueScope Steel. Shares are down 1.9% at A$39.91. The stock is 14% lower year to date. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2312 GMT - Meaningful earnings upgrades could be coming for Alcoa as aluminum-supply disruptions in the Middle East push metal prices to a four-year high, Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina says. "Furthermore, with obvious challenges in shipping alumina through the Strait of Hormuz, additional supply shocks in aluminum could lead to fly-up price spikes," LaFemina says. Alcoa, among the world's biggest aluminum producers, is the biggest beneficiary within LaFemina's coverage, he says. Its shares aren't immune from recession risk, however, and operating costs are likely to rise given the jump in energy prices, he adds. Alcoa shares are down 1.4% in Sydney, at A$92.07, paring an 8.6% gain Monday. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2240 GMT -- As South32 gears up for a new CEO, the miner's focus should be executing its growth projects well rather than any strategic shift or portfolio "tinkering," Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi says. The company has "options galore" to grow and strong execution "is the need of the hour," says Ravi. Citi reckons South32 could double its copper-equivalent volumes in a decade, mainly in copper and zinc. The bank upgrades the stock to buy from neutral. It raises its target to A$5.40 from A$5.00. South32 ended Monday at A$4.41. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2232 GMT -- Measures taken by Australia's government to improve fuel supply since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have been fairly collaborative and sensible, says Macquarie. For example, it thinks officials will extend the relaxation of fuel-quality standards to improve domestic supply. The government on March 12 agreed to allow higher sulfur levels in petrol for 60 days. Ampol and Viva Energy, Australia's two refiners, are benefiting from the rise in refining margins. Macquarie raises a forecast for Ampol's EPS this year by 42%, and by 62% for Viva Energy. Its price target on Ampol lifts 11% to A$40.00/share and on Viva Energy increases by 30% to A$3.50/share. Ampol and Viva Energy ended Monday at A$34.00 and A$2.53, respectively. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2218 GMT - Drug wholesaler Paragon Care might find it difficult to pass on higher costs arising from the Iran conflict to customers. Bell Potter says warehouse and distribution costs are almost certainly under threat from increased diesel prices and a range of inflationary cost pressures. Analyst John Hester says Paragon Care might consider a special levy to pass on costs to pharmacists. "However, pharmacies are highly price sensitive and the switching costs between wholesalers is close to zero," Bell Potter says. "Any such initiative would require a consensus move from all Community Services Obligation suppliers in order to avoid chaos." So, it's unlikely to happen. Bell Potter retains a buy call and A$0.30/share price target on Paragon Care, which ended Monday at A$0.19. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2205 GMT - Northern Star Resources's new bull lays out the case for the gold miner to sell high cost, shorter life assets. UBS upgrades Northern Star to buy, from sell, arguing a 40% fall in its stock price over the past month is overdone. Analyst Levi Spry says Northern Star could improve the quality of its portfolio through asset sales. Doing so could lower average all-in sustaining costs by A$200/oz, or 10%, and extend average asset life by four years, UBS says. "Based on domestic and global peer valuations, this higher-quality portfolio could justify up to additional 2 turns on its enterprise value-to-Ebitda multiple, partially offsetting lost earnings," UBS says. Also, proceeds from asset sales would likely fund share buybacks or dividends, potentially lifting the stock more. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2202 GMT - Navigator Global's bulls at UBS see the structure of its latest investment masking the potential upside to its return target. Analysts at the investment bank tell clients in a note that the internal rate of return from Navigator's US$100 million investment in AI private-equity investor Georgian could exceed the Australian company's typical 10%-15% annual cash yield target. However, they point out that details of the preferred economic interest that comes with Navigator's 4.5% equity interest have not been disclosed. The recent fall in Navigator's stock helps support a continued buy rating. UBS cuts its target price 9.2% to A$3.45. Shares are at A$2.07 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2200 GMT - UBS lowers its year-end target for Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index. It cites a likelihood that inflation spikes and economic growth slows, but the country avoids a recession. UBS now expects the ASX 200 to end the year at 8800, compared to a prior forecast of 9400. The ASX 200 ended Monday at 8461. "Although earnings downgrades will likely dominate through the next quarter, markets react fast nowadays, and prices will choose to 'look through' to the other side," strategist Richard Schellbach says. "The EPS downgrades we expect over coming months should see the pace of profit growth decelerate." UBS's new 8800 target would mean the ASX 200 ends 2026 roughly flat for the year. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2138 GMT - Australian stocks look set to pare their week-opening losses despite oil prices hitting their highest level since 2022. ASX futures are up by 0.1% ahead of Tuesday's session, suggesting that the S&P/ASX 200 could claw back some of the ground lost in Monday's nearly 0.7% slip. The benchmark index is down by 8.0% in March and on course for its worst month since June 2022. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both fell for a third-straight session as oil prices rose and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of the dangers of higher inflation expectations. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq lost 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%. ([email protected])

2124 GMT - New Zealand-based retailer Warehouse's 1H result signaled good news on costs and bad news on margins. Forsyth Barr is now confident that Warehouse's cost-of-doing-business can be less than 31% of sales over the medium term. "However, we also come away from the result less confident in Warehouse's 34% gross margin target, with Red Sheds in particular under significant gross margin pressure," analyst Paul Laxton Koraua says. Warehouse plans to focus on high-margin categories, such as Home and Apparel. However, Forsyth Barr thinks changes will take time to implement. "Recent geopolitical events elevate the risks from higher freight costs, potential supply chain disruptions, and a negative domestic demand response," it says. Forsyth Barr retains a neutral call on Warehouse's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires