0337 GMT - A new wave of Chinese investment in mining assets abroad is being led by private miners rather than state-owned enterprises, says S&P Global Ratings' Annie Ao. "We think the current wave of outbound investment signals a structural shift in the sector," Ao says in a report. It suggests "a more pragmatic and execution-focused phase of international growth for China's mining industry." The private firms are pursuing acquisitions to become global players, expand product portfolios and diversify geographically, says Ao. They are supported by recent strength in prices for gold and copper, which tend to be their primary output. "Rated Chinese miners generally maintain strong operating cash flow and broad financing access, supporting their capacity to fund sizable overseas acquisitions and project investments." ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0301 GMT - The recent disruption to global energy markets has "embedded future cost inflation across the mining sector that may never unwind," say Jarden analysts Ben Lyons and Adam Bennett. The analysts raise their cost estimates for Australian miners to account for the impact of higher diesel prices on haulage, equipment, contractors and consumables. "We do not yet constrain production forecasts as a result of fuel availability, however we consider this a real risk should fuel shortages escalate further," they say. The S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index is down 1.1% at 8086.7. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0256 GMT - Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's better-than-expected trading update isn't enough to shake off its bear at Morgan Stanley. The Australian lender's quarterly pre-provision profit beat analyst Andrei Stadnik's estimate by about 6%, while costs were lower than he had anticipated. He sees the performance improving confidence in the regional lender's near-term earnings outlook, but warns the operating environment remains uncertain. He adds that Bendigo's EPS growth profile is lower than its peers, and sees plenty of execution risk around its productivity program. MS raises its target price by 4.1% to A$10.10 and keeps an underweight recommendation on the stock, which is down 0.9% at A$11.39. ([email protected])

0226 GMT - Sigma Healthcare's recent share-price weakness only makes Morgans analyst Scott Power more bullish on the stock. Raising his recommendation on the Australian pharmaceutical wholesaler and retailer to buy from accumulate, Power tells clients in a note that he continues to anticipate annual earnings growth of about 20% over the next three years. He expects like-for-like sales growth, new domestic and international stores, operating efficiencies and the eventual delivery of A$100 million in annual synergies from 2025's merger between Sigma and the Chemist Warehouse retail chain. Morgans maintains its target price at A$3.36. Shares are down 0.7% at A$2.67. ([email protected])

0210 GMT - AMP's latest buyback announcement is seen by its bull at Macquarie as limiting any downside volatility for the stock. Maintaining an outperform rating on the stock, one of the investment bank's analysts tells clients in a note that the Australian wealth manager's A$150 million on-market buyback shows board and management have taken on investor feedback. The analyst thinks that the capital management initiative should allay any concerns that AMP might be tempted to embark upon transformational M&A. Macquarie lifts its target price 8.9% to A$1.96. Shares are up 1.65% at A$1.3875. ([email protected])

0200 GMT - Computershare can't shake its bears at Jarden despite a tailwind from higher near-term interest rates. Jarden's analysts acknowledge that higher rates are positive for the Australian share-registry provider due to their impact on margin income. However, they tell clients in a note that there are rate risks in both directions from the current global backdrop and say they remain concerned about structural risk from the tokenization of securities. They raise their EPS forecasts through fiscal 2028 on an improved earnings outlook, but still see the stock as overpriced. Jarden lifts its target price 3.3% to A$31.00. Shares are up 0.65% at A$29.47. ([email protected])

0103 GMT - Kingsgate's 3Q gold output appears to be a slight miss, says MA Financial analyst Paul Hissey. Yet a fifth consecutive quarter above 20,000 oz "speaks to the consistency of the Chatree operation," he says. Kingsgate produced 21,036 oz in 3Q. MA expected about 23,200 oz. Hissey says it's hard to comment on why output appears weaker than anticipated given the limited detail in Kinsgate's update. "However we assume lower cash and bullion balance is likely due to softer production," he says. Reaffirmed guidance "suggests confidence that the asset is well placed to close out the FY," Hissey adds. He notes that only about 19,000 oz is needed to meet the bottom end of FY guidance. MA has a buy rating and A$6.95 target. Shares are down 2.3% at A$5.10. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0059 GMT - Pantoro Gold is an appealing takeover target after downgrading production guidance last month, reckons Euroz Hartleys. It notes peers including Ora Banda Mining and Bellevue Gold are trading at large premiums to Pantoro's A$1.5 billion market value. They could be keen on a deal. "Other larger companies that could be interested in Pantoro include but are not limited to: Gold Fields, Vault Minerals, Regis Resources and Capricorn Metals," says analyst Michael Scantlebury. Pantoro's Norseman gold project has scope to grow and the company has other deposits that could spread its production risk in future. Euroz Hartleys has a speculative buy on Pantoro. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2350 GMT - Morgans cuts its underlying Ebit forecasts for packaging company Orora by 8%-11% across FY26-FY28 following a trading update that highlighted new challenges for its Saverglass business. Orora reset its Ebit forecast for Saverglass to 63 million-68 million euros, citing impacts including disruption at its Ras Al Khaimah facility in the UAE due to the Iran conflict. That represented an 18% downgrade at the midpoint and the third downgrade since Orora acquired the business in 2023. Alexander Lu views Orora as a relatively defensive business. "However, global consumer demand has weakened following the onset of the Middle East conflict and may remain subdued for some time, even in the event of a near-term resolution," Lu says. "Given this uncertainty, we maintain a hold rating as we await further updates." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2338 GMT - Morgan Stanley expects consensus EPS forecasts for Australian oil and natural gas producers to rise following their quarterly updates, due in coming weeks. Woodside Energy, Santos, Beach Energy and Karoon Energy are benefiting from uncertainty caused by the Iran conflict. Analyst Rob Koh cites an 'air pocket' in physical supply chains that supports these stocks. "Our commodity price mark-to-market sees 2026 EPS upgrades of 30-45% and we are 12-14% above Visible Alpha consensus heading into the quarterly reports," MS says. It also views a potential additional gas windfall tax burden as manageable. MS's top picks are Karoon and Santos. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2331 GMT - A2 Milk's current challenges in China-label infant milk formula supply are likely to trigger a mid-teens downgrade to consensus Ebit estimates, says Citi. But it recommends investors prepare to pick up more of the dairy company's stock, which is down 14% in New Zealand. The Australian market opens at 0000 GMT. Analyst Sam Teeger says a2 Milk's update is disappointing "given there was a school of thought that a2 should have taken share recently from other international players that have faced recalls." That may still be the case. "Our first impression would be any share price weakness today on the back of these supply issues is likely to be an enhanced buying opportunity for investors as we believe supply issues are likely to be temporary and demand appears to remain strong," Citi says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2252 GMT - Jefferies pares its price target on pharmaceutical company CSL by 9.8% to A$212.00/share after assuming slower growth in immunoglobulin and albumin. Analyst David Stanton says investors' near-term focus is on CSL's performance in immunoglobulin in the U.S. and in albumin in China. Both markets appear underpenetrated, Jefferies says. So, the industry should grow over the medium term. "That said, industry feedback suggests that, at present, 2H industry growth rates in these markets are not stellar, throwing in question CSL's 'strong 2H ambition'," Jefferies says. Its EPS forecast for FY 2026 falls by around 2%, and for FY 2027 by some 5%. CSL ended last week at A$139.19. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2240 GMT - Property manager GPT loses a bull in Jefferies following a vibe shift at its annual shareholder meeting. Analyst Andrew Dodds says GPT offered little detail on its performance this year so far. "However management drew attention to how geopolitical uncertainty, prolonged inflation and higher rates, and the concerns around AI implications on real estate continue to impact sentiment globally," Jefferies says. GPT maintained FY 2026 funds-from-operations guidance of 35.4 Australian cents/share. That was despite Australia's central bank raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March, estimated to have a A$2 million impact on funds from operations. Jefferies drops to hold, from buy. Its price target falls 18% to A$5.04/share. GPT ended last week at A$4.65.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires