0452 GMT - Macquarie's new bull at Morgan Stanley sees the likelihood of structurally higher commodity prices contributing to what looks like a so-called goldilocks scenario for the investment bank. Raising his recommendation to overweight from equal-weight, analyst Andrei Stadnik reminds clients that commodities represent 20% of Macquarie's group revenue. He says this gives it a hedge on commodity disruption risks to the recovery in capital markets. Stadnik also sees potential upside to liquefied natural gas revenues and points out that Macquarie is an owner of in-demand infrastructure and energy assets. MS lifts its target price by 21% to A$270.00. Shares are up 3.7% at A$232.11. ([email protected])

0423 GMT - EML Payments keeps its bulls at Canaccord Genuity despite the cut to its annual earnings guidance. Canaccord's analysts point out that the customer delays and macroeconomic conditions that drove the Australian company to moderate its outlook are beyond its control. They tell clients in a note that EML's track record of growing its pipeline since fiscal 2024 give them confidence in its medium-term trajectory. They say it has shown it can covert opportunities into contract wins and revenue, and this should continue with both existing and new products. Canaccord lowers its target price 8.6% to A$1.65 but keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 4.7% at A$0.3875. ([email protected])

0404 GMT - Qantas's decision not to commence its previously announced A$150 million on-market buyback causes no surprise at Macquarie. With fuel costs surging and demand uncertain, the investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that they hadn't expected the carrier to start buying stock. They estimate that Qantas will take close to a A$500 million Ebitda hit from the Iran conflict. For international flights, they think that A$150 million-A$200 million of additional revenue helps offset A$600 million in fuel costs. Domestically, they see something like a A$70 million hit. Macquarie expects any negative impact on international demand to more fully emerge in 2026's December quarter. Macquarie has an outperform rating and A$11.30 target price on the stock, which is down 1.1% at A$8.91.([email protected])

0330 GMT - Qantas's bull at RBC reckons that the modest share-price fall that greeted the carrier's fuel-price warning suggests investors had already priced in bad news. Analyst Owen Birrell estimates the Australian airline's efforts to mitigate A$700 million of additional second-half fuel costs should limit the earnings hit to between A$450 million and A$500 million. He reckons this implies an 18% hit to annual pretax profit forecasts. The 1% drop in the stock's price that followed the announcement therefore is seen by Birrell that the market already anticipated higher fuel costs. He tells clients in a note that there is some risk to fiscal 2027 earnings. Shares are at A$8.93. RBC has an outperform rating and A$11.25 target price on Qantas. ([email protected])

0055 GMT - Santos is Citi's top pick in Australian energy if Mideast tensions ease soon. But the bank would switch to Woodside Energy if the conflict drags on. That's because Woodside has higher leverage to volatility through its trading and marketing business, Citi says. Woodside also has upside from its exposure to the Japan Korea Marker, a benchmark price of liquefied natural gas in Asia. Analyst Tom Wallington highlights the potential earnings boost for Woodside from a long-term gas sale and purchase contract with Perdaman, where a component of the selling price is linked to the price of urea. "Woodside's exposure provides greater optionality in a dislocated energy market particularly as it looks to sell-down equity interest in Louisiana LNG," Citi adds, referring to its U.S. LNG export development. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0035 GMT - Higher freight and logistics costs experienced by A2 Milk will likely continue into FY 2027, says Morgans. Still, the infant milk formula supplier's profit growth should accelerate in FY 2027, analyst Belinda Moore says. That's because its supply chain investment should ensure it breaks even in terms of Ebitda, compared to a large loss before. "In addition, we forecast A2 Milk to continue to win market share, benefit from new product launches and the scaling of new regions," Morgans says. It upgrades A2 Milk to accumulate, from hold, after the stock was sold off in the wake of yesterday's downgrade to FY 2026 profit and revenue guidance. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0031 GMT - The bar for Monash IVF's board to reject a revised offer from Genesis Capital Investment and Washington H. Soul Pattinson is higher than when it knocked back the consortium's first bid in November, says Morgans. The consortium's new offer is worth A$0.90/share in cash, up from A$0.80/share proposed before. Analyst Emily Porter says Monash IVF is operating in a challenging macro environment. It's facing soft industry cycle volumes, ongoing reputational headwinds from incidents involving embryos and declining net profit. "Against that backdrop, despite a discount to comparable IVF transactions, we think the offer is compelling for shareholders," Morgans says.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0019 GMT - Santos's 1Q performance was likely mixed, Macquarie reckons. Santos has already outlined delays at the Barossa natural-gas project offshore Australia and at its Pikka Phase 1 project in Alaska. Macquarie estimates 1Q output of 23.2 million barrels of oil equivalent. That's below consensus hopes of 24.0 million barrels. "We expect to see revenues relatively flat versus the prior quarter [4Q of 2025], with sequential step-up in each quarter through 2026 [driven by lagged oil prices and volume growth contribution through the year as Barossa and Pikka ramp]," Macquarie says. It retains an outperform call on Santos, which is its top pick among large-cap Australian energy companies.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0011 GMT - The track record of A2 Milk's management should allow a degree of trust in the aftermath of its downgrade to annual sales and earnings guidance, Macquarie says. It describes A2 Milk being hit by "a perfect storm" of strong demand and supply issues. A2 Milk no longer expects to beat the net profit achieved in FY 2025 when measured on a continuing-operations basis. It also now expects annual revenue growth of low to mid double-digit percent, weaker than forecast before. "We believe management's recent track record provides credibility in the temporary nature of the downgrade, with a tough call made to pay air freight to mitigate further stock-out and brand risk, and continue to reinvest in growth," Macquarie says. It retains an outperform call on A2 Milk. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2319 GMT - Canaccord Genuity thinks it's time to add exposure to uranium equities. "Uranium is a high-beta sector but, in our view, should be a beneficiary of the increased focus on energy security which is not being reflected in stocks," the broker says. Share prices currently imply an average value of US$88/pound, it says. That compares to term prices of roughly US$90-US$93/pound, and Canaccord's long-term forecast of US$110/pound. "In light of recent volatility, we highlight names with torque and positive potential catalysts," the broker says. That includes NexGen Energy, Uranium Energy, Denison Mines and Atha Energy in North America. In Australia, it highlights Paladin Energy, Deep Yellow and Bannerman Energy and, in the U.K., Yellow Cake.([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires