Forum Topics GNG GNG GNG Deep Dive - Part 1

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

Discl: Held IRL 0.99%

Following the excellent lead and commentary from @Bear77, I opened a starter position in GNG in Mar 2026 when the fall in the price post the results announcement looked attractive. Have since deep-dived GNG, my notes are in the attached pdf.

Some context of what I am trying to achieve to put the notes in better perspective:

1. My portfolio objective was 3-fold (1) reduce exposure to tech, keeping only companies with durable and defendable moats (2) increase exposure to mining BUT via picks & shovel plays, not miners (3) minimise portfolio impact to any mining cycle.

2. While I have worked in mining and petrochemicals previously and hence have reasonable understanding of things work, I never focused on mining from an investment perspective as I do not like capital heavy companies. But SAASpocalypse showed up my over-dependence on tech and prompted a review and call to action to diversify my portfolio a bit more.

3. Hence the pivot to both SXE and GNG.

The GNG Deep Dive

The GNG deep dive is hence, a bit more wide ranging, than just GNG as a company. I needed to get a more basic understanding of the landscape which GNG operates in, the history, etc. This was a very insightful exercise, which has turned my initial very positive assessment of GNG to a high conviction one.

Taking the same approach as with SXE, I went did a detailed review of all GNG's contract wins since 2023 - this is always a very insightful exercise as it provides a fact based basis from which to draw conclusions. I then fed that to my buddy Chat, asked questions in different ways, then curating and summarising the outputs. They were pretty consistent.

@Bear77, would really appreciate your input as to whether the impression I am getting is how you see GNG!

Summary

  • GNG is actually a diversified mining capex play, not a commodity bet
  • GNG builds processing plants → stays involved for decades → compounds returns through repeat work
  • GNG is strongest in (1) Gold processing plants (2) Mid-scale EPC ($50m–$300m) (3) Brownfield upgrades (4) Australian mid-tier miners - a very nice sweetspot as this is where mining capex is structurally
  • The true competitive advantage of GR Engineering Services Ltd is its installed base of processing plants which is compounding
  • GNG is NOT riding a single commodity cycle, instead it is exposed to:
  • Gold → steady, repeatable base
  • Copper → early-stage growth
  • Energy metals → episodic upside
  • O&G → stabilising cashflow

2026 04 17 GNG Deep Dive, Part 1 - Oveview, Positioning.pdf

More to follow!

Bear77
Added a month ago

Spot on @jcmleng - GNG are certainly in a sweet spot, especially right now, as their contract win announcements this year are going to prove. That O&G "stabilising cashflow" point is also a good one, because that division - GR Production Services (GRPS, formerly Upstream PS, acquired in 2013) offers integrated operations, maintenance, and asset management services to the energy sector, specializing in conventional gas, coal seam gas (CSG) to LNG, carbon sequestration, and green hydrogen projects across Australia, and they generally operate on multi-year annual recurring revenue (longer term ARR) contracts, and many people don't even realise that GNG have that division. It does pay to note however that it is substantially smaller than their main division, GRES, or G.R. Engineering Services, which is where the bulk of their revenue is generated, and that GRES revenue can be lumpy due to the one-off nature of what they do.

When you say GNG (GRES) stays involved for decades in processing plants, that's because they get involved at the earliest planning stages providing scoping studies (SS), pre-feasibility studies (PFS), definitive/bankable feasibility studies (DFS/BFS or sometimes just called FS), FEED (front-end engineering & design work), right through to the EPC (build contracts) with EPC meaning Engineering, Procurement and Construction. GNG specialise in fixed-cost or targeted cost EPC contracts which makes them especially attractive to smaller gold/copper/whatever project developers who need some certainty around costs to put together their funding packages, particularly if it is their company's first asset that will enable them to transition from an explorer / developer to becoming a producer (pre-revenue through to profitable revenue).

Beyond that, GNG fully commission those plants and assist with getting them up to nameplate capacity or above, and their track record is of ususally achieving that on-time and on-or-under budget. Beyond that they are often called in to expand existing processing plants or to to build additional components (such as paste plants) for existing mills. GNG are currently expanding VAU's KoTH mill (having recently compled stage 1 of that expansion and moved straight into stage 2) and also EVN's Mungari gold mill (EVN called it their Mungari Future Growth Project) to expand that processing plant's capacity from 1.5 Mtpa to 4.2 Mtpa. GNG have also recently announced (8 days ago) that they have won an additional smaller contract ($68m) with EVN for EVN's Northparkes Operations (in NSW) called the Northparkes Coarse Particle Flotation Project, to upgrade the existing plant to enhance copper recovery and improve energy efficiency.

So I say that to emphasise that GNG are involved in most of these projects from the very earliest stages and remain on call to go back in and expand these mills as required or add components or make improvements to allow even further efficiencies and annual production increases, and their recent flow of contract wins underlines that.

They do mill modifications also, as they will be for MRT (formerly HRZ) with their Black Swan Mill, to convert it from nickel to gold. There's a similar opportunity for MM8 at Forrestania that GNG should also win. And they work for the smallest gold juniors up to the largest Australian gold miners. GNG announced preferred contractor status for junior goldie Brightstar's (BTR's) Laverton gold mill (worth around $115m to GNG) earlier this year and then followed that up with their largest contract win so far this year, being preferred contractor by Genesis Minerals (GMD) for the EPC contract for the Tower Hill Gold Project at Leonora in WA. The scope of work comprises the design, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning of a ~4 Mtpa gold processing facility. GNG said the estimated contract value is $225 million. Approximately $20 million of critical path long lead items had already been ordered. GMD confirmed that GNG are locked in to do that EPC contract on page 1 of their (GMD's) 16th April (yesterday's) March 2026 Quarterly Activities Report: "GR Engineering Services (ASX: GNG) to build new Tower Hill mill at Leonora; 3.5-4.0Mtpa, capital cost A$250-280m, new plant will deliver substantial operating cost savings."

I have talked about other contracts that GNG are very likely to win because they have done all of the studies for those projects - and that newsflow will underline just how busy they are going to be over the next few years with all of these projects. Even gold projects that had been mothballed in prior years are being dusted off now with A$ gold staying over $6,000 per ounce (currently trading at around A$6,700/oz or US$4,800/ounce). The gold price is now back to being in the green over every time frame from 1 day to 20 years:

b4249c7c543da3cf9777b3952915b11cb7688b.jpeg

(Source: Goldprice.org just now: https://goldprice.org/)

As you rightly point out @jcmleng, GNG are diversified across commodities - they don't ONLY do gold mills, but gold mills are their bread and butter work and they have strong tailwinds right now.

So, yeah, you're absolutely on the right track with your deep dive into GNG so far.

P.S. I just read your attachment - I reckon you've got it all covered. Love your work!


Disclosure: GNG is my largest real money position (investment outside of my own home) and one of my two largest positions here on SM.

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Bear77
Added a month ago

BTW, on Wednesday of this week, I sold all of the LYL in the one-stock-portfolio I manage for our two children and reinvested those proceeds into GNG (also on Wednesday), not because I've turned bearish on Lycopodium, but because I've become MORE bullish on GR Engineering. I promised our kids I would invest their money in the best and safest company I could find with the best risk / return profile, and currently that is GNG, both from an income (dividends) perspective and from a capital growth perspective.

The short version is that as good as LYL look, GNG look even better at current levels, and I see more near-term upside in GNG over the next 12 to 24 months.

Longer term, LYL should perform well, and I hold both companies in my own income portfolio (and here), but in terms of that one stock portfolio that holds our kids' investments, GNG is the company I've switched it into this week.

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