The nature of such businesses is that earnings can be lumpy and difficult to forecast. The transition to a SaaS model will help, but that will take time and impact revenue short term. I try to judge value based on a 3-5 year outlook of earnings, and by applying a reasonable multiple framed around longer term average growth expectations. It takes a great deal of patience, but the risk of permanent loss of capital is low given Citadel is a profitable, well capitalised business with long established customers in a growing and relatively defensive part of the IT industry. It even pays a dividend. Looks like i pulled the trigger too early, but to my mind, in the absence of any negative i'm not aware of, the value proposition has only improved.

Cheers @shivrak. There is no doubt this is an opportunity assuming there are no further worms to come out of the woodwork, but the market is anticipatory and often, such decisive moves portend further issues, hence my reticence. I follow Matt and although I am aware of that article, I haven't yet had the time to read it. Will see what clues I can gather there now haha.

A good recent example of this is CGC. Bad news kept begetting bad news, and the price also trended down in anticipation before running off a cliff when the actual news hit the wires. CGL has far better economics of course.

Guidance reaffirmed at the AGM, and CGL is off to the races!

Another spanner in the works today with the chairman and CEO departing...doesn't have a great look to it.

In the past year we've seen some great companies with exceptional economics and industry positioning get sold off for short term factors. In hindsight, they were wonderful buying opportunities for long term investors. Specifically, i'm talking about IRI and HSN. Personally, i think it's a wonderful thing when a quality company gets sold off -- it's like shares are on sale. Of course, no guarantee that Citadel will recover, or if it does it could take years. But I cant see any structural problems with the business. When i look into my crystal ball, i see a company that is larger and more profitable in 10 years time (but i have no idea what shares will do in the interim)