Forum Topics WEB WEB Webjet Ltd General Discussion
JackJack
Added 6 years ago

Does anyone anywhere know what is going to happen to Webjet?

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Bear77
Added 6 years ago

The simple answer to your question is "No" unfortunately @JackJack. What we know from Webjet is what they've announced to the market, and that (to date) is that they've so far been unable to conclude the capital raising that they have been trying to arrange - and that the negotiations are ongoing. We don't know what happens from here. It is very likely that if they resume trading (and they probably will at some point, but that is by no means guaranteed) they will open at a MUCH lower price than where they last traded. If they are able to arrange a capital raising, it will also be VERY dilutionary to existing shareholders, unless they are allowed to maintain their existing exposure by tipping in additional money themselves in which case it becomes a costly exercise to maintain your exposure. There are a number of ways this might play out, and all of them are bad for existing shareholders in the short term (at the very least). The best outcome might be for them to stay suspended from trading until there is more certainty around the timeline for a return to more normal conditions for them. It might actually take that long to secure a funding solution that they can live with. Sorry I can't help more than that.

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Bear77
Added 6 years ago

Some further reading: https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2020/03/25/webjet-web-shares-suspended-is-it-the-bargain-of-the-century/ https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/webjet-silent-as-investor-talks-fail-to-resolve-financial-woes-20200320-p54c5u.html https://www.afr.com/street-talk/three-brokers-kick-off-webjet-s-search-for-250m-20200323-p54cu6 https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/03/20/with-borders-closed-travel-stocks-are-in-an-absolute-crisis/

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Bear77
Added 6 years ago

Some further reading: https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2020/03/25/webjet-web-shares-suspended-is-it-the-bargain-of-the-century/ https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/webjet-silent-as-investor-talks-fail-to-resolve-financial-woes-20200320-p54c5u.html https://www.afr.com/street-talk/three-brokers-kick-off-webjet-s-search-for-250m-20200323-p54cu6 https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/03/20/with-borders-closed-travel-stocks-are-in-an-absolute-crisis/

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thunderhead
Added 6 years ago

Is the Strawman (or anyone who knows the company well) concerned about the solvency risk, either of Webjet and/or their main trade debtors? We have already seen Thomas Cook go under, and the impact that had on the company's earnings. The shares look mighty cheap but only if the company can tide through the COVID-19 crisis without falling over. Even if they raise capital, it is likely to be hugely dilutionary.

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Bear77
Added 6 years ago

I don't know the company well, but I had a look at them this morning. I wouldn't touch them at this point. They do have some net debt, but not as much as FLT do now. The trouble with lending covenants is that most companies won't generally disclose them to the public, so we usually only hear about them after they've been breached. I know that they do vary a lot. Some even stipulate minimum market capitalisation, which really means that if the share price falls below a certain level they can breach that particular lending covenant. I hope most companies don't have one of those covenants. Most of them do centre around revenue and earnings levels, and that can be a big worry when earnings are going to be hit as much as they are with companies in this particular sector - even if it does turn out to be a short-term hit. Companies with higher overheads such as FLT - with their bricks-and-mortar stores as well as their web presence - are likely to see earnings hit harder - because of higher fixed costs - but WEB will still be hit. They might be hit less, due to lower fixed costs, but they'll still be hit. And we don't know by how much yet, and nor do they, which is why they've withdrawn their earnings guidance. In this environment - with lending covenants largely unknown (by us at least), it pays to tread very carefully with smalls and mid-caps that have net debt and are going to see earnings hit significantly. In my opinion.

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AUROPAL
Added 6 years ago

Excellent straw InvestorRN, really comprehensive and shows a thorough understanding of the business. A valuable contribution and much appreciated.

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thunderhead
Added 6 years ago

Yes, neat straw. I sold out at $12 because the negative impacts of COVID-19 were quite obvious to me. I am still interested in owning the stock again, especially because it appears to be "in play" and could get an opportunistic bid.

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BlueStreak
Added 6 years ago

Looks like I doubled up on WEB too early, as its share price has continued to sink. That'll teach me for not having the patience to wait for the inflection point. I've read Matt Joass' article on the importance of inflection points too. :( A good lesson to learn!

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