Forum Topics NVX NVX NOVONIX Ltd General Discussion
elpaso96
Added 3 years ago

For reference:

This was the CNBC article that caused the share price to go down. Reading the article it is abundantly clear that the content is outside the scope of Novonix. Tesla negotiates with Tier 1 battery companies because Tesla is the largest customer in the cathode and anode market. Novonix must produce cathode/anode materials before they get recognised by Tesla.

While Novonix is valued at a multiple on the cash they have in the balance sheet, they should not be punished for an article like that. Although, this is the stock market and the market remains irrational longer than your expectation.

The business is still a science lab and their intention is to generate 10K tonnes of anode materials in 2023. Basically, 2023 is when the business is expected to graduate from R&D to battery materials producer. I still have my sceptic hat as it is not that easy to generate that much anode in a short period of time. Look at Tesla's 4680 production, there were multiple delays due to the Maxwell machines thinning out the electrode too much and making it too brittle for the winding process. Soo, I expect Novonix to go through similar bumps during the anode production phase. Luckily they have enough cash to counter production delays.

Novonix's technology is super impressive. I retract my statement of Novonix should be taken out of ESG. I did more digging and actually, the process is not as energy-intensive as I thought for synthetic graphite. Bumpy road ahead for the cathode commercialisation but it's all about the anode in the short term.

Watching the company from a distance although I missed out on a 20bagger :D

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NewbieHK
Added 4 years ago

I would love to see a valuation by one of the holders on this $2.4B company. I am struggling to see where one starts a valuation on these earnings and just what metrics if any can be realistically used to come to this or any  valuation. I am guessing quite a few holders got in on this very early and have cleaned up on the insane run up but, as a non-holder looking in I am flabbergast by that daily turnover and who is buying at these levels??? 

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CanadianAussie
Added 4 years ago

Hi NewbieHK

 

I discuss valuation in my stock pitch presentation which can be found here https://strawman.com/meetings

You could theoretically do a DCF but until we see steady streams of revenue coming in and expenses from their anode sales, it's not worth the time as there are too many unknowns at this stage.

It is certainly overvalued and the continued run up may have something to do with them seeking a NASDAQ listing and interest from North American investors. Back when they were trading at $4/share they were priced to perfect execution to 2023.

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NewbieHK
Added 4 years ago

@CanadianAussie

thanks for the reply I was unable to watch the pitch live. Unfortunately, I also haven't gotten around to looking at it on replay. I have it locked it in for my lunch break tomorrow. Cheers 

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elpaso96
Added 4 years ago

Should Novonix be pulled out of the ESG index after the investment from Phillips 66?

Phillips 66 is one of the oldest and dirtiest oil refiners in the US. Operating since 1875 with expertise in manufacturing speciality coke for lead acid batteries. I know they just provided the capital but they also put a non-executive director on the board. Are they trying to takeover and dirty the supply chain? 

This whole saga reek of papa Baker. Shareholders making money so who am I to judge? I missed the boat with this one :D 

No matter how it pans out a really significant moment for the EV industry. Oil and Gas coming in (we hope it is a good result where they don't dirty the supply chain but they have a long history of dirtying things and lobbying hard). 

 

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CanadianAussie
Added 4 years ago

Hi elpaso96

 

I have a straw up on Natural vs Synthetic graphite I'd encourage you to read to get a better understanding of the requirements to make synthetic graphite and the environmental impacts. NVXs method is much more environmentally friendly than how it's done in China. The alternative is natural graphite which requires significant mining.

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CanadianAussie
Added 5 years ago

A couple random thoughts I had on their recent presentation and Q&A

With non-disclosures in place it's possible NVX already has, or will, a deal with Tesla and we never hear about it.

They aspire to be a "household name". Are you really going to look at a Panasonic battery and think "there's a Novonix anode or cathode in there"? Or do they have to make an entire battery to achieve this?

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