Forum Topics WGN WGN Wagners Holding Co Ltd General Discussion
elpaso96
Added 4 years ago

@hiluxlover - I think your straw was meant to be for discussion. If so, make it a post in the forum section of the company :) Straws are meant to be your thesis on why you believe the company can do well etc.. Obviously valuation speaks for itself, depending on what method you use you put it there explaining your reasons. In essence think of straws as part of your investment journal where your assumptions and understanding changes over time as the company reports quarterly, half yearly etc.. I find it incredibly useful as I can go back to my past straws and see if my thesis has changed as the company did something I did not anticipate etc... 

Regarding your question on Wagner, it is a very interesting company and I believe it is most suitable for dividend/income investors. Razor thin margins as they make construction materials and new building materials. While revenues are very high at around $230M per year, the operating margins are between 5% to 9%. Hence, either their revenues have to grow rapidly like $1B p.a. where a 5% margin is $50M which is meaningful or their margins has to expand over time with differentiating products.They are comepting in a real tough industry in different product lines. For example:

  • Cement and lime – The top five cement-focused manufacturers in Australia are estimated to account for 69% of industry revenue, including Adelaide Brighton, Boral and Cement Australia (50/50 joint venture between Holcim and Hanson). The South East Queensland cement market is dominated by Sunstate Cement (50/50 joint venture between Adelaide Brighton and Boral), Wagners Cement (That's why Wagners is the largest independantly owned cement manufacturer in South East Queensland) and Cement Australia. 
  • Ready-mix concrete – The Australian ready-mix concrete market is dominated by Boral, Hanson, Holcim, Barro Group and Adelaide Brighton. There is also a proliferation of smaller players competing for a share in regional markets, for example BGC in Western Australia. 
  • Precast concrete products – Production of precast concrete products in Australia is dominated by several large market participants, with each producing different categories of precast products with varying specifications. Key market participants include Adelaide Brighton, Fletcher Building (Rocla Pipes), CSR (Hebel), James Hardie, Holcim (Humes), Brickworks (Austral Precast), Laing O’Rourke (Austrak) and BCP Precast. 
  • Aggregates – Wagners’ major competitors are national construction materials providers with company-owned quarries such as Boral, Hanson, Holcim and Adelaide Brighton and smaller regional or local quarry operators.

All of this information can be found on the Prospectus 

Wagners should have stable but slow revenue growth for the forseeable future (that's if there's no apocolyptic event like a cyclone etc..). Hence, the market does not give a high valuation for independents. Price to Earnings ratio of 123? I dunno if that is right, but it looks right considering the razor thin margins. Anyhow, for me and my high growth portfolio, I don't really touch this as the market does not give a high multiple for low revenue growth businesses (despite those businesses making a profit). Also, the dividend is uncertain, especially if construction slows down. The management is family-run so that should give "value investors" comfort. If the strawman portfolio started with $1B and I need low growth business that can outperform interest rate on a bank deposit - Wagners would be up for discussion. Also, James Hardie and Boral should be on the radar for this type of investor. 

Bear in mind, I only spent 30mins looking at the company, and I made up my mind very quickly based on the prospectus and past historic performance. If you believe there is exponential growth, then the market is certainly misvaluing the company. From my perspective, I don't see it. Hope that answers your question and welcome to Strawman :)    

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