Forum Topics SP1 SP1 This is a crash
Bear77
5 years ago

I like to back companies where I have good reason to trust management to run the company in the best interests of ordinary shareholders (shareholders being the owners of the company after all).  While this management team certainly have skin in the game, they seem to be looking after themselves a lot more than they are looking after the interests of ordinary retail shareholders.  The main accusation / suggestion in the media reports yesterday - based on the Ownership Matters report - was that $500 million worth of stock was paid as a management bonus, but the difference between collecting this award and missing out came down to just $1,347 in revenue and once the award was claimed, iSignthis' top-line subsequently crashed the next half.  Not so much market manipulation as revenue manipulation it seems to me - to obtain a massive stock bonus which dilluted everybody else - and caused a stock crash once the true revenue trajectory became known.  Or am I missing something?

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Bear77
5 years ago

Taking losses in your stride is never easy, but definitely a skill worth developing in this game. The important thing is having your own clear understanding of when you will sell down or sell out. I held RCR Tomlinson last year, they were a high conviction holding and I had a heavy weighting to them. I thought their move into solar farm construction was a very good one and would set the company up for better years ahead. I also thought Dr. Paul Dalgleish, their MD/CEO was an excellent manager and the right man for the job and I trusted that he knew what he was doing. When he sold down his personal RCR shareholding (apparently to pay a tax bill, although the sale was clearly a lot larger than any tax bill would have been) - twice - I gave him the benefit of the doubt. I was wrong on all counts. I realised this when they were in trading suspension last year, and I sold out as soon as they emerged from it. They subsequently went broke and are now no longer trading. OncoSil Medical (OSL) was another one of my high conviction holdings. However, as soon as they announced that the BSI's Clinical Oversight Committee had declined to recommend their pancreatic cancer treatment (medical device) for a CE Mark (to enable UK & European sales to commence) based on insufficient medical benefit demonstrated by OSL, I sold out. My view is now that OSL's management must either be incompetent or dishonest (or both) to have lead us all to believe that the granting of the CE Mark was a mere formality and was "imminent" (it had been imminent for about 3 years). They may get that CE Mark eventually, but not without spending a lot more money on longer trials that show survival rates. And that will take capital, which means they will have to raise more capital. However, the reason I sold was because I completely lost my faith in the honesty and competency of their management. And that's my point. That's my trigger - management. In ISX's case, I can understand people dumping the stock if they no longer trust management - and that's regardless of the level of losses they are sitting on. I am always aware of how much money I will be losing when I sell out at a loss, but that doesn't affect my decision to sell. The decision to sell is based around my investing framework - which includes me trusting a company's management, and I usually lose far more money when I ignore my rules and make exceptions. We all make mistakes. Some of them are not obvious until later. However, my view is that you have to cut your losses early, even when they're big losses, once you realise your investment thesis is busted. And let your winners run. While a number of people deciding they no longer want to be in a stock at the same time is frustrating for the true believers who are left holding stock worth a lot less, it is completely understandable. My questions would be - do you think the management are still worth trusting? Are they looking after themselves before ordinary shareholders? Do you care? Are they likely to make further decisions which potentially could result in further erosion of confidence by remaining shareholders? No matter how good a company's business model is, I want excellent management - who I feel I can trust - running that company if I'm going to put my hard earned into it. And I don't think I'm alone in that stance. Price is not the only consideration.

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