Forum Topics SAR SAR Nov/Dec losses
umop3pisdn
Added 5 years ago

Is anyone able to shed some light on why the share price has dipped in this period? All I'm seeing is positives with regards to news/profitability etc. Fundamentals haven't changed and management is stable, no?

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Bear77
Added 5 years ago

It could be because the market doesn't like them buying a 50% share in KCGM whose main asset is the Kalgoorlie Super Pit. KCGM (Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines) was a 50/50 JV between the world's two largest listed gold mining companies, Barrick Gold and Newmont Goldcorp. Barrick were keen to exit Australia, and were happy to sell their 50% share of KCGM to Saracen, and it looks like they got a reasonable price too, because Saracen are partly justifying the price by suggesting there is still plenty of exploration upside there. That is to say, they are paying up not just for what they know is under the ground, but also for what they think there might be. To be fair, it's one of the richest gold areas in the world, so any tenement alongside Kalgoorlie that is considered underexplored (due to the owners not being particularly interested in exploring it apparently) is probably worth a motser. However, the market might be asking themselves, if one of the two largest gold producers in the world doesn't want it, can it really be that good? Personally, I don't think it's that simple. I think that Mark Bristow (the top man at Barrick) has made it clear in a recent interview that he's not interested gold mining in Australia because our own best gold mining companies like Northern Star and Evolution Mining are just too damn good at it. Bristow sees Barrick's near-term future growth in Canada. That's where his focus is currently. That's where he thinks the best opportunities are. He said they have a dedicated team just working on Canadian opportunities. "I won't go to Australia" he said at the time. Unfortunately for him, he was already here, via a 50% stake in KCGM, but he's now offloaded that to Saracen, as he was widely expected to do (to sell it, but we didn't know to who, until Saracen announced it). Bristow is relatively new. He founded and led the large South African RandGold and after they merged with Barrick, he took over the top job at Barrick Gold, and he's making his presence felt - talking about the company's new strategy and direction, and he thinks gold mining in Australia is just too hard, he doesn't like the competition here. Good projects in Australia are not cheap and if it's a good project there is probably an Australian gold miner all over it already. He thinks Canada is about 10 years behind Australia in that respect and there are more opportunities there in terms of M&A. So it's just positioning. New boss, new direction. And Saracen swoops in, buys Barrick's share of KCGM and becomes one of Australia's largest 4 gold producers (alongside NCM, NST & EVN). The question is - did Saracen get a good deal, or did they overpay. When Northern Star (NST) bought Pogo (in Alaska) the market loved it, because they thought Bill Beament would work his magic yet again. When St Barbara (SBM) bought Atlantic Gold Corp with their Nova Scotia mine and various gold projects - in Canada - the market did NOT like it. When Evolution (EVN) announced last week (on Nov 26th) that they've bought the Red Lake gold complex in Canada off Newmont Goldcorp, the market did NOT like it - for a couple of hours - and then they DID like it, for a couple of days, then they did NOT - again - for another couple of days, and EVN is now back to a few cents more than they were before the announcement. But a lot of that can be simply down to the gold price and sentiment around gold. When Trump hits the tweet button or opens his mouth, gold tends to rise and Australian gold mining companies' share prices rise too, and when the market thinks a trade deal (even a "phase 1" trade deal) between the USA and China is likely to happen soon, gold falls and gold miners' SPs fall too. Sometimes it's not just about the company - it's about the industry that they're in. Sure - Saracen's SP has been heading SE since August, but have a look at the graphs of Australia's top 3 gold miners, NSM, NST & EVN, and they all look pretty similar - with a nice run up into August, and then all down hill since. It's not the company - it's the commodity. It's gold. That's all.

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Bear77
Added 5 years ago

Sorry NCM - not NSM - very near the bottom of my previous comment. Also - Bristow isn't "new" to gold mining - at all - I meant he's relatively new as the top man at Barrick Gold. But the bottom line is that most of the decline in the SP of SAR since August is sentiment driven and has affected Newcrest (NCM), Northern Star (NST) and Evolution (EVN) in the exact same way, as can be seen by looking at the graph of each of them and noting the SP decline in all of their graphs since August. Those 3 (NCM, NST & EVN) are the largest gold miners listed on the ASX and the 3 that produce the most gold annually, and Saracen is moving up into fourth place with their recent acquisition of 50% of KCGM (and with it - half of the Super Pit - and all the gold it produces) in addition to Saracen's other gold mines, so it's sensible to compare their graphs. They're all reasonably similar.

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umop3pisdn
Added 5 years ago

Thank you very much for such a detailed response!

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