See previous macro discussions about my overall opinion about the price of everything. I have somewhat capitulated and only hold 10% cash now. It’s difficult to see where to put funds to work to achieve a return commensurate with the risk. I have paid down some investment mortgage debt, and rebalanced from overvalued tech stocks into a few commodity producers. Not something I usually hold. Whilst it’s easy to see things crashing at any point, it could easily keep going for a few more years. It’s uncharted territory and no one has a clue. This combination of interest rates, QE, inflation and asset prices has never existed before. EVER. In history. So no one really has a clue Interesting times.

I used BBOZ last year. It ended up costing me dearly. A fairly blunt instrument. But it did expose how fragile my portfolio was (slightly leveraged, without any non-correlating hedge) . So, learning form my mistakes, and to build some anti-fragility, I have eliminated all debt, with a LOC loan open if I need it, and a 15% hedge consisting of Gold/ Silver/Bitcoin/gold miners. The idea is, this hedge has a low correlation to the broad equities market, although in big falls, everything goes down in the short term as margin calls generally triggers a sale of everything not nailed down. The other part of the equation is investing in businesses that have no debt, have high GMs, and have secular tailwinds driving demand for their products / services. Although, ironically, some gold miners in my hedge have a fair bit of debt. The idea is to be able to get to the other side of the downturn, without being forced to liquidate at the worst time, and, ideally pick up some bargains along the way.