IMO the sidelines is a good place to be. I think it is too early to be thinking of buying across the board.

For example, The banks might have liquidity but their margins have been crushed. Furthermore they are providing repayment holidays, so that is another reason for profits to slide. ANZ is short on franking credits. I expect all banks will cut their dividends, then try to maintain them.

You have to consider that the markets were at very high P/E ww. They will at least mean revert, then they will adjust to whatever recessionar impact there is on consumption and employment.

Yes there are a few bargains IF you are prepared to hold well into 2021 (3Q). PAR is my example of a bargain. IMO DYOR.

IMO governments, PM & COAG are not doing enough soon enough.

The sitation ww today is at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The curve is exponentially steep, and for Australia it is doubling in less than a week. Try calculating 2^10, it's easy 2,4,..1024 times where you started in just 10 weeks.

Where is Australia today, we are at1072 cases with an icrease of 144. SO that's well over 1m in 10 weeks from now.

I would like members of Strawman to take a step for youselves and all those you know....

I just signed the petition "Australian Health Protection Principal Committee: Beat COVID-19 by closing down nearly everything for 14 days" and i hope you will help by adding your name, and inviting others.

Essentially, If governments Federal and state don't hurry up there will be more than a million cases in 10 weeks time.

You may have some different ideas on what should be done when, but what is needed is to get the key politicians and medical experts to take more action sooner.

That is because the number of cases is doubling in less than a week, and it is already over 1,000.

That is why we need to put this petition in front of them.. Please sign the petition at the site below and invite others to do the same:

https://www.change.org/COVID-19_Challenge

Agreed the sidelines is still the best place to be (for me at least)

- Currently markets are all over the place because of the uncertainty associated with the virus i.e how long will it last just how big will be its impact etc etc. I think that we all agree that when the situation changes and the virus is under control we can expect a rebound or sorts in the market (whether it be U shaped or V shaped is anybody's guess).

- BUT what happens in Aug/Sept onwards when the the reporting season is in full swing and the specific impact off the virus on invidual companies is learnt. Will the market?

1. Fall because the results were worse than expect?  

2. Rise because results were better than expected? 

3. Rise because even though results were not as expects most of the bad news is out of the way?

I believe that even though the market is "forward looking" and based on whether, and by how much, actuals differ from expectations, RIGHT NOW the market may be more concerned for the uncertainty of the health extent of the virus' impact and the full impact on the market of the financial extent of the virus' impact will not be felt until actual company figures are released in  the reporting season.

 So to invest now is only a gamble on whether or not you expect that the financial impact of the virus is going to be worse or better than the market expects come the reporting season. 

That being said though it might be a good strategy to have a bit of a flutter both ways. If you have cash invest some when it looks like the virus is abating  but keep some left for the impact of the reporting season. 

Hi Andrew,

Thanks for the reassuring 'Stick to the Plan' blog.

At what level would you look to get back into PME ?

High quality business, for all the reasons you outline -> but valuation always been the challenge.

Keep up the great work, through this extraordinary time.

Cheers
Mark