Friday 6th Feb 2026: 8pm (Adelaide time):

90 minutes ago, that looked like this (slightly different daily moves):

The uptrend still looks intact to me.

OK, here's what the main broad general ASX indices have done over the past 12 months with today's falls listed top right (below):

The Small Ords had risen higher than the All Ords, so has fallen further in the "correction" or whatever you want to call the collective moves over the past six trading days, however the Small Ords is still up +10.6% over 12 months vs only +2% for the larger cap All Ords Index.

Now, let's add in gold and gold miners.

Again, the rises have been higher, so the falls have been greater, but they're still well up - in fact those are excellent returns, especially over the past 6 months.

Now, let's look at eight of the largest Australian gold producers:

We can see from that (above) that the higher they rose, the more they have fallen, but they're all still up - a lot! The exceptions are NST, EVN and RRL who have fallen less than the others from their recent high points in late January.

NST have probably fallen less because they are the biggest company of that group and they produce the most gold (so are lower risk) and also because they (NST) have risen by the least amount; EVN maybe because they're the second largest and also have a lot of copper production, and RRL because... I don't know; I don't hold Regis (RRL) and I have stopped following them closely since I sold out (back in 2024 I think it was), but I guess they just have more support at this point in time and people are prepared to buy the dips more than with most of those other companies.

Now let's look at some smaller emerging gold producers and gold project developers. I'll keep the best (WGX, +166%) and worst (NST, +47%, "least best" perhaps rather than worst) performers from that graph above, for some perspective, delete the rest, and add 4 juniors (MEK, HRZ, MM8 & NMG):

I now hold NMG again but I only bought back in this past week (on Thursday), but how's that for a 12m return: +416.67% !! Down from +520% in January, but still up +416% today. I did hold them last year but sold out mid-year; I clearly should have held onto them!

There's plenty at the smaller company end of the Aussie gold sector that have moved by even more, such as Forrestania Resources (FRS) whose share price has risen by an outstanding +5,456% - yes, that's over five thousand percent in 12 months, and they're an earlier stage emerging project developer; If I add FRS to any of these graphs, everything else just flatlines to the bottom due to the scaling required to allow for FRS' +5,456% return over the past 12 months, which is why FRS is not included here - they're in a class of their own - well, they're not too lonely; they have some friends at the speccy end, but I'm looking here at more advanced and derisked project developers, some of which are already producing gold.

MEK is producing from their own recently re-commissioned mill, so are HRZ and NMG via either ore sales or toll treatment of their ore at other companies' gold mills, and MM8 own a mill but it needs to be converted from nickel to gold and copper, and that mill conversion and refurbishment process is progressing via GNG - my largest holding today - I bought another 10,000 GNG shares this arvo.

I'll now add in my own two largest gold producer holdings at this point in time, BC8 and CYL, who are also both "emerging producers", both already producing gold but still regarded as gold juniors, however both have seriously expanding gold production profiles over the next few years if they do what they say they're going to do.

BC8's and CYL's 12 month % rises on the right side there cover up some other companies' numbers, so that's why I've added them in last - the covered up percentages can be read on the previous screenshot above.

BC8 is up +87.41% and CYL is up +79.85% over the past 12 months, despite their recent falls. BC8 has fallen less than CYL over the past 6 trading days; there seems to be some buying support there for BC8, similar to NST, EVN and RRL in a previous screenshot in this post. CYL look to me like the better opportunity to be topping up at these reduced prices from their recent high because they've dropped further - I added them to my Strawman portfolio this week. I already held BC8 here. BC8 and CYL are two of my top three largest positions in my SMSF (along with ARB, who are not a gold company).

These last two graphs have adjusted scaling to accommodate NMG's (New Murchison Gold's) +416.67% share price rise over the past 12 months.

Except for NST, ALL of them have beaten the 51% rise of GOLD (the physical GOLD ETF that tracks the gold price) and they've all thrashed the All Ords, the Small Ords and the ASX100, the ASX200 and the ASX300.

And that's all after last Friday's falls (Jan 30th) as well as the falls during this past week. These prices and graphs above are all current as at 8pm on Friday 6th Feb 2026.

So, yeah, there's a sea of red out there, but when you zoom out, it ain't that bad in the gold sector. I reckon it's still the place to be in terms of having some decent exposure in your investment portfolio in these turbulent times.

Disclosure: Of those companies in these graphs, I currently hold NST, EVN, GMD, CMM, RMS, MEK, HRZ, NMG, BC8 and CYL. I also hold others that are not in these graphs such as ALK, VAU, GG8, TCG, GHM, GBR, AZY, KAL and as of yesterday (Thurs 5th Feb) BTR as well.

Tuesday 3rd February 2026, 7:50pm: What crash?

Sure, it was a big two day drawdown, but the gold price over all timeframes shown there in both currencies in the tables below the charts is back to positive already - all green - and it's only Tuesday!

If they had a one week timeframe, it would be in the red, but over the past 30 days we're actually still in front, as shown above, thanks to today's gold price rise.

Looks like I missed my window to buy shares in a few more junior goldies. Yesterday was the day to buy, not today. It's always easy in hindsight.

Edit: Additional: I should mention the graphs above only go up to yesterday (Monday) but the gold prices at the top were current when I posted this and the tables below that show different time frame performances do include today's (Tuesday's) gold price rise (which is shown at the top). There are small differences between the "Today" line in the tables and the gold price movements at the top of the screenshot because they update at different times, so the gold price was moving when I took the snap, hence the variance, but regardless, the rise today clawed back yesterday's fall and started eating into Friday's fall as well. I think we'll end this week with an overall weekly gold price rise.

Monday 2nd Feb, 2026, 10:40pm Adelaide time: Just thought I'd share how I'm playing this volatility in the gold sector currently. Here on SM I've just placed some sell orders that should take me out of some of my low conviction positions or reduce them a little where they are medium conviction (trades more than long term holds) and I've placed an order for a starting position in Catalyst Metals (CYL) which has dropped from their recent year high of $9.80 (set during last Tuesday, 27/01/2026) down to close at $7.93 this arvo (-20% lower). They are the largest position in my SMSF, all bought at prices lower than today's close, so it's about time they were in my SM virtual portfolio as well.

I've also placed a top up order for more ARB which seems to have stopped falling now. They may fall further, but happy to be accumulating more ARB at these levels anyway. That's not a gold company but it's my only other buy order here now - other than CYL - so I thought I'd mention it - the rest are all sells to free up cash for those two buys. That's how I usually operate in real life, stay mostly fully invested most of the time, and then when I want to buy something, I sell shares in other companies to pay for buys. In this case I'm selling shares in companies whose share prices have recently been beaten down, but I'm buying shares in two much higher quality companies that have also been sold down.

However, I'm not having to do that IRL this time, because I got caught holding some cash prior to the start of this two-day sell off that began on Friday, and I haven't deployed any of it yet, I figured I'd see if the selling continued today before choosing what moves to make. What I have done this evening is place 5 buy orders in for 5 junior goldies, being one producer (Meeka Metals - MEK) and 4 project developers who I won't name yet except to say that one of them was mentioned as one to watch by @BkrDzn a few weeks back, and I have been, and they had some positive news out today and their share price dropped anyway - and they already have a mill, recently acquired from another junior goldie - enough hints - I'll disclose the names once the trades go through.

The MEK buy is a top-up, since I recently sold some up around 30 cents and they closed at 22 cps today. The others are new positions, although I have held 3 of them IRL previously, although not here on SM. All of those real money buy orders are at prices that are below today's closing prices, so they may or may not go through tomorrow - except for MEK which I'm happy to pay today's closing price for (22 cps). If they bounce tomorrow I'll miss out on that top up also, but that's OK; Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Anyway - I'll provide further details on how those trades go tomorrow evening, but for now I'd just thought I'd share how I'm approaching this price volatility as a potential opportunity.

P.S. I'll be at a funeral tomorrow so won't be adjusting any of my buy or sell prices during the day after about 11:30am, other than later after the market has already closed if the trades do not go through. What will be, will be.

Saturday 31st January 2026: Just on the turmoil in global markets yesterday:

From the AFR early this morning:

https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/trump-demanded-a-fed-dove-he-picked-a-hawk-20260131-p5nygc

Opinion

Trump demanded a Fed dove. He picked a hawk.

While Donald Trump pledged to pick someone who would usher in easier monetary policy, Kevin Warsh has been regarded as a hawk since his time at the Fed ended in 2011.

Jonathan Levin

Jan 31, 2026 – 2.59am

President Donald Trump turned the search for a new Federal Reserve chairman into a game show. The winner is the most curious possible pick: Kevin Warsh. That choice is bound to add to market volatility and satisfy no one — probably not even the president.

Above all, the choice will be a source of tremendous cognitive dissonance across Wall Street and policy circles. While Trump pledged to pick a Fed chairman who would usher in easier monetary policy, Warsh has been regarded as a hawk since his five-year stint as a Fed governor ended in 2011.

In announcing his decision to choose Warsh, the president described him as “central casting”. Bloomberg

That profile will make it hard for Warsh to build credibility. If he lowers interest rates, markets will perceive him as a Trump lackey who has abandoned his principles. If he holds rates high for too long, he’ll be at loggerheads with the president in no time — and that will generate volatility of its own.

Until his term ends in May, chairman Jerome Powell will now have a shadow, creating mixed messages for markets to parse and potentially leading to misunderstandings.

Warsh’s instincts are well established. In November 2010, when the unemployment rate was 9.8 per cent and the personal consumption expenditures deflator — a favoured inflation gauge — just 1.3 per cent, Warsh pushed back strongly against a second round of quantitative easing.

“If I were in your chair, I would not be leading the committee in this direction,” he told then chairman Ben S. Bernanke in transcripts released with a five-year lag. With the benefit of hindsight, many observers of the “jobless recovery” of the 2010s now wish that we’d done more to support the economy, not less.

A decade and a half later, Warsh was still pushing a broadly similar message. He criticised the Fed’s moves during the pandemic, and blamed money-printing and fiscal stimulus for the inflation that ensued, giving short shrift to supply chains and the Russian invasion of Ukraine that drove global energy prices higher. He continues to speak out against the perceived dangers of the Fed’s large balance sheet and even criticised the Fed’s modest rate reductions in 2024.

Tilts dovish

It’s only since entering the conversation about the next Fed chairman that he’s become a dove, and even now, there’s some nuance to that statement: He has advocated for lower rates but also a substantially smaller balance sheet.

Warsh’s path to the Fed isn’t without complications. North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who sits on the Banking Committee, has vowed to block any of Trump’s Fed nominees until the US Justice Department resolves an investigation into the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters. He should, otherwise, face little further opposition among Republican senators.

Still, Warsh appears to have been picked because he was one of the last men standing when Trump’s team soured on Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council. As recently as December, Hassett was the overwhelming favourite in betting markets.

But the Hassett bets seemed to cause the term premium on bonds to drift higher, and Wall Street executives reportedly warned the administration about picking someone seen as being so close to Trump for the independent central bank.

The rub on Hassett was that his credibility had been marred by his jobs working as a spokesman for the Trump administration, in which he has had to take indefensible positions. But it was always possible that the real Kevin Hassett, once in the job, would have asserted his independence and even shown good policy instincts. Perhaps he would return to the worldview he espoused during his years in the think tank world and advising more moderate Republicans including Mitt Romney and John McCain.

Rigidly hawkish

In this case, we already know that the real Kevin Warsh is rigidly hawkish. If we get any other version, it probably tells us he’s kowtowing to Trump. His personal proximity to the president, as the son-in-law of prominent Republican donor Ronald Lauder — the son of makeup scion Estee Lauder — won’t help with the optics either.

His candidacy also appears to have gotten a bump for the most superficial of reasons: his appearance. In the social media post announcing the decision, the president described him as “central casting”.

It’s perfectly possible, of course, that Warsh will evolve into a more conventional Fed chairman under the watchful eye of markets. But his early days on the job are likely to prove rocky.

The only consolation is that Warsh won’t have absolute power to steer the central bank. Policy is set by a group of 12 voters on the Federal Open Market Committee, and it will take sound and persuasive economic arguments to meaningfully change the direction of policy.

Other than that, this isn’t a great look for the world’s most important central bank. Policymakers are navigating large risks to both the stable prices and maximum employment parts of their dual mandate. The path ahead is highly uncertain and will only be revealed by careful study of the incoming data — not dogma. And by picking Warsh for the job, Trump seems to have put himself and the American people in a hard-to-win situation.

Jonathan Levin is a columnist focused on US markets and economics. Previously, he worked as a Bloomberg journalist in the US, Brazil and Mexico. He is a CFA charterholder.

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Source (above story): https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/trump-demanded-a-fed-dove-he-picked-a-hawk-20260131-p5nygc

And from Reuters today:

https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW147330012026RP1/

World News

UN at risk of 'imminent financial collapse'

January 31, 2026

The U.N. chief has told member states that the organization is at risk of "imminent financial collapse," citing unpaid fees and a budget rule that forces the global body to return unspent money, a letter seen by Reuters on Friday showed. "We face a real danger of running out of money," echoed the U.N. deputy spokesperson.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW147330012026RP1/

And from Raw Story:

https://www.rawstory.com/un/

UN warns of imminent financial collapse after Trump yanks US funding from global bodies

Sandra Miller

January 30, 2026 8:11PM ET

The United Nations is warning it is on the brink of an “imminent financial collapse” just weeks after President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of dozens of UN organizations and treaties, slashing a major source of global funding. In a letter to ambassadors cited by Reuters, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the crisis is already disrupting programs and will worsen rapidly as key member states refuse to honor their financial commitments. While Guterres did not name the US directly, the warning comes after Trump withdrew from more than 60 international agreements, including major UN bodies, cutting off roughly $820 million a year from the world’s largest economy. The funding loss has already forced the cancellation of hundreds of millions of dollars in grants, including lifesaving programs targeting maternal mortality and sexual violence, prompting Guterres to warn that without swift action the UN could run out of cash by July.

Source: https://www.rawstory.com/un/

My view: Gold is going higher, and so are most decent gold company share prices, but it won't be in a straight line and we won't see rises every day. The A$ gold price dropped -7.33% yesterday (or by -A$556.21/ounce) and the US$ gold price dropped -8.15% (or -US$434.45/ounce). To put that "massive" gold price fall into perspective, the gold price has dropped back to the same level it was at on January 19th in Australia and on January 22nd in the US.

Source: https://goldprice.org/

So yesterdays gold price fall "wiped out" just 10 days of gains in A$ and 7 days (just one week) of gains in US$ (achieved through to Thursday 29th Jan).

Keep that in mind when you see or hear stories like the following:

Gold, silver crash in $US15 trillion wipe-out after Trump appoints new head of the Fed

Precious metals are in free-fall with markets selling down following the latest move from US President Donald Trump.

Cameron Micallef

January 31, 2026 - 12:52PM

Link: https://www.news.com.au/finance/gold-silver-crash-in-us15-trillion-wipeout-after-trump-appoints-new-head-of-the-fed/news-story/9ef28396b148863672f92c0edbb82187

Gold and silver prices plunged overnight after US President Donald Trump announced his nomination for the US Federal Reserve.

In the latest market rout, more than $US15 trillion ($AU21 trillion) was wiped from the gold and silver price over 24 hours.

This is half the size of the entire US economy.

Spot silver prices fell by as much as 30 per cent to $US80.55 (AU$115.62) before recovering briefly throughout the US trading day.

The plunge in silver prices was the biggest fall one day fall since March 20, 1980.

“This is getting crazy,” Miller Tabak equity strategist Matt Maley told CNBC.

“Most of this is probably ‘forced selling.’

“This has been the hottest asset for day traders and other short-term traders recently, so there has been some leverage built up in silver.

“With the huge decline today, the margin calls went out.”

A margin call happens when an investor borrows money to buy an asset – in this case silver – and the price falls so much that the broker demands an immediate deposit of more cash or sell assets to cover the loan.

Spot gold prices plunged around 11 per cent to $US4812 (AU$6906) an ounce.

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn labelled Saturday morning’s price drop as “overdue” following a strong run up.

“Gold and silver had been trading in an increasingly speculative environment, with gold up nearly 20 per cent and silver more than 30 per cent over the past 10 days,” she said.

“Against that backdrop, the near-10 per cent pullback in gold overnight, while sharp, looks consistent with a long-overdue correction after a period of uninterrupted upside.”

The price of gold is falling following a strong run for the commodity when it set two historic records throughout the week.

The price of the precious metal rallied to a new record high briefly touching $US5602 (AU$7901), before sliding back to $US5,542 an ounce.

Gold’s rally continues to defy market expectations, having recently only passed the $US5000 ($AU7219) an ounce mark on Tuesday.

Gold started 2025 worth $US2600 an ounce, but investors have piled into the safe haven asset over the past 13 months sending the price more than 90 per cent higher prior to Saturday’s falls.

US President Donald Trump announced the new Federal Reserve chair which started the precious metal sell-off. Picture: NewsWire/ Joseph Olbrycht Palmer

Why did the price of gold fall?

The plunge was initially triggered after Mr Trump announced his nomination for the Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell.

Markets continued to sell-off following the nomination, which experts called profit taking after the previous run higher.

Ms Hathorn said the longer term fundamentals of the safe haven assets had not changed.

“(The precious metals) continue to benefit from central bank buying and their role as hedges against political and fiscal uncertainty,” she said.

“Rather, it reflects some concern that prices had moved too far, too fast, without a meaningful test of momentum.”

Also weighing on the commodities market was a strengthening US dollar which makes it more expensive for overseas buyers, including from Australia, to purchase the asset.

Australia’s dollar fell back below 70 US cents overnight.

Investors had been snapping up the ‘safe-haven’ asset with experts saying the fall in gold is largely a correction to the price.

Saturday’s falls follow a near $6 trillion plunge on Friday on speculation Mr Trump was happy to see the world’s reserve currency weaken, despite the potential risk it could lead to higher inflation.

Gold declined more than five per cent and silver plunged more than eight per cent, while copper and nickel prices also fell, as traders reassessed the market.

“The parabolic rally had to come to an end” as commodity prices had “gone up too far, too quickly”, Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB trading group, told AFP.

Bitcoin prices have also been under pressure, falling below $US88,000 ($AU126,390).

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Source: https://www.news.com.au/finance/gold-silver-crash-in-us15-trillion-wipeout-after-trump-appoints-new-head-of-the-fed/news-story/9ef28396b148863672f92c0edbb82187

The rally has come to an end? Certainly last week's rally came to an end, but with the gold price only losing one week to 10 days worth of gains, which aligns with my SMSF balance being back to just above what it was on Thursday, January 22nd, 9 days ago (and 8 days before yesterday's "crash"), it's a little early to be declaring the gold bull run over. Even if the gold price continues to decline over the next few days (and my bet is that it recovers some of Friday's losses this coming week rather than drop further), this is almost certainly another drop within a larger gold price uptrend that has a long way to go yet.

The decline in the attractiveness of the US$ in terms of central bank reserves around the world, especially in China, will continue, and gold remains the obvious replacement. It has been and it will continue to be. The damage Trump has done and is continuing to do to world trade and the way financial systems operate globally will either never be able to be repaired, or else will take decades. Some will call it necessary change rather than damage, but regardless, these changes to the world order will continue to be good for gold.

Any alternative views are welcome. Chime in!