This is from an interview by Ian Cassel with Anthony Deden on why they (AD funds) hold gold and should cheer the hearts of all gold holders.

"The reason we own gold as a reserve asset is rooted in something fundamental. What makes gold compelling are the risks we do not take by owning it. No forecasting or guesswork is required. The risks we do not take owning gold could fill volumes. There's no duration risk, credit risk, liquidity risk. The metal is not moved by financial instability nor threatened by national insolvency or chaos in the foreign exchange markets. There are no margin calls and no refinancing risks. There's no risk of technological obsolescence, depletion, depreciation, or decay, nor does it require cheap energy, cheap credit, or cheap trade to remain viable. It does not care about your national energy policy or who you buy your gas from or how many pipelines are running. You don't have to keep the lights on or even keep it warm. There are no financial accounts to pour over, no balance sheet to blow up, no cash flow to dwindle, no stale inventory and no margin pressures at difficult times. There are no key manpower or supply risks, no competitive risks, no management or to squander his future. It does not depend on the character, skill or enthusiasm of anyone. It does not require the faith or goodwill of anyone. It does not require you to trust anyone except that you must store it and hold it in a safe place. So the absence of unwanted risk is the center of our investment approach. The principle applies to our choice of gold reserves as well as the business participation that we hold. Both parts brought together, seeking to avoid risks that are not worth taking, and by extension, have the freedom to choose risks worth embracing." 

Friday 13th September 2024: Friday 13th, unlucky for some, not for the Aussie Gold Sector today:

Not bad when a sector is up over +5% half way through the day. I'm not saying that we are seeing a major rotation out of Australia's largest sector, Financials, into Australia's second largest sector, Materials, including mining, however we could be seeing the START of that rotation. The one I was referring to here - i.e. the WLE boys (Matt Haupt and John Ayoub) talking about Australian banks, particularly CBA being around 3.5 times book value and extremely overbought, even on a yield basis now, i.e. a dividend yield of close to 3% because of the much higher share price now - based on CBA's close yesterday ($142.96) and the $4.65 in dividends they declared in the past year, their historical or trailing dividend yield was only 3.25% last night, lower than term deposits, so they are no longer an income play except for people who bought them at signifcantly lower prices, and there are HEAPS of those people, who may well never sell. It's the overseas money flows that are going to make the biggest moves.

While Resources, and Gold in particular are having a really good day, to be fair, financials are down but not by much, so I reckon it's way too early to call that rotation yet, but it will come.

Today is a nice start anyway. The US$ gold price hit a new all time high again overnight:

That's the 10 year chart first, followed by the 12 month chart of the gold bullion price in US dollars.

See here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-hits-all-time-high-fed-rate-cut-hopes-bolster-appeal-2024-09-12/ [September 13, 2024 @ 3:53 AM GMT+9:30, Updated 9 hours ago]

Excerpt: Spot gold was up 1.7% at $2,554.05 per ounce, as of 02:10 p.m. ET (1810 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 1.5% higher at $2,580.60. (this was on their Thursday, i.e. yesterday, or overnight our time).

US$ above - Australian dollars below:

Here is a snapshot of our gold sector in the past half hour, from best performers down to worst:

I've highlighted the gold bullion ETFs / ETPs (Exchange Traded Funds / Products) there - which tend to track the physical gold price fairly closely. Note that QAU is the only one of those four that is currency hedged, and it rose the most, although the difference is minor.

When the vast majority of the sector is rising by more than the gold price is, that's a bullish sign. It means the sentiment across the sector is positive.

Here's the bottom part of that list that wouldn't fit on that screen shot:

While SXG are underperforming today, in the past year Southern Cross Gold has risen from below $1 to above $3/share, and they're still up at $2.79, so anyone who has been in SXG since this time last year would NOT be complaining. Likewise, SMI, Santana Minerals, has risen from 50 cps to $2.10 (so over 4x) and they're still at $2.04, so again, they've outperformed over the year and are just taking a breather now as perhaps some people take profits and rotate that money into stocks they think could do similar things in the next 12 months.

Magnetic Resources (MAU) however is now in a downtrend after doubling from below 80 cps to $1.60. MAU is now down to $1.31 and all their momentum is currently heading south. We have talked about them here - main problem appears to be their MD, George Sakalidis, who talks himself and his company up, but has shown his lack of professionalism by mumbling the names of two larger gold companies who had been "in our dataroom" and are "showing interest" at the recent Diggers & Dealers (D&D) conference in Kalgoorlie (in August).

In one fell swoop, George announced the company was definitely up for sale, and pissed off the two parties that had previously been interested in buying the company, so now those buyers have backed right off and we have a company where the management have clearly stated that their aim is not to develop their assets through to gold production but instead to cash out by selling to a larger producer who already owns a gold mill that can process their ore.

They could well still get taken out by one of those companies with mills in the area, probably Genesis Minerals (GMD), however my guess would be not any time soon, unless they change MDs. And perhaps not at the prices they were at prior to D&D either - unless they find a lot more gold. So drill George, drill!

Not holding MAU - I made some money on them as a trade in July. Not holding SMI either - coz their project is in New Zealand - and in productive farmland - remember McPhillamys? Bowdens Silver Mine?

Southern Cross Gold (SXG) did interest me earlier this year, but I didn't pull the trigger because I thought they looked expensive for a project developer, as good as their Sunday Creek project in the Victorian Goldfields is, and now they're jumping on the antimony train - see their September 5th announcement: SXG Discovers 135m wide Gold-Antimony Zone below Golden Dyke.

They released this presso on the same day: Sunday Creek – Victorian Goldfields: An Expanding and Significant Global Gold Discovery.

Their SP rose +5% on the day and almost +6% the following day. They went from a $2.61 close on Sep 4th to $3/share on the 9th (the Monday just gone). Plenty of hype there I reckon.

Dual Listed (ASX and TSXV). And they are pumping the Antimony they've found as well as the gold-friendly district their ground is in. And they're also well aware of the Lassonde Curve and are highlighting that as well:

As an aside, the Money of Mine (MoM) podcast crew use the Lassonde Curve as their logo:

For reference, the Lassonde Curve is explained well here: https://www.smallcapinvestor.ca/post/the-lassonde-curve-understanding-the-mining-life-cycle

Source: Visual Capitalist

Excerpt:

The Lassonde Curve - Understanding the Mining Life Cycle

In the world of mining and exploration, understanding the dynamics of the industry is crucial for investors and industry professionals alike. One concept that has gained prominence is the Lassonde Curve, named after Pierre Lassonde, a renowned figure in the mining industry. The Lassonde Curve provides valuable insights into the stages of the mining life cycle and the potential value creation at each phase. In this article, we will delve into the details of the Lassonde Curve, exploring its significance and how it can guide investors in navigating the early-stage opportunities offered by junior mining companies.

Understanding the Lassonde Curve

The Lassonde Curve is a graphical representation that illustrates the value creation process in the mining industry. It showcases the various stages of a mineral property's life cycle, from concept and discovery to feasibility, development, and ultimately, production. The curve helps investors and industry professionals visualize the value trajectory of a mining project as it progresses through these stages.

1. Concept Phase: The journey begins with the acquisition of a prospective mineral property. This phase involves conducting initial exploration work, including surface mapping and sampling, to determine the property's mineral potential. By communicating the property's value proposition to the capital markets, companies aim to attract investors willing to fund further exploration activities.
2. Discovery Phase: If the concept phase yields promising results, companies proceed to the discovery phase. Here, diamond drilling is employed to assess the presence and extent of valuable minerals beneath the surface. A significant discovery can spark investor interest and contribute to a surge in the company's valuation.
3. Feasibility Phase: After confirming the existence of mineral resources, the project enters the feasibility phase. This stage involves comprehensive engineering and financial studies to evaluate the project's viability and assess its potential profitability. Different types of studies, such as Preliminary Economic Assessments (PEAs) and Pre-Feasibility Studies (PFS), provide detailed insights into the project's technical and economic aspects.
4. Development Phase: Once a mining project has undergone rigorous engineering and financial evaluations, it may progress to the development phase. Here, companies work towards transforming the mineral deposit into a fully operational mining operation. Securing funding and obtaining necessary permits are crucial steps in this phase. Development requires substantial capital investment and expertise, as the project moves closer to actual production.
5. Startup Phase: The startup phase represents a significant milestone in a mineral company's journey. It marks the transition from development to production, where the mine becomes operational and generates revenues. At this stage, investors can assess the company's operational, environmental, social, and financial performance to make informed investment decisions.

Applying the Lassonde Curve

The Lassonde Curve serves as a guide for investors interested in early-stage opportunities in the mining sector, particularly with junior mining companies focused on exploration and development. By understanding the stages of the curve, investors can assess the progress and potential value creation of a mining project.

Investors can analyze a company's milestones and compare them to the expected progression on the Lassonde Curve. This assessment helps them gauge the project's stage and the potential impact on its intrinsic value. For example, a positive feasibility study announcement can act as a catalyst for share price movement, indicating a significant step towards development.

It's important to note that the Lassonde Curve is not the sole determinant of a project's success or an investor's decision-making process. External factors, such as market conditions, commodity prices, regulatory hurdles, and operational challenges, can influence a project's outcomes.

Case Study: The Oyu Tolgoi Deposit

The Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold discovery in Mongolia provides a real-life illustration of the value cycle in action. From the initial concept and exploration stages to feasibility, development, and production, this case study exemplifies the complex journey of a mining project.

By studying the Oyu Tolgoi example, investors and industry professionals can gain valuable insights into the dynamics of mineral discoveries, assess their investment potential, and navigate the inherent risks.

Source: Visual Capitalist

Concept: 15+ Years

Initial exploration work near the Oyu Tolgoi site took place in the 1980s. However, it wasn't until 1996 that Australian miner BHP conducted further exploration activities. After conducting 21 drill holes, BHP lost interest in the project and opted to option the property to mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland and his company Ivanhoe Mines. At this stage in 1999, investing in Ivanhoe shares was considered speculative.

Pre-Discovery/Discovery: ~3 years

Ivanhoe Mines and BHP entered into an earn-in agreement, whereby Ivanhoe gained ownership rights by conducting exploration work on the Oyu Tolgoi site. Approximately a year later, the first drill results were released from drill hole 150, revealing an impressive intersection of 508 meters with 1.1 g/t Au and 0.8% copper. To put this into perspective, imagine a 45-story building, with one-third of each story consisting of copper. This discovery represented only a fraction of the potential deposit, which could extend for miles. The release of these promising drill results sparked wild speculation, as the growing evidence of a massive copper-gold deposit in Mongolia drove up Ivanhoe's share price.

Feasibility/Orphan Period: ~2 years

In 2004, the drilling results contributed to the development of the first scoping study, providing a preliminary understanding of the project's economic viability.

With this study in hand, the company needed to secure sufficient funding to construct a mine and extract the valuable ore. It wasn't until two years later, when Ivanhoe Mines entered into an agreement with major mining company Rio Tinto, that a production decision was ultimately solidified.

Development: 7 years

By 2006, the Oyu Tolgoi mineral deposit had entered the development phase, with the completion of the first shaft headframe, hoisting frame, and associated infrastructure. Over the next two years, the shaft reached a depth of 1,385 feet. Further development work resulted in the delineation of a resource estimate of 1.2 billion pounds of copper, 650,000 ounces of gold, and 3 million ounces of silver. The initial stage of Oyu Tolgoi's development propelled Mongolia to become the world's fastest-growing economy between 2009 and 2011.

Startup/Production: Ongoing

On January 31, 2013, Ivanhoe Mines announced the production of the first copper-gold concentrate from the Oyu Tolgoi mine. Six months later, the company reported processing up to 70,000 tonnes of ore daily.

Depletion: Into the Future

Given the immense scale of the Oyu Tolgoi deposit, it is expected to last for generations, making it challenging to determine its long-term investment value. However, it is essential to acknowledge that risks still lie ahead. Potential challenges include labor disruptions, mining method issues, or fluctuations in commodity prices. Investors must carefully consider these factors as they unfold.

Conclusion

The Lassonde Curve offers valuable insights into the mining life cycle and the potential value creation at each stage. By understanding this concept, investors can navigate the complex mining industry more effectively. The curve provides a framework for assessing the progress of mining projects, from early exploration to production, and helps investors make informed decisions.

While the Lassonde Curve serves as a useful guideline, it's essential to consider other factors that can impact a project's success. Investors should conduct thorough due diligence, analyze market conditions, evaluate the management team's expertise, and consider the project's unique characteristics.

In summary, the Lassonde Curve acts as a roadmap, enabling investors to track a mining project's progress and evaluate its value potential. With a comprehensive understanding of the mining life cycle and the insights provided by the curve, investors can make more informed investment decisions in the dynamic and rewarding world of mining.

--- ends ---

Article Sourced from: https://www.smallcapinvestor.ca/post/the-lassonde-curve-understanding-the-mining-life-cycle

So SXG are highlighting where they are on the Lassonde Curve and that their plan is to "Drill Baby, Drill!" with their drill rig count increasing to 6 - and they'll still be drilling in June next year while progressing "Baseline Environmental Studies/Permitting" - see slide 38 from their recent Presso reproduced above (above the Lassonde curve article and the MoM logo screenshot), so they are highlighting the potential for a share price run-up during this period, while simultaneously highlighting that they are one of the few projects in Australia with Antimony alongside the gold, which is regarded as a critical mineral and the price went vertical recently because of this:

On August 14, China announced export restrictions on antimony in the country’s latest move to restrict critical mineral shipments globally in the name of national security. Antimony is a critical input for the defense industry, particularly for armor-piercing ammunition, night vision goggles, infrared sensors, bullets, and precision optics, and the electronics industry, including semiconductors, cables, and batteries. This is the latest restriction after a series of export controls in 2023 on graphite, germanium, gallium, and rare earth processing technologies, raising alarms in the semiconductor, electric vehicle, and defense industries that rely on these materials.

China is the world’s leading producer of antimony, accounting for 48 percent of global production and 63 percent of U.S. antimony imports. The likelihood of antimony supply disruptions has now increased significantly, necessitating the United States to quickly secure antimony supply chains from non-Chinese sources.

Info source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-antimony-export-restrictions-impact-us-national-security

There's always something, eh!?!

So, yeah, SXG (Southern Cross Gold) certainly has plenty of upside potential from here, but they are too speculative for me at this point - I probably would have been in like Flynn a few years ago however...

I'll stick to my profitable multi-mine producers at this stage rather than any project developers. But as project developers go, if you're into that sort of thing, might be worth a closer look.

30-Aug-2024: The last trading day of August and the last day for companies to lodge reports for the 6 and/or 12 month periods that ended June 30th 2024.

And Newmont Mining (NEM), the world's largest gold miner, HQ'd in the USA, with their primary listing on the New York Stock Exchange, but who also trade here on our ASX via a CDI and are the largest participant in the Aussie Gold Index for some strange reason that is as a result of them acquiring Newcrest Mining (which was Australia's largest gold mining company) last year, hit a 12-month high today, of $78.83, before closing a little lower at $78.27. No wonder the Aussie Gold sector outperformed today:

As well as NEM, we also had SPR and RMS (I hold RMS) making 12-month highs today. Ramelius (RMS) happen to own 17.94% of Spartan (SPR), and have a look at Spartan's chart. Couldn't be much better over 1 year. Three years looks OK. 5 Years looks reasonable. 10 years, not so much - as they used to trade between $6 and $8/share from early 2016 through to mid-2018 (when they were known as Gascoyne Resources and their many issues at their Dalgaranga Gold Mill in WA hadn't fully come to the market's attention yet - and they're now making 12-month highs at $1.46 ($1.455), having been as low as 28.5 cps this year and even down to 10 cps in March of last year. Different company now, and mining different lodes too, and RMS are along for the ride, since they have no debt and a pile of cash (over $400 million of net cash and bullion and liquid shares at June 30). SPR +12.36% today, RMS only up +0.91% (up +2c to $2.22).

Genesis Minerals (GMD), which I also hold, was also up +6% today to $2.27, which was a new 12-month high for them also, but they somehow didn't make it onto MP's table of 12-month highs and lows (above).

Other than those four goldies, we had 3 of our big 5 banks making new 12-month highs today (WBC, ANZ & MQG), as well as Resmed (RMD) and Codan (CDA). New IPO, Guzman Y Gomez made another new high again today also. So did Downer EDI (DOW) which is a company that the market clearly had low expectations for, as their report didn't shoot the lights out, considering they have come off a fairly low base, and they rose +16.95% (call it +17%). I held them briefly a few years ago, but their disclosures were fairly ordinary and I was invited to be part of two different class actions against their management - I didn't bother because I made money on one trade and lost money on another and pretty much broke even so it wasn't worth the effort. But I stopped following them and was surprised when I saw that market reaction to their report today.

Back to gold, the other three gold producers that I hold in real-money portfolios (all in my SMSF actually), PRU, EMR and NST, are all within spitting distance of making new 12-month highs themselves, and for NST a new 12-month high would also be a new all-time high, and for PRU and EMR new 12-month highs would also be new 10-year highs.

The Aussie Gold Sector companies that moved up the most today (SPR, GSM, PNR, AAR, RED, GMD, WGX & BTR - all up by over +5%) suggest to me that:

1. People are looking to get some positions in potential M&A targets; and
2. In the case of GMD & WGX people are looking for the next mid-sized producer that is most likely to be one of the larger Aussie gold producers in 3 to 5 years from now which will likely be through a combination of organic growth (own project development and further exploration success) and M&A (more acquisitions).

Disc: Of those discussed above, I hold NST, RMS, GMD, PRU and EMR in real-money portfolios and a very small trading position here only in PNR, and I have indirect exposure to SPR through RMS (who own almost 18% of SPR).

https://www.kalminer.com.au/news/regional/spartan-resources-2024-focus-of-drilling-and-de-risking-yields-strong-results-at-dalgaranga-gold-project-c-13584763

29-August-2024: Another day, another Aussie Gold Producer Report - Red 5 (RED) FY24 Financial Results and FY25 Outlook (.PDF)

Plus: Red 5 Appendix 4E and FY24 Annual Financial Report (.PDF)

Red 5 Limited (ASX: RED) announced their financial results for the year ended 30 June 2024 which incorporate Silver Lake Resources (“Silver Lake”) for the 12 days from the implementation date of 19 June 2024. Market wasn't overly impressed. RED down -12.33% today on these results and outlook, and that was a fair bit more than the sector and the market.

Once again Luke Tonkin has bought at the top (with the SLR-RED merger) and down we go.

If management is important to the success of gold miners and for providing decent TSRs (and management certainly is important), then SLR (now RED) is a hard pass for mine.

Revenue was up +47% from $422.7m to $620m yet they still posted a statutory loss.

Guidance for FY25 for the combined group (SLR + RED assets) is 390,000 to 430,000 ounces of gold at an AISC of A$2,250 to A$2,450 per ounce.   Better, but not a low cost producer. They also have some low priced hedges. See below:

Those 82,000 ounces due to be delivered this half are priced at A$2,586/ounce, around $1,000/ounce below the spot price. Not good Luke!

But wait, Luke has a plan!! He's going to change the company's name:

That'll fix everything! For sure!

[Not held]