A few things to note here Chagsy. The first is that the vast bulk of the iron ore demand is still coming out of China, who have experienced a "V"-shaped recovery. This is also fuelled by supply constraints in various countries, most notably Brazil where Vale operates. Australia's iron ore miners have almost been unaffected by COVID-19. It certainly hasn't significantly constrained their ability to supply China with all the iron ore they want to buy. I see this is a temporary phenomenon which is why I prefer to gain exposure to mining services companies who have diversified revenue streams, rather than by owning shares in pure-play iron-ore miners. I'd love to have held FMG over the past year, but I haven't held FMG, RIO or BHP. I don't like their reliance on iron ore. I've been wrong on that so far, but I'll probably be right eventually. Next, copper is a leading indicator of global growth sentiment, and copper is rising, indicating that people are thinking a vaccine that works is a likely scenario. If we get a widely accepted vaccine that works, I think you'll see a real positive change in global sentiment. Other metals are also rising, but you have to remember that prices were beaten down in many cases to below the cost of production for many small-to-mid-sized miners, so there was plenty of room for recovery. Added to that, we have global stockpiles of some metals getting very low. When prices fall below the cost of production, many companies will stop producing. Some mines go onto C&M (care and maintenance). Other companies go to the wall. What is common across those scenarios however is that those mines are no longer producing. That obviously reduces supply. The mines with the lowest costs can often last the longest, so too the big miners with the deepest pockets that can afford to run at a loss for a period without upsetting their bankers. The overarching theme there however is that both demand and supply diminish at the same time (as logic suggests should happen), however often when demand picks up again, as it has done with recent Chinese economic stimulus, there isn't a rapid supply response, because re-starting closed mines takes time, and because some of those companies have gone broke, or are having issues with their bankers/funders, and because other companies want to see a higher price for 3 to 6 months to justify the start-up of their own mines. So stockpiles are used up and the commodity price rises for the remaining supply. And companies like S32 (which I own shares in) reap the benefits of that. My aim is to hold good producers who have net cash on the balance sheet preferably (particularly if they are small or mid-cap miners) who have costs in the lowest quartile of the global cost curve for the commodities that they produce, and have management who have demonstrated excellent track records of good capital allocation. They are the ones who will be left standing, and who will benefit at times like these. BHP is a company that is well run NOW, but prior management have made TERRIBLE capital allocation decisions and burned through BILLIONS of dollars that could have been returned to their shareholders instead - on very poor acquisitions for which they overpaid at the top of the market, or that were terrible fits for their business and were later offloaded for a fraction of what they paid - or written off. BHP even wasted millions trying to take over RIO at the height of the second last mining boom. RIO was almost as bad themselves - have a look at this: https://www.smh.com.au/business/rio-tinto-makes-44b-bid-for-alcan-20070712-gdqllr.html RIO paid A$44 billion for Alcan (a huge Canadian-based company) in 2007, then 2 years later found themselves in so much debt they were forced to sell off all of those Alcan assets for a total of around one tenth of that purchase price. https://www.ft.com/content/6c3ae54e-a73e-11de-9467-00144feabdc0 Anyway, enough about those guys, except to say that they appear to be run by their CFOs these days rather than their CEOs, and their capital allocation decisions over the past 18 or so months have been really good. However, I still don't like their reliance on iron ore. In summary, I think there are two things happening now. The rising metal prices (not including iron ore, which has its own drivers) are partly caused by the prices getting too low and supply being removed, then demand recovering sooner than had been expected. Secondly, I think the rising metal prices, particularly the rising copper price is telling us that the global recession is unlikely to be as deep or as long as our worst fears are suggesting it might be. Of course, positive sentiment can be wrong, particularly if it is based on a false premise. So if we do NOT get a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the 2021 calendar year (or effective treatments that work to reduce the death toll significantly), I think you'll see metal prices lower than where they are today, not higher.

I went against my better judgement and bought Fortescue after going ex-dividend. While I'm in the same boat as Bear77, I noticed Fortescue is diversifying out of Iron ore into other areas including Gold. Apparently they have pegged some ground in the Lachlan Fold area and other places in WA. Plus I don't see Brazil opening up the economy any time soon while they struggle to contain the pandemic. And the Simandou Iron Ore project in Guinea (being partly developed by Chinese companies) I heard might take a few years to come online. Until then, I think the big 3 miners have the Iron Ore market to themselves but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.