Forum Topics Tax loss selling
Bear77
4 years ago

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/ten-reasons-to-sell-your-duds-eofy

18-June-2020:  That link will take you to a Marcus Padley piece (which he penned yesterday) which was published in the free FirstLinks e-newsletter today - which discusses the opportunity to offset capital gains you may be sitting on by selling any dud stocks you may have in your portfolio that you might be better off cutting loose (and realising a capital loss to offset those other gains).  Obviously you would need to sell before June 30th to be able to use those capital losses this financial year.  

And most people know all about that - and will be doing it.  Which presents opportunities, particuarly in less liquid (i.e. illiquid) stocks - where the price moves can be large - on small volume.  You might find that companies that have been particularly hammered over the past year - and have not recovered much, may get sold off between now and the end of the month.  If you already hold the company and are happy to top up, or you like the company and its prospects and are looking for a good entry point, you may get a great opportunity.  As always, don't buy companies just because they look cheap or because their SP falls a lot.  It pays to be confident that the falls are irrational or else that you have good reason to believe that the company is trading below its intrinsic value (IV) and will/should rise over time to better reflect its IV.  Know what the company does, why you want to own it, and have a clear picture of the main risks that the business faces - the headwinds, as well as the tailwinds.  I like to try to list all of the risks that I can identify and how I believe the company will navigate through them.  We don't have a crystal ball and we can't consistently and correctly predict the future with any degree of certainty, but we can form sensible opinions based on verifiable facts and any other information we can obtain from different sources.  So, basically, don't buy blind.  Know what you're buying, what you own, what they do, and why you're holding those companies. 

It also pays to have an investment horizon for each and all of your holdings.  My favourite time horizon is "forever", but realistically there are not too many set-and-forget companies that you can invest in these days.  I have plenty of "sell triggers" for various holdings.  I might have a price target for some companies, or a situation where I'm holding as long as management keep executing to their communicated plan, but only as long as they do.  Mostly, it's just based on the overall written investment thesis that I have for each company I hold.  Those theses can be modified, they have to be flexible, but I have to accept that when the thesis is broken (/busted/shot full of holes), it's almost always time to cut that company loose and redirect that capital into something with better future prospects that will allow me to continue to sleep well at night.  Not everything goes to plan, particularly in this game, but there is always a plan B (, C, D, E, F, etc.).  "Hope" is never a good investment case.  

But if you've done the work, and know what you're comfortable to buy, there could be some great opportunities over the next 8 trading days.

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