Forum Topics Irrelevant news
Strawman
4 years ago

What's something that a lot of investors look at that you find overrated?

For me, it's what happened on US  markets overnight.

Sure, kind of interesting to get a sense of what the days trade might be like, but it's never affected an investment decision. I certainly can't see what it means for a business's long term earnings capacity. Waste of time!

(And Happy father's Day to all the Strawman dad's!)

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Bear77
4 years ago

I agree with you 90% (not quite 100%) Strawman. The exception is when you know that certain pockets of the US market are trading at very high multiples and when you see those pockets correcting. In the past two trading sessions we have seen the IT sector in the US leading the selling. The commentary around that has been that a lot of fund managers have been "forced into" buying tech stocks that they know were/are overpriced simply because those companies' share prices would likely keep going up and if they're not onboard they will underperform their benchmark (their benchmarks usually include those IT companies, being as they're some of the largest companies in the world), and that now that there is a correction beginning - possibly - in the IT sector, that they (those same fund managers) are all trying to get out. It has implications for our market in three ways. Firstly because we have a much smaller number of much smaller tech companies here that are also trading on rediculous multiples, and they may also correct. This is likely going to be exacerbated by the BNPL sector here being sold down on competition concerns - with Paypal entering that sector, and they've got VERY deep pockets. Secondly, because the IT sector is so dominant in the US, it will likely lead to a broader correction if this selling continues, and it is very unlikely that the US could fall 15 to 20% and we don't fall significantly as well. In other words, our market will generally follow them down. That argument is that all stocks may fall, particularly the "growth" stocks that are priced on high multiples - in all major markets. Thirdly, there are a small group of globally-focussed LICs/LITs that own significant shareholdings in those US IT companies. Magellan Financial Group (MFG) is the most obvious example and their MGG and MHH LITs are going to see their NAVs falling in this environment, which means their value will fall - if you value a LIC/LIT by their NTA/NAV, which most people do. However, if you are a value investor, and you own value plays, this is probably a net positive, because it will likely see some money rotate from "growth" to "value" over time, if growth loses some of its lustre. It's been a rough trot over the past decade for value investors, and the cycle is due for a change. On an individual stock basis, unless you are invested in a Listed Investment Company or Trust (LIC/LIT) that owns shares in US companies, then there are not usually direct implications for you from US market movements over one or two nights (their days). However, if it's the start of a major shift, such as large fund managers moving out of highly priced tech stocks, then it could have implications for our market and for particular companies here.

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