Forum Topics LICs trading below NTA (watchlist)
verybigwhale
Added 5 years ago

I'll start with: CDM. 

Please add any that are on your watchlist.

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Bear77
Added 5 years ago

Apart from WAM & WAX - which are trading at big premiums to NTA - most LICs are trading at discounts to their NTA. The interesting ones are trading at double digit discounts. I agree with CDM (which I recently bought a position in) as well as EAI. Any LIC that buys offshore shares (globally focussed rather than domestic focussed) is going to be trading at a discount of somewhere between 10% and 30% these days it seems. Plenty of opportunities if you think the discounts can narrow significantly, and/or the NTAs can rise. CDM in particular have been performing very well for the past year, in direct contrast to their prior years where Karl Seigling's rules (around scaling in and out of positions - and only buying when share prices were rising and selling when share prices were falling) saw him shaken out of many positions at significant losses simply due to increased market volatility. Karl also stubbornly stuck by Melbourne IT (which became ARQ Group and is now called Webcentral Group - ASX:WCG) and it was one of his larger positions (along with MQG) - and he lost quite a bit on WCG over the years. His top positions look a lot different now however. Last time I checked, MQG was still there, but WCG was gone, and he had a good mix of overseas and Australian companies, including some fast growing companies. I think Karl has now successfully turned Cadence Capital (CDM) around, and I'm back on board.

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stevegreenycom
Added 5 years ago

I usually watch the LIC space quite closely. As Bear77 noted there are a heap trading at discounts. However the point I would add right now is I am personally finding that the ones trading near their wides of the discount range are drying up. It feels like some of the good opportunities have passed by over the last quarter. Some of the low hanging fruit have been picked off with a bit of activism in some cases and discounts have contracted. Think BAF, CLF, ALF, CIE, EGI, MA1 in recent times. Some LICs like APL, AEG have perhaps on their own accord to some degree put in measures to close the discount. Not sure my comments are helping as I am writing this as I suppose we are after new opportunities! I did write a bull case straw on CVF at under 80 cents the other day though, but at the minute I can't think of many others I am close to accumulating. I suppose my point is maybe on a short term view we might need a bit of patience to see if better opportunities emerge later.

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Bear77
Added 5 years ago

RF1, Regal Funds Management's LIC (Regal Investment Fund) is one I came across today while listening to Friday's (yesterday's) "The Call" on Ausbiz - see here: https://www.ausbiz.com.au/media/the-call-friday-2-october-?videoId=4580 I also noted earlier today that they were one of 5 fundies that were listed as substantial shareholders of Enero Group (EGG). While Rudi and Claude were both negative on RF1 on "The Call" yesterday, much of that has to do with the fact that neither of them are interested in holding LICs themselves, so I would suggest they are not the best two people to ask for an opinion on any individual LIC - including RF1. RF1 have had a brilliant year - you can view their chart here: https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/RF1 They've recovered all of their March/April losses and then powered beyond their previous highs. Their performance numbers are VERY impressive: 1 month: +10.49%, 3 months: +42.49%, YTD: +31.29%, 12 months: +34.08%, since inception: +35.51% p.a. And they are still trading at a decent discount to their NTA. At August 31st, their NAV/NTA was $3.37, and their SP was $2.98, so they were trading at a 11.6% discount to their NTA. They call it their NAV (net asset value) but for a LIC the NAV is the NTA (net tangible assets). They are interchangeable terms. That discount has probably narrowed, as RF1 is now trading at $3.13 and the market was down in September. However, RF1 has been outperforming the market in both up and down months, so I'm confident there is still a discount in their share price. We'll get a better idea of the extent of that discount when they release their September report, which is due around the 11th to 14th October based on previous months. Another interesting thing about RF1 is that while they do use a number of different investment strategies, including shorting some companies, they have long positions in some Strawman.com favourites like ZIP, TNT and PBH, and they also hold some companies that are regularly discussed here - like 4DX, DEG and BTH - see here: https://www.regalfm.com/site/PDF/2a29162f-f113-46ab-9359-7dc71ebf96b2/RegalInvestmentFundNewsletterAugust2020 And: https://www.regalfm.com/site/content/ I'm not yet an RF1 shareholder, but they're now on my watchlist.

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