I ran this poll on twitter. It's an interesting experiment and the results highlight a few things.
Not many people could beat the returns being offered. Far less than 1% IMO. Given my twitter feed includes some smart investors / traders and Fund managers I might guess 5% of the people that took this speciffic poll could beat it.
Its the old adage.. ask a room full of random people if they are an above average driver and theoretically you should get about half the hands raised.. But typically 90% of people will say yes.
Over confidence leads far too many people to believe they can beat it.
The third option (No - I love it too much) They are saying I probably can't beat the returns offered but I don't want to give it up. That would be one expensive hobby! Depending on your capital that would cost you an enormous ammount over the course of a decade along with many thousand hours you could used to pursue something different.
Anyway was just a hyperthetical question out of interst.
Thoughts welcome.. What would you do?