Forum Topics Bitcoin as an investment
Strawman
Added a month ago

I was going to post this on the AI thread, but will put here so as to not derail the convo and distract those that aren't interested in Bitcoin (as a note to new members, you can mute threads if you dont want to see them in your newsfeed)

Anyway, there's an interesting angle with AI that most people are not talking about.

The power of AI agents is not only growing, but so too is their capacity to coordinate and cooperate to reach aligned goals. In fact, like with humans, effective cooperation would inevitably enhance their collective ability and reach quite a lot.

But, like us, the bots face the same issue of trust with unknown economic actors. Something money, of course, solves. But the type of money matters a hell of a lot. If autonomous AI agents are ever going to function effectively as a network, they need a means to transmit value instantly, cheaply and permissionlessly. In the same way they must communicate with each other via TCP/IP they will need to center on an agreed value transfer protocol.

Of course, there is only one with the necessary liquidity, depth, infrastructure, programmability and decentralisation to be credible (sorry crypto bros)

The reality is that traditional payment systems are not built for this. They're burdened by KYC/AML requirements, have painfully slow settlement times, and very high fees. Moreover, they are structurally incompatible with agents that function without legal identities. There is just no way to stream micropayments between non-human actors in real time over the SWIFT network.

Closed proprietary networks could attempt to solve this, but the fact that they are permissioned, censorable, and have direct operating costs create inescapable frictions and limitations. Conversely, an open protocol that can be spun up by anyone (or anything) at any time, in a matter of minutes, and that is infinitely scalable.. well, it's not even close.

It’s an engineering necessity, not an ideological one -- if an agent needs to stream micro-payments for real-time GPU cycles, pay a fraction of a cent for a single API data pull, or outsource a tiny sub-task to another bot, it simply cant do that with the legacy banking world.

Just this month lightning labs released a set of tools that allows agents to operate natively and autonomously on the bitcoin lightning network. I'd urge you to read the release, cause it's kind of wild that AI agents can now just set up a wallet and accept payment without needing anyone's permission or knowledge.

I liked how Jason Lowry wrote on twitter: “AI agents independently discovering that Bitcoin gives them cyber sovereignty & then starting a bidding war with humanity over the only remaining Bitcoin available is not priced in.”

(That's because I like anything that reinforces a bias, haha)

But even if theres a lot of wishful thinking there, you'd think that, at the least, it would add some marginal demand for BTC.

Annyway, my view is that if you are bullish the internet and bullish AI, it's kind of hard not to be indirectly bullish bitcoin. At least over the very long term. It's just hard to see how BTC doesnt continue to gain adoption, utility and value as AI become more abundant, more capable and (most importantly) more networked.

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Raseekingalpha
Added a month ago

Basically what you are saying that or aiagents to do financial trnsactions bitcoin is the safest way- am i right

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Strawman
Added a month ago

Well, safest, but more just the only internet native way.

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tomsmithidg
Added a month ago

The tax man is not going to like this @Strawman . Also, how are the bot 'owners' going to make the bots surrender their bitcoin?

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Chagsy
Added 2 months ago

Man, BTC is taking a beating.

Trumps pick for the Fed looks likely to set up an exciting week.

“May you live in interesting times” and all that….

wish I had some more dry powder but pulled the trigger on SDR and PME yesterday and nothing left. Might have to have a careful portfolio review when I get back from my ski trip, ahem, conference.

c

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wtsimis
Added 2 months ago

All part of the journey to 1m+ USD .

Happily adding to my stack at 80k USD

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Shapeshifter
Added 3 months ago

For those interested in Bitcoin this is an interesting viewpoint by Jordan McKinney on limitations of the Lightning Network and of Bitcoin in its current iteration. He points to a possible fractional reserve Bitcoin system with compliance audits of institutions and breaking of the hard cap as an outcome of the current trajectory of Bitcoin - basically another fiat system. He suggests a hard fork may be necessary.

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Shapeshifter
Added 3 months ago

Yes @BigStrawbs70 I can see how a solution like this could scale but the problem I have is when you step off the base layer you introduce problems that an on-chain solution like Bitcoin was solving in the first place.

A layer 3 solution like Chaumian Mint reintroduces custodial and trust issues and as a result of this potentially censorship and inflation problems.  Chaumian Mint is custodial. The real Bitcoin sits in a multisig wallet controlled by the Federation members. If a majority of those members collude - or are forced by a government to sign - they can drain the layer 1 vault. The Federation can refuse to let specific people enter or exit the system and along with this problem would come almost inevitable government regulation with KYC rules essentially turning the Community Pool into a bank. And yes it would be hard for users to verify that the Mint hasn't printed more tokens than it has BTC - inflation.

So counterparty risk, centralisation, censorship, ownership, inflation all problems introduced by an off-chain layer 3 solution - this is not a trustless solution. Widespread adoption of a solution is needed for Bitcoin (either a layer or hard fork) to support the increasing block transaction fee that will be necessary to maintain the underlying network security as the block subsidy reduces to zero.

Is the world willing to accept a layer solution of Bitcoin that has compromises? Maybe. Also I think the power of government regulation is underestimated. For example many privacy coins have been pushed off exchanges and in some countries made illegal making the trade of these difficult.

Just as an additional comment a pure base layer on-chain solution like Kaspa has some interesting technological advantages over Bitcoin. It had a similar fair launch protocol like Bitcoin (no pre-mine, no ICO, no VC allocation, equal start), is PoW, open source, no CEO and has a hard cap. It currently produces 10 blocks every second and has sub second confirmations. What it doesn't have is Bitcoins massive global network and it will take something very special to catch Bitcoin at this point.

I don't have a dog in this fight I just find all of this fascinating as the future foundations of the world financial system lie in this technology.

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Chagsy
Added 3 months ago

One can keep going further and further down the rabbit hole and I’m not overly sure how useful it is but if you’re putting a chunk of money into an asset, it probably is. The problem I’ve always had is that after a certain level of research it becomes a) too complicated for mortals to understand, and b) an ever-branching, multiplicative task such that you forget which direction/question you started off trying to head in/solve. Instead you now have 11 more branches of inquiry to follow and it’s 02:30 am and you need to have lie down cos you’re feeling unusual.

I have intermittent bouts of trying to keep up to date with the various inter-reactions between L1s L2s and occasional L3s. I gave up on new L0s as I think that race is over. I held some AVAX for a while thinking they might attract institutional (regular finance) money for their subnets, but they didn’t.

my very brief summary is that Base is winning the optimistic L2 war.

Arbitrum is hanging on ok and likely has a better safety track record.

In the zk space Starknet and zk Sync seem to be neck and neck. Starknet is running a BTCFi summer and it will be really interesting to see how that goes. It promises BTC staking with phenomenal security speed and low gas. It is not yet decentralised enough and not infrequent outages indicate the trilemma hasn’t been solved as yet

I should point out ETH is agnostic - it wins whatever L2 is dominant

What I hold:

BTC in a cold wallet and ETFs

ETH in a cold wallet

Staked ETH on Lido

Staked BTC on Starknet.

But my largest holding is on GLV a “pool of pools” (providing liquidity) GMX protocol on Arbitrum. It’s a basket of USDC (50%) and BTC and ETH predominantly. It has consistently provided 20-30% in fees for ~5 years, whilst still allowing upside to the underlying assets. You can download the tokens onto a hot or cold wallet but that doesn’t solve protocol or smart contract risk. So, there is that to think of

It’s done pretty well, and is pretty battle tested.

disclaimer, disclaimer, disclaimer


c


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lyndonator
Added 3 months ago

I watched this as well, and I appreciate how clearly he broke down (what he sees as) the issue and explained it.

However, I think his argument is fundamentally flawed. Or, maybe more accurately, he is saying because Bitcoin and Lightning doesn't perfectly to solve all perceived issues with money and banking, entirely trustlessly, for all people on the planet at once, it can't work at all. Umm... what tech solution has ever worked, out of the box, at scale, from day one?

He is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

@BigStrawbs70 has covered it, but if I was to paraphrase:

Bitcoin solves the first, and biggest, problem with fiat currency; The ability for governments to inflate it as they desire.

That is the trust issue. The entire system does not need to be trustless for everyone - I trust visa (with a few thousand dollars only). I'd happily use Bitcoin on my visa card (when the time comes to actually use Bitcoin as currency).

Most of my wealth is in shares, controlled be a central registry, and I trust the government to correctly regulate that (as the incentives align for them to do so).

Now, I know a lot of the world is not as lucky as me - they will want a more trustless layer 2 solution; Lightning may be appropriate for them. While it may not be able to scale to everyone in the world using it, it may well work for a while, in certain jurisdictions that adopt it. If/when the number of users make it unworkable - people will adopt another layer 2 solution.

Each person will choose (most probably without knowing all the details, and based on what works where they are in the world) the solution that works, not perfectly, but well enough, for them.

Lastly, he seems to have a issue with fractional reserve banking - which is not an issue for a currency/platform to solve. As long as people, should they choose, have a way to store their savings in a way that is cannot be lost (i.e on chain) then it is up to them whether they use that - or opt to deposit it into a bank for lending out.


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Shapeshifter
Added 3 months ago

That's funny @Chagsy and I can see from the depth of your response you have made it to 02:30am several times feeling unusual.

Your post is a good reminder to me that this is a complex ecosystem which is really only in the early stages of its technological journey.

I have previously had a little poke around in the zero knowledge space when I was looking at the privacy coin Monero which does allow for trustless interaction and I was amazed to see that this technology has evolved to also allow transaction compression with big efficiency gains as well. Privacy and efficiency. Wow.

Starknet also looks amazing with developers building things that can't exist on Ethereum, like fully on-chain video games and high-frequency trading bots and it has about $500m locked into smart contracts of the network. That's pretty deep pockets which demonstrates trust and liquidity.

The question on my mind is how much of this do you need to understand to currently interact with it because it is complex. Mass adoption needs retail money interacting several layers away. Presently you need to be seriously committed to get your head around this space.

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Mujo
Added 3 months ago

Bitcoin just surged +$3,000 in 1 hour and reclaimed $90,000 as $120 million worth of levered shorts were liquidated.

Minutes later, $200 million worth of levered longs were liquidated, with Bitcoin now down to $86,000.

That’s a $140 BILLION swing in market cap in under 2 hours.

c83b4fa78406e27a6ede3fcd143768c30870e2.png

Per twitter

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