Forum Topics Bitcoin as an investment
raymon68
3 months ago

By Richard Henderson

April 29, 2024 at 8:48 AM GMT+10


Bitcoin (BTC) ETF Bandwagon Heads to Australia After $53 Billion Haul in US - Bloomberg

Australia Poised for Spot Bitcoin ETF Launches

Australia is poised for several spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETFs) launches, mirroring trends in the United States and Hong Kong as major issuers like VanEck and BetaShares are lining up to list their products, potentially unlocking billions in investment.


The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), which handles most of the country’s equity’s trading, is expected to approve the first spot Bitcoin ETFs for its main board by year-end, following the immense success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, which have amassed over $53 billion in 2024 alone, with offerings from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity.


Justin Arzadon, head of digital assets for Sydney-based BetaShares, noted that inflows in the US “prove digital assets are here to stay,” and added the firm has secured ASX tickers for both spot Bitcoin and spot Ether ETFs.


Australia's massive $2.3 trillion pension market could be a significant driver of inflows, with a quarter of the country's retirement savings residing in self-managed superannuation 'programs' that allow individuals to control their investments.

This wave of applications represents a second attempt at launching spot Bitcoin ETFs in Australia as two years ago similar products debuted on the CBOE Australia, a smaller exchange accounting for less than a fifth of equity trading volume.


However, these efforts met with limited success. A spot Bitcoin ETF by Sydney-based Cosmos Asset Management was ultimately delisted due to low investor participation while the lone survivor, the Global X 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, has managed only $62 million in assets. Monochrome Asset Management, led by former Binance Australia CEO Jeff Yew, is currently seeking another CBOE listing.


Musing = Maybe that Portfolio of BTC etf 1% weighting is on the Aust 'investment' Horizon.




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Parko5
3 months ago

Saw this post on Coinspot about the Bitcoin halving coming up on the 20 April.

https://www.coinspot.com.au/bitcoinhalving

Interesting down the bottom of the page they had the previous Bitcoin halvings and the price 6 months later.

What do people think?


John


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RhinoInvestor
3 months ago

Looks like a bunch of favorable statistics published by someone who makes money from the volume of BTC trading … at least they qualify themselves in the fine print at the bottom.

DISC: BTC is held (until it reaches $1m … but not buying based upon this event)

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Parko5
4 months ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-01/bitcoin-on-verge-of-gamma-squeeze-after-rapid-run-toward-record-high

What are people's thoughts on the potential "Gamma Squeeze" that might occur for Bitcoin on the 29 March 2024?

The article says it could cause Bitcoin to go up massively on that day.

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nessy
4 months ago

@Parko5 I am not sure about going up massively on that day but with the ETF's attracting massive amounts of inflows which they have to match with bitcoin purchases there is scope for ongoing significant price rises. Halving the amount of bitcoin that can be mined will likely have a significant effect on ongoing price rises also. It is difficult to see bitcoin having a massive slump, but who knows what is around the corner - we have all been bitten by that bug before!

Nessy

disc: holder of BITB for a month at over a 50% gain!

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Rocket6
4 months ago

The US federal treasury is looking to introduce a 30% excise on electricity used for "digital asset mining", which would theoretically require miners in the US to report how much electricity their PC resources used and how much they paid for it.

One of the primary bear cases (in my opinion) for the cryptocurrency space is the insane amounts of energy we devote to mining (for those interested, accounts for 2.3% of all electricity in the USA). Globally, you say? 20GW, which is scarily close to Australia's total current demand for energy across the board.

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AlphaAngle
4 months ago

One thing to point out is that the energy budget for bitcoin will halve in about a month and will do so again every 4 years which means that if you are worried about energy consumption you have to be very bullish on price or the issue would resolve itself over time.

There are many other arguments as to why this should not be a concern e.g. cheap energy is unwanted energy, grid load balancing, incentivising renewable buildout by improving economics, incentivising gas flare utilization, incentivising landfill methane utilisation and also that it just a good use of the energy we generate.

As an investor its hard to worry too much about the energy consumption unless you are a bull though ;)

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RhinoInvestor
4 months ago

Good luck taxing energy in Kazakhstan or wherever bitcoin is being mined these days … this data is a bit old but pretty interesting.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/top-10-bitcoin-mining-countries-their-renewable-electricity-mix/#:~:text=The%20World%20According%20to%20Bitcoin,at%20the%20end%20of%202021.

The flip side of this argument is that Bitcoin is actually a proxy for energy (I.e. underwritten by energy costs) so if the cost of coal / oil etc. stays high then bitcoin price stays elevated (until the world fully transitions to “free renewables”).

I think when the next halving occurs soon then there is twice the work to create a bitcoin (I.e. the energy required doubles) … maybe reason to be even more bearish (or bullish).

Back up the rabbit hole to the ASX Small Caps

DISC: Hold BTC and ETH IRL

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Bogan
4 months ago

Yeah, @AlphaAngle I don't think that's actually right about the energy budget halving. I am more interested in the monetary theory aspect of BTC than the computer nerd stuff, so I am no expert however.

My understanding of the halving (or the halvening as I've heard more and more numpties say lately) is that the reward measured in BTC for mining a new block is cut in half. Sorry, that part is fact, not my understanding. i.e. if you solve the big tricky math problem inherent in the current block which gives you the right to create a new block, you receive the block reward of 6.5 BTC. It took me a long time to understand that a new block is NOT a new BTC as they are created at the same time and in the same way, but they are not the same thing.

Halving the block reward in NO WAY means that the electricity used to mine each block is somehow decreased. As BTC becomes more mainstream, more and more miners will come online, and it will become more and more competitive. A whole bunch of new people competing to solve the block riddle means more and more compute (I didn't know compute was used in this way until very recently) will be used for each new block, which will initially speed up the average block time before the difficulty adjustment kicks in to ensure the average new block time remains roughly 10 minutes by making the block riddle (I've just invented that phrase, but I'm sticking with it) more and more difficult, which will require more and more compute per block. So over time, the energy used to mine a new Bitcoin will grow higher and higher.

The energy used to mine a BTC when there were only a roomful of nerds with their $2,000 laptops getting 50 BTC every 10 minutes wasn't 8 times as much as it is today - that's just not how it works.

Your second paragraph is more where it's at - that and the fact that BTC is really important and therefore a large, and growing amount of energy is warranted.

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AlphaAngle
3 months ago

@Bogan

The miners have to buy energy. Assume the bitcoin price doesn't rise the money available to buy the energy halves with each halving cycle.

A few cycles later the energy use is minimal because only a few bitcoin are being produced. If everyone kept at it but for no reward they would all go broke. Let's assume today's price of roughly 100k aud who's gonna complain about a couple of million dollars worth of electricity?

Now say the price were to more than double then the energy budget increases because the miners have to sell bitcoin to pay their bills.

Now I think the price will go much higher therefore supporting more energy use. If you think its going to zero or even just stay at 100k then the energy use will drop.

If you are worried about the energy use long term the only logical position to take is that the price is going to more than double every 4 years in fiat terms. (Or the price of energy could halve)

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