Yes, I watched that one earlier tonight @Hackofalltrades and also this one: GeoInvest Insights: Episode 9: Things You Need to Know Before Investing in Rare Earths!

This is not the Australian cricketer Michael Bevan, but a geologist with the same name who has a great way of explaining things in simple terms to us non-geo's who are likely making a few incorrect assumptions when reading most ASX announcements about rare earth deposits. That "Intro to Rare Earths" episode of GeoInvest Insights is a great introduction to the sector, and so is the chat he had with the MoM boys that you've linked to @Hackofalltrades.

One of the main things to note is that the important stats are the MREO percentages, or Magnet Rare Earth Oxides, as rare earth magnets are about 40% more efficient (40% stronger magnetic field) than non-rare-earth magnets and these magnets are needed in everything from electric cars to wind turbines - pretty much all green technologies require magnets. The main number that gets bandied around by explorers and developers is TREO or Total REOs, however that always includes the two most abundant rare earths, Cerium and Lanthanum, which are worth very little as they are not rare and are rarely used, particularly cerium (Ce).

The four lightest REEs (Rare Earth Elements) are lanthanum (La), cerium (Ce), praseodymium (Pr), and neodymium (Nd), but it's those last two that matter (NdPr) along with the heavier rare earths which are more scarce; i.e. harder to find.

Michael Bevan (MB) argues that a much more useful number would be "TREO ex-cerium", because more than half of all of the rare earths in a deposit could be cerium which is virtually worthless, so we should be focused on the other elements that are going to be profitable. To give you some perspective cerium (Ce) is a "Rare Earth Element" but it's not rare at all; in fact Ce is the Earth's 25th-most-abundant element at 68 parts per million, cerium is actually more abundant than copper, and it's worth nothing.

In terms of the three types of REE/REO deposits that MB describes:

1. Hard Rock REO deposits (such as Carbonatite-related REE mineralisation)
2. Ionic rare earths
3. Clay hosted rare earths

Lynas is type 1 (Hard Rock/Carbonatite) and MB doesn't discuss those types of deposits because his subscribers are after the next junior REO miner that's going to make it big, and those companies have mostly ionic or clay hosted deposits. From what I can ascertain, Arafura's Nolans deposit is similar to what Lynas has - Nolans is hosted within fluorapatite veins containing allanite and monazite, and is rich in the magnet-feed rare earths neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr). MB doesn't discuss Nolans either.

Further reading on Nolans: https://resourcingtheterritory.nt.gov.au/minerals/mineral-commodities/ree

In his GeoInvest Insights YouTube Channel, MB has so done episodes on Meteoric Resources - "World's Largest Ionic Rare Earth Deposit?" (ASX:MEH), Cobra Resources (LSE:COBR), Viridis Mining and Metals - Colossus IAC Project Review (ASX:VMM), Red Metals - Sybella Rare Earth Project Review (ASX:RDM), Godolphin - Narraburra Rare Earth Element Project Review (ASX:GRL), Brazilian Rare Earths (ASX:BRE) - "The Only Rare Earth Investment you Will Ever Need?", Lindian Resources (ASX:LIN) - Kangankunde - The King, Carbonatite Rare Earths Review, Equinox Resources (ASX:EQN) - Brazilian Rare Earth Project Review, American Rare Earths - Halleck Creek Project Review (ASX: ARR), and the most recent three episodes have been on:

• Torr Metals (TSXV: TMET) Kolos Copper and Filion Gold Project Reviews;
• Carnaby (ASX:CNB) Greater Dutchess, Pilbara and Malmac Projects Review; and
• Terra Metals (ASX:TM1) Huge PGE Discovery????

Note however that Michael doesn't get into anything other than the geology - he isn't interested in the people running these businesses, their history, their capital structure, their funding arrangements, although as he mentioned on Friday's MoM episode, he does consider things like access to infrastructure, roads, etc. in terms of whether you could even construct a mine or processing plant in some of these locations. But these episodes of GeoInvest Insights are all about the geology - and on that he is VERY good.

I just wish he's talked about Lynas and Arafura.

Everything Rare Earths with Mike Bevan [Money of Mine episode, Friday June 28th, 2024]

Disclosure: I hold Lynas (LYC) shares in my SMSF.

ASM is hard rock deposit which is an area that Bevan is not interested in.

I shared some details about the Toongi deposit a while back.

I think it will be a challenge for ASM to develop Toongi to be honest which consist of Calcian Bastnaesite and Natroniobite.

In addition, I haven't found any mines that can process natroniobite which contains Niobium.

One of the reasons why I have not been back in ASM for the long term. Even so I would not put all my money in a rare earths company even if they had some MOUs. Need some binding agreements to form a strong thesis.

Having said that, MP materials does operate a rare earths mine in Mountain Pass that consists of Bastnaesite

Overall it's such a difficult sector to invest in at the moment. Although I nearly caught the WA1 hype discovery at Arunta with my order around $4 before they announced that massive extension of mineralisation.

I called them out on the Ahmad Saleem video. He said something that is incorrect. That NdPr is substitutable. This is incorrect. You can't change the physical characteristics. I have said it before, if manufacturers want to use less NdPr...that comes at a cost.....extra weight and reduced efficiency. And by the time they pay for bigger motor, bigger battery and then offset those with lighter chassis (ie aluminium)....it is not really worth it. Even if NdPr prices go up x5 to what they are now...like US$500/kg.

Also when talking about how the market operates...they didn't even mention the US/Euro tariffs....

I feel the MoM guys just are good at creating a fun show...but often they are factually incorrect. And they don't ever admit or correct themselves. 

I'll have a listen to the other video now...

Interesting video with Mike Bevan.

But i don't understand why he focuses on the junior rare earth miners? Companies like Lynas, Arafura, Hastings, Iluka etc etc. are all about (or are) producing REO in the next 3-5 years. All the companies they went through....are at least 10 years away from production. At least! He even said Brazilian Rare Earths will have along exploration journey!

At the 39 min mark he speaks about the geopolitical aspect briefly....He said that the rare earth oxide has to be sent to china to be turned into perm magnet....that is why companies like Posco (Korea) are ramping up their magnet manufacturing...and why I expect them to be a cornerstone equity investor in the ARU cap raise to complete FID.

at the 1:13 mark..he talks about how only the best (as defined by quality of the deposit (ie %) and how to access (ie easy to dig)) project survive the bust periods. Again..ARU has survived 20 years and all the booms and busts....ha.

Hey Slymeat - I wrote this about a year back (I don't think I copy pasted any of it, but it's been a while) when I was trying to research ASM/the rare earths industry. It's a pretty opaque industry and I found accurate information on some things very hard to get unless you were willing to pay $1000s of dollars. There was a reasonable amount of information conflicting between sources. Obviously DYOR - this was my notes and I have certainly missed things.

Overview of the Rare Earths Industry

General Overview

The Rare Earth Industry is small and only about $4 billion dollars (I don’t know how this is calculated), though most predictions have the industry growing at 10% per year. I suspect it might grow more quickly than this, particularly if the price kicks up. NdPr accounts for 91% of the total value of TREO. (https://rainbowrareearths.com/our-projects/rare-earth-elements/) 

Many of you would have heard that rare earth metals aren’t all that rare. They aren’t rare on absolute terms, but they are very rare in economically mineable grades and ore bodies. Effectively, our ability to access them is very rare and this is unlikely to change. 

In addition to their rarity, they are also very difficult to process. Rare Earth’s are often found together and usually require a very difficult technical processing involving both separation and metalisation.

Why are rare earth metals important? Strategically, it’s mainly magnets. Neodymium is used in many products that require electricity and motors, including cars and turbines. Essentially, Neodymium (Nd) magnets (with Pr, Fe, and B) are the strongest permanent magnet known to man and there simply aren’t replacements. The Neodymium magnets usually have other rare metals mixed with it, depending on whether you need performance at temp, high coercivity, or wish to reduce the price. These metals are often very difficult to substitute, which is why they are important. Rare Earths are also used in small quantities for a large range of computer goods, etc, which is very important commercially, and there are some important military applications, particularly in alloys. 

I think that the military threat of this is sometimes overstated (we just don’t need that much for military purposes), but the commercial dependence is probably understated. China has deliberately dominated this industry, using its market power to attack competitors. They were successful in dominating the industry prior to 2010, cut supplies of rare earths to Japan in 2010 over a South China Sea dispute, destroyed Mountain Peak after this, and may even have been involved in the political issues Lynas has had in Malaysia. (I think Terbium is important for military)

The market is opaque and finding prices for most of these metals was hard, with limited data available on previous prices. Prices were often in oxides or in Yuan.  

Summary of Rare Earths - https://lynasrareearths.com/summary-of-rare-earths/ 

Ore deposits and reserves

China has by far the vast majority of the world’s ore reserves (~37%), with significant other deposits in Vietnam (effectively China controlled) (18%), Russia (10%), and Brazil (18%). (USGS) Perhaps 80% of China’s reserves (~30% of world reserves) come from the Bayan Obo mine.  

Ore Mining

China also dominates the mining space. Estimates are that China produces around 51% of the ore officially, another 19% through illegal mining (Yes, 19% of world production…), US 10%, Australia 8%, and the rest of the world 15%. 

The reason more is not produced outside of China is that many of the deposits outside of China are not economical and China is not afraid to use its market power. 

Separation and Refining 

The problem a lot of miners have is that separating the different products out is extremely complicated. They can sell their product as a concentrate, but this means that they suffer an extremely steep discount.

Currently this part of the process is dominated by China. 

The only companies currently separating rare earths outside of China on a commercial scale that I’m aware of are Lynas (Australia), MP Materials (USA), and Neo Performance Metals (Europe). There are, however, a number of companies developing this ability, including ASM (Demonstration pilot plant completed in 2008), and some have demonstrated it in a pilot plant. I’m not too worried that ASM will be able to separate their rare earths - they have been working on their project for a long time and from what I’ve seen are much more developed than most other projects.  

Metalization 

China completely dominates this area. 

I believe that ASM is the only company currently able to do this on a commercial scale (pilot plant is going into commercial production) for most rare earths, though Neometals seems to be able to do it for some strategic metals. There is apparently the capacity to do this in Japan somewhere and I suppose the USA must be able to do it in some capacity also (their military would not be that mad).

Since I wrote this there seems to be more action on this area - Lynas seems to be working with MP materials.  

Magnets 

China also dominates this space, though Japan and the USA can produce some, and South Korea where ASM operates is looking to be able to produce these. I believe MP Materials and other companies may be looking to develop this. 

Zirconium, Niobium, and Hafnium

In addition to rare earths, Zirconium, Niobium, and Hafnium are also significant commodities for ASM.

Niobium is mainly used to improve the qualities of steel. It commands a high price that is normally stable, but this may drop off with the slowing down of Chinese construction.

Zirconium is used for a range of things in its metal and other forms.

Hafnium is a very minor metal and usually produced as a byproduct of producing zirconium for use in nuclear facilities. ~70t are produced annually globally, and ASM’s facility will have the capability to well over double worldwide Hafnium production. It remains to be seen whether increased supply can create a stronger market for Hafnium through regular supply, or whether this will mean ASM can sell only a fairly limited amount of the metal. 

Ballparks on market size for metals

The market size here is a pain to work out. A 3-4 billion dollar figure is thrown around but I don’t know whether this figure includes magnets or not - that really matters! Apparently 91% of that is Nd and Pr.  (not confirmed, please research)

...

For competition, Mp materials appear to want to be serious competitor in this area in a few years, Lynas may move into it, Neo Metals are worth watching, and Japan apparently has some capacity, but I haven't been able to find anything. Pensana wants to produce metals, but I think they are ~5 years behind.

With those disclaimers… Total annual metal value by metal may be… 

Rare Earths - ~2-4 billion?? (Let’s say 3 bill, depending on whether industry includes magnets and how much value in that) (Nd & Pr 91%)?

Zirconium - ~2 billion?

Titanium Metal (not pigment) - 4 billion???

Niobium - 7 billion??? (Mostly FerroNiobium)  

Hafnium - 52 million (I think ASM hopes this will expand) - Most of this comes as a byproduct of I think zirconium in nuclear uses.

Assuming ASM captured maybe 20% of 3 bil Rare Earths metalization, 10% of Zirconium, 20% of Titanium, 2% of Niobium (mostly turned into ferro-niobium), and 50% of Hafnium, that would mean a potential revenue of ~1765 mil, with a profit of maybe ~150-300 mil per year. 

Greater than 10-20% market capture may be reasonable given that Lynas and maybe only 1 or two other competitors may come into the market. Given China’s dominance, I think it would be unrealistic to expect a figure greater than 50%. It really does depend on whether that 4 billion industry figure includes magnets though...

These ballpark figures seem to suggest that it’s feasible for at least 2-3 plants to be built, possibly more. 

Main Competitors 

China (will use market power to bankrupt companies) 

55% of global mine output (https://roskill.com/market-report/rare-earths/)

Maybe 90% of separation and metallization. 

Lynas (currently produces separated oxides etc. - developing processing in the USA) Has signed agreements with companies in the US to develop separation facilities for both light rare earth and heavy rare earth. I am not sure whether this touches on metallization. 

Neo Performance Materials Inc. (part of old Molycorp) (NEO.TO)  

Apparently owns the “only commercial rare earth separation facility in Europe.” I don’t think these guys can metalise most rare earths yet. 

MP materials (US - Mountain Pass) 

 Produces maybe 15% of rare earth’s consumed, they are developing the ability to separate NdPr oxide, Lanthanum, and Cerium. They have announced that they are seeking to build a metal, alloy, and magnet making manufacturing facility in the US, but I am not sure how they are doing this. 

Other Potentially significant groups include:

Reetec - Has developed a separation technique in EU - seems to be close to commercialising. Separation by itself is not a major threat. 

Vital Metals - looking to sell rare earth oxide to reetec

Pensana - Has a project in Angola - Wants to set up a mine to magnet supply chain, but seems maybe 3-5 years behind ASM. 

Arafura - REO

Energy Fuels

Appia Energy

Search Minerals

Rare X

Useful Documents and Reading

Breakdown of the Sector - https://7b5ada19-e8f1-46c1-9324-1cd5cb6510ef.filesusr.com/ugd/53af0a_0c4e31fb12b948acb1d36879922109ea.pdf  

Scoping Study - https://asmd.irmau.com/site/PDF/0d270d08-afbc-436d-adac-8075042290ce/SCOPINGSTUDYDEMONSTRATESFEASIBILITYOFMETALSPLANT 

Statistics on REE - https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/rare-earths-statistics-and-information 

Great general overview of the rare earth industry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSgI58fLT7s 

Australian Gov. Rare Earth Information 

https://www.ga.gov.au/data-pubs/data-and-publications-search/publications/australian-minerals-resource-assessment/rare-earths