Great question Kingcash,
I would say my main criteria is value. The price you pay is the most important factor for improving returns in my view. No other factor is near as important. However, this doesnt mean investments have to be "cheap" they just need to be well below what I see as the intrinsic value. Buying at the right price provides an asymmetric return expectation, "heads I win, tails I don't lose to much". I think this significantly reduces risk. The intrinsic value is made up of valuation, management, outlook etc.
I have a long checklist of items about 30-40 items. It is basically a list to make sure I understand the company and a red flag checker. It looks at what the company does, financial performance, management, what type of investment it would be (P/E play, long term compounder, turnaround), competitors, valuations, inflection points/catalyst to buy.
Some general rules/criteria for an investment I make in a company:
- An expected return of at least 15% CAGR. If I can't expect this then I should just be investing in the index. This is to reduce risk.
- Sit on the idea for a week.
- Dollar cost average into a position.
- Thesis and expectations of how thesis plays out needs to be written up.
- Risk vs reward. Must have asymmetric returns.
- List the risks and what would trigger a sell.
After reviewing some recent underperformance of some of my shares in comparison to the shares that had done well I came up with some new rules:
- DCA over a longer period of time. I would previously buy over two or three months. This should be more like 6 months. Let the story play out. Side note: Over a period of less than 1 year, almost all of my investments had a 100% price movement from bottom to top (the first date would have been around June with many investments made October and later). Company share prices move around magnitudes more than the index!
- Do not buy if news is coming. You are just putting yourself at risk. So what if the price jumps 20%, it could also go down 20%. The 20% jump on good news is a good thing as it potentially increases the risk adjusted return. IE higher conviction and less downside risk, effectively the thesis you predicted is happening, its not just a guess.
- You must have market sediment behind you when buying. There is no point catching the falling knife. I'm not investing for a 20% upside, I'm investing for 100%+. If I miss the first part of the gain but have the momentum of the market then I am reducing my risk I am wrong. Bad news normally follows previous bad news and good news follows good news. I am in no way a chartist but it is true that the current trend tends to continue. News and the subsequent price reaction combined are a great signal.
- Must have an alternative investment to compare your current idea too. If I had researched a company and really liked it as an investment in the past I would have bought it. Now I am going to make sure I have the friction of having to choose between at least two companies. This puts pressure on to really find the best idea.