25-June-2021:  We often talk about industries with strong tailwinds and megatrends behind them, however spare a thought for the disrupted and the challenged industries of our world.  

Tobacco is often seen as such, but I do note that many tobacco companies have morphed into providers of nicotine patches and other products ostensibly designed to assist people to give up smoking.  It would be interesting to know if such companies still derive the majority of their revenue from cigarettes, or from the "quit" products.

Another couple of industries facing strong headwinds are energy coal (used for electricity generation) and oil companies - together known as fossil fuel companies.  The largest fund manager in the world, BlackRock, is steadily removing all companies from their discretionary portfolios that derive the majority of their revenue from fossil fuels, although their progress thus far is not quick enough for many activist groups.  See here:  https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/blackrock-heading-to-net-zero-but-holds-large-fossil-fuel-investments-for-now-62628334

And now oil companies are being sued by Governments over knowing that their products accelerated climate change, and lying about it - see here:  https://www.reuters.com/business/exxon-must-face-massachusetts-lawsuit-alleging-climate-change-deceit-2021-06-23/

While there are valid arguments that the world is not yet ready to switch off base-load power generated by coal and to stop using oil, and that these commodities will be required for many years to come, there is also the argument that the prices of both will continue to trend downwards simply because demand will wane over time, not increase.

I heard Mathan and Gaurav on "The Call" recently arguing that because no new energy coal mines are going to receive approvals now, the supply side should tighten, potentially allowing for elevated pricing for some years while demand remains, which should benefit those who manage to survive and keep producing.  Or they could be wrong about that.  While there probably won't be any new thermal coal mines approved for development here in Australia and in many other first-world countries, I'm not sure we can be that sure about EVERY country in the world taking the same stance.  And the thermal/energy coal mines we already have now globally (producing coal) could well be enough anyway without adding any more, and there might still be more supply than demand in the mid-term.

My own thoughts are:  When there are so many great companies out there with strong tailwinds and very bright futures, why bottom-fish in challenged industries and sectors where there MIGHT be value, but only if things pan out in a certain way?  There are far easier ways to make money.

If anybody has an alternative view or agrees but would like to add some other challenged or disrupted industries or sectors to the list, the mic is open.