Forum Topics Thoughts? (Grantham: This is a bubble, this is serious)
VFAPL68
Added 5 years ago

Grantham has some indicators, other indicators Amount of margin loans (approx 1 billion atm) inflation staying around longer causes pressure on Fed, RBA, market spooked by inflation stickiness, a 10-20% market drop could kick bigger drop as margin calls roll out. Freedom day in GB turns into massive disaster resulting in more deaths, lockdowns in GB, new variant from Freedom day.  Given below par Chinese produced vaccines, COVID issues in China affects supply chains.Buy BBUS.

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Solvetheriddle
Added 5 years ago

Grantham has called 15 of the last 3 market crashes. when the next one happens he will be able to say he called it. 

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steno
Added 5 years ago

I've listened to numerous podcasts featuring Grantham over the years. It's always the same thing. Very bearish on everything except the VC investing he is doing. Eventually, he will be right.

Hussman is super smart and I enjoy reading his posts. He is always bearish but provides heaps of interesting data to back up his thoughts.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210715/

I like the following quote I heard somewhere: "the pessimist is eventually right but the optimist is rich"

 

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Onefang
Added 5 years ago

Would be interested to hear people's thoughts on this interview about an imminent market crash?...

https://livewiremarkets.podbean.com/

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Noddy74
Added 5 years ago

@OneFang, Jeremy Grantham has been saying for some years that this is a major bubble and we should all run for the exits.  Below are just a few of the articles where he has done so.  On the one hand you can point at some really good form he's shown in predicting market downturns in 1987, 1999/2000 and 2007 - and protecting his client's capital in doing so.  On the other if you had sold out when Grantham had started calling the top of this market - and stayed out - you would of missed out on a period of extraordinary capital growth (just look at the Strawman index).  There's no doubt at some stage he will be proven right again.  He'll view it as vindication, his detractors will point to the stopped clock analogy.  I don't have a view either way but I do know Grantham is much smarter and more experienced than I am - and yet this latest bull market has proven even he can't predict the top to a useable level of accuracy.  I'm pretty close to all chips in - but I do keep an eye on inflation and the long end of the bond curve.  If that starts to steepen and there are drivers for that persisting I will reassess.

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/06/04/why-jeremy-grantham-is-wrong-about-a-share-market-bubble/

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1743d0x0ms3yx/why-is-no-one-listening-to-jeremy-grantham

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/coppelson-my-rebuttal-to-jeremy-grantham-s-bubble-thesis

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/particularly-dangerous-bubble-expert-s-jeremy-grantham-warning-to-investors-20210625-p5845n.html

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/6-essential-takeaways-from-my-exclusive-interview-with-jeremy-grantham

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/grantham-this-is-a-bubble-this-is-serious

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/jeremy-grantham-s-four-signs-of-an-upcoming-crash

https://rogermontgomery.com/jeremy-grantham-says-beware-the-market-melt-up/

https://rogermontgomery.com/the-end-or-the-beginning/#more-14381

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Rick
Added 5 years ago

@Onefang, I listenened to the Livewire podcast Grantham: This is a bubble, this is serious published in May.

Yes, I believe there will be another crash. Why wouldn't there be? The big question is when? There has been eight BIG crashes in 114 years (Stock Market Crash Statistics) That's an average of one big crash every 14 years. The big unknowns are, when will the next big crash hit, and what will be the cause of it? 

Crashes are not necessarily a bad thing if you take a long term view and have some spare cash. Despite having eight big crashes the stock market has still been one of the best investments in the long term.

When the market starts to look expensive, I find the best strategy is to start selling overpriced shares and converting a portion of your portfolio to cash. Recently I have been cashing up BHP when they go over $51. I can't see much more in the valuation over the next few years. Although, I find it really hard to resist buying an undervalued quality company to replace it! It's all good in theory! :)

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