Forum Topics Strawman Index 2021 performance Vs XAO
twofootedgiant
Added 5 years ago

EDIT: this was meant as a reply to SpectralRider

I agree with the perspectives of Bear77 and SebastianG above, but thought I'd add some additional thoughts.

I'm a skeptical sort, so I can't help considering the possibility that the stocks the Strawman Index has held recently were decided on more through a process of groupthink rather than a consensus of individuals independently evaluating the companies. I'm pretty new here so take my view with a grain of salt, but it seems to me that there is something of a snowball effect at play here within the Strawman platform. So potentially, the recent performance of the index has in a sense been partly by chance, i.e. that the memes that got traction happened to be ones that rocketed rather than ones that didn't do so well (of which there have been plenty this year, e.g. DW8, TNT, XST, CAN, BRN, NEA, and of course NXL).

It's something I think the community needs to guard against, and I also think this will be a distinct advantage of the Premium Index - with Premium members more likely to put in the effort to properly kick the tyres on a stock before throwing it into their portfolio. And, I assume, more willing to consider "boring" holdings like big banks and miners if they make sense in the broader context of the market / economy, rather than YOLOing everything into speccies and hoping for the best.

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Strawman
Added 5 years ago

A lot of good points made. 

I'd direct members to a post i came across a few years back which discussed the inevitability of short term underperformance within longer periods opf outperformance:

Every long-term investment strategy – even the most successful strategy – will experience periods of poor performance.

This is both desirable and necessary. Periods of poor performance relative to the market create a fresh crop of opportunities; but only for those who are patient and disciplined enough to maintain a long-term perspective.

Investors that would like to try to beat the market need to come to terms with this fact. Otherwise, they will be much better off investing in an index fund.

The full post can be read here -- i think it addresses the question really well.

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jwrostagno27
Added 5 years ago

If I had to have a quick guess without really delving deep into the intracacies of this, my guess would be that it is related to the latest lockdowns across the country. Lockdowns have been shown to really affect small companies more than larger more established ones and a lot of the companies in the strawman index are these smaller companies. I believe we should see an uptick when most states are out of lockdown, and then an even bigger up trend when we have gotten to a level of vaccination that allows business to run close to normal again, as we had closer to the start of the year before delta kicked in strong. 

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SpectralRider
Added 5 years ago

Hi all,

Just looking at the strawman Index over time vs Aus overall market and noticed a strong underperformance in the last 6 month period (-9% Vs +12%).

Keen to get a discussion going around percieved reasons for this and what our learnings are moving into the second half of CY21. Is the relative ouperformance the community delivered previously sustainable longer term, or is this a mean reversion period?

Cheers.

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Bear77
Added 5 years ago

I imagine a fair bit of that has to do with a rotation from growth to value in the wider market.  The sort of companies which did best in the Strawman index when it was flying have tended to be smaller companies that had huge potential but little in the way of profits in many cases.  Those companies tend to get overbought and overpriced during those "growth frenzy" periods in the market and they come back to earth when the hype wears off. 

An example is 3DP (Pointerra), a company that is still the largest position in the Strawman index, whose share price has halved since mid-Feb this year and is firmly heading down.  They still have value, however the market is attributing more sensible valuations to many of these companies today than it was two years ago.  In my opinion.  There are also a couple of companies, such as Pushpay (PPH) which were very popular here that have NOT lived up to their hype at all. 

PPH has had the founders and major shareholders leave/sell out, they've had senior executives leave (CEO in 2019, CFO this year), and they appear to have run out of "Mega-Churches" to target and have moved down the food chain to smaller organisations with less potential revenue.  I don't want to get into a discussion about the merits of either company.  I have not held 3DP or PPH in RL or in Strawman.com, because I thought they were overhyped, and the potential was being overestimated here, however I'm simply trying to present what I think is the predominant market view here, i.e. why their share prices have gone down and both appear to still be in downtrends.  And they're not alone. 

Envirosuite (EVS) is another that has been in the Strawman index for a while, probably since inception, and one I do hold both here and in RL, although I unfortunately bought them at significantly higher levels than where they are today.  EVS could fall into the same category as the other two - too much promise, not enough delivered.  However my own view is that the investment thesis is just taking longer to play out than expected with EVS and the market got impatient and many punters have simply sold out and moved on.  I believe the recent capital raise at 8.5 cps was a major catalyst for a wash-out with EVS, and it coincided with end-of-FY tax-loss selling as well.  At 12.5 cps, EVS is actually up +39% since their 30th June low of 9 cps, however they are still a long way below that 35.6 cps level they reached at the end of September 2019.

There are plenty of other examples, however if you look at the best performing ASX200 stocks of the past 2 years, many of them have been larger companies that are not in the Strawman index, such as the big banks.  The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Ex-A-REIT Index (XXJ) was up +35.69% in FY21, and it's risen another +1.6% since June 30.  That index (Financials) - now at 7373 - is actually up +80% since its 4081 Covid-low on 23-Mar-2020, and it contains the biggest companies on the ASX.  Financials is also the biggest sector in the S&P ASX 200, representing over 30% of the entire index (currently 30.3%), and the next largest sector is Materials, being another 18.3% of the index.  That sector includes Australia's mega-miners BHP (A$153.5 billion market cap), Rio Tinto (A$48.3 billion) and FMG (A$71 billion), as well as the entire gold mining sector, starting with Newcrest (NCM, A$21.3 billion) and Northern Star (NST, $11.6 billion market capitalisation).

The Financials and Materials sectors combined account for almost half of the ASX 200 index (currently 48.6%).  The biggest constituents of those sectors and of the index in total are very different companies in every respect to those held by the Strawman index.  I think the first year to 18 months of the Strawman index was a golden period for smaller SaaS companies and tech start-ups, with everybody looking for the next WAAAX company, and that is no longer the case.

My own view is that there are plenty of companies in the Strawman index that will do very well from here, but that many of them are currently trading at much more sensible valuations than where they were in 2019 or early 2020 (before Covid). 

One thing that a crash does - such as the March 2020 Covid-panic-induced crash - is remind investors that companies that are priced mostly on potential rather than fundamentals are usually hit much harder in a correction or crash, and can often take longer to recover as well.  It is generally the larger companies that have a consistent record of profitable operation that fall the least and recover the quickest.  It helps that many of those were less likely to be over-hyped and/or way-overpriced prior to the correction or crash, so there was less to "corrrect".  It is commonly known that people feel a sense of loss far more intensely than they feel when they have a proportionate gain, even a paper loss or paper gain, so losses tend to form stronger memories and change investor behaviour more than gains do.  I would suggest that March 2020 has scared a significant proportion of investors away from the sort of companies that provided most of the early gains for the Strawman index.

However - it is what it is.  I think the main value is in the significant contributions of individual members which provide valuable insights that we would not get without access to this site.  I never thought that the outperformance of the Strawman index was sustainable, purely because the index was so growth orientated and growth is not always in vogue.  "Value" plays have never featured in the index, so when the wider market rotates towards value, a growth orientated portfolio (or index) is very likely to underperform the wider market.  Just my 2c.

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