EDIT: this was meant as a reply to SpectralRider
I agree with the perspectives of Bear77 and SebastianG above, but thought I'd add some additional thoughts.
I'm a skeptical sort, so I can't help considering the possibility that the stocks the Strawman Index has held recently were decided on more through a process of groupthink rather than a consensus of individuals independently evaluating the companies. I'm pretty new here so take my view with a grain of salt, but it seems to me that there is something of a snowball effect at play here within the Strawman platform. So potentially, the recent performance of the index has in a sense been partly by chance, i.e. that the memes that got traction happened to be ones that rocketed rather than ones that didn't do so well (of which there have been plenty this year, e.g. DW8, TNT, XST, CAN, BRN, NEA, and of course NXL).
It's something I think the community needs to guard against, and I also think this will be a distinct advantage of the Premium Index - with Premium members more likely to put in the effort to properly kick the tyres on a stock before throwing it into their portfolio. And, I assume, more willing to consider "boring" holdings like big banks and miners if they make sense in the broader context of the market / economy, rather than YOLOing everything into speccies and hoping for the best.
A lot of good points made.
I'd direct members to a post i came across a few years back which discussed the inevitability of short term underperformance within longer periods opf outperformance:
Every long-term investment strategy – even the most successful strategy – will experience periods of poor performance.
This is both desirable and necessary. Periods of poor performance relative to the market create a fresh crop of opportunities; but only for those who are patient and disciplined enough to maintain a long-term perspective.
Investors that would like to try to beat the market need to come to terms with this fact. Otherwise, they will be much better off investing in an index fund.
The full post can be read here -- i think it addresses the question really well.
If I had to have a quick guess without really delving deep into the intracacies of this, my guess would be that it is related to the latest lockdowns across the country. Lockdowns have been shown to really affect small companies more than larger more established ones and a lot of the companies in the strawman index are these smaller companies. I believe we should see an uptick when most states are out of lockdown, and then an even bigger up trend when we have gotten to a level of vaccination that allows business to run close to normal again, as we had closer to the start of the year before delta kicked in strong.
Hi all,
Just looking at the strawman Index over time vs Aus overall market and noticed a strong underperformance in the last 6 month period (-9% Vs +12%).
Keen to get a discussion going around percieved reasons for this and what our learnings are moving into the second half of CY21. Is the relative ouperformance the community delivered previously sustainable longer term, or is this a mean reversion period?
Cheers.