Mujo
3 years ago

I can't seem to get access to that report on my end for some reason. At nearing a $900 million market cap there's been a lot of buy in already, the market gives plenty of opportunities and these type of stocks do tend to get hit hard in a sell off. Being what it is there will likley be more cap raisings as well which could provide an oppotunity to get set on the share price weakness that generally follows. Then again I don't think there's any harm here in waiting until there is revenue coming in the door or even approaching cash flow breakeven or you actually understand the product and the commericalisaiton implications. If the company is as good as what it markets itself to be you can still make a lot even if you're a little bit late to the story. There's a lot of crazy in markets at the moment so pays to be careful.  

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SebastianG
3 years ago

Does it actually have a product ready for commercialisation as you say?

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reddogaustin
3 years ago

@SebastianG,

Yes it does. It has a computer chip - that is its product - as simple as that. Said computer chip is placed in a customers product and programmed to do something. 

BRN had a small production run where it provided chips to its EAP or Early Access Program customers. This has been a sort of 'proof of concept' and a big success from what I understand. And from what I have read, BRN now have deals with chip makers to make the Akida chip at production level quantities. Happy to be corrected on this though!

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SebastianG
3 years ago

@reddogaustin

I will have to do some digging.  Everytime I read analysts' assessments of Brainchip, the criticism is that there is no real product or the product is not capable of being commercialised.  It is very much seen as a hype stock.   I was attracted to the narrative behind the stock about 6 months ago and did quite a bit of digging and determined it was very early in the company's cycle.  The cash burn was also seen as a big issue.  Of course, none of this is to say your thesis will ultimately be wrong, it might turn into a great company, but equally, you have to ask yourself the opportunity cost question and whether there are better places to put your money.

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reddogaustin
3 years ago

Hi mate,

I would offer that it remains not understood properly. I would have said pre-juy 2020 that there was extreme risk with no phsyical demo chips produced. But now with demo chips printed, and customers proving their use (hidden by NDA), I think the risk has reduced enough as the company now has a product.

I do agree with you (as a bias check on myself), as there are plenty of companies that had the magic and failed in the commericalisation step.

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Chagsy
3 years ago

@reddogaustin @slymeat

had a good read through of the investment thesis yesterday. Also a bit of background digging around. 
I am not ever going to be in a position whether this is going to be a success or not. Additionally, the point that it becomes clear whether the Akida chip is all its cracked up to be, will be when the announce exponential sales. At that point I suspect it will be too late from an investment point of view as the price will then reflect future earnings. 
The only point I would make regarding your valuation and the investment thesis rational is the "if we can get 2% we will be worth....1 MILLION dollars. I mean one HUNDRED million dollars! Mwuhahaha. (Sorry, just recently rewatched Austin Powers with the kids)
it was at least a change from the figure of 1% which is usually thrown around as the justification of why a company could be worth x y or z. This technique is usually a big red flag in my book. 
not saying it is in this case, but whenever I see that in the thesis it makes me instantly very very cautious. 
best of luck to all holders. It would be great to see. This sort of successful industry based out of Australia 

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reddogaustin
3 years ago

@Chagsy

I don't disagree. I often dislike company presentations that talk about grandiose TAMs and how much they are going to "capture".

However, in this situation BRN is in the space of enabling transformative technologies such as AI and IoT. These are generational technology changes and those changes will bring about immense scale - doubling or quadrupling the number of devices on the internet (hence the need for a better NBN!!). The akida chips have so many use cases that it is impossible to model the magnitude, so I choose to simplify the model by using said method of X% of TAM. Also note that those TAMs came from a google search, and those TAMs are just a guess from some stranger somewhere. 

I also see this discussion as the benefit of Strawman. I challenged your assumptions and bias with my blue sky valuation and you in turn challenge my valuation, allowing me to question and modify when I learn a consideration to add into my model.

And as you say, if/when the revenue comes rolling in, one can always buy-in then.

[edit: spelling... where is the spellchecker!]

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