Part of me is temtpted to look more at reopening stocks. However the national plan that states have "agreed" on, how likely is it that plan is executed and when?  I have no confidence on the answer to that! Having said that, it would be good to see this thread get some momentum, I am still curious to see potenital ideas based on this theme. Maybe in the future I will get some faith we that we will reopen in my lifetime!

To expand on my hesitancy about being confident this agreed plan is executed well, the key thing I hear from state premiers is they have just agreed that lockdowns are "less likely" when these vaccination targets are met. When I hear them speak I get the impression yes they have agreed to open up assuming the starting point is an extremely low number of cases in all of the states. "Opening up" for them might be that rather than lock down with 1-2 cases, they may keep things open, but when cases near 10 it is too risky so they close again. i.e. we agreed and delivered on lockdowns being less likely. I refer to the premiers outside of NSW.

Don't take this as any opinion of mine on pro lockdown or not, not meant to be a political post. I am just thinking about what is most likely from a potential investment point of view when it comes to reopening stock ideas.

Here are my thoughts:

1) Australia is about to face the most challenging stage of the pandemic. To switch from an elimination strategy to a "living with COVID" strategy is going to be painful, traumatic, and requires highly competent and responsive leadership.  It will be like trying to land a 747 in your backyard - open too fast will trigger excess deaths, and another hard lockdown.....

2) The National Plan has been developed relying on Doherty modelling.  the Doherty modelling provides a range of scenarios, and the modelling shows IMHO lockdowns, unfortunately, will inevitably continue, as will ongoing social distancing restrictions.  Don't believe the news headlines or the political spinners - they haven't read past the executive summary.  

3) The air travel businesses will continue to face disruptions for sometime - I consder ti too risky to invest in right now.  I think people will travel / holiday locally - Camplify may benefit (DISC - I HOLD).  Discretionary spending may stay elevated for longer thna expected. 

4) Companies with revenue denominated in USD will experience ongoing tailwinds. The AUD will be under pressure I think. This may drive increased interst in alternatives to FIAt, suc as crypto exchanges and investing (RAIZ).  Scarce assets will become more valuable..................Lark Distillery.

4) testing and tracing will continue, vaccinations will be a years long business opportunity - Sonic Healthcare, working from home will be more or less permanent.  Home deliveries, takeaways,  home excercising, Wotso office space will be the norm (who needs to rent office space anymore?)  

5) Longer term, allied health business, such as occupational therapists, already in short supply, will have growing demand for patients recovering from COVID related side affect.  

6) HR / OH & S Software to manage staff OH & S risk in relation to vaccinations information / contact tracing - Rightcrowd? Damstra (DISC - I HOLD)? Enterprises will need to keep track and records of staff vaccination status, and movements in many curcumstances to maintain their OH & S obligations. 

7) Disrupted learning - Yes, KME is well placed to benefit I think.  

Nice well thought out points Rapster. I like the thinking.

I do however disagree with some of the points, especially #3.

The current graph for confirmed cases in Australia versus deaths indicates that the most at risk category are people aged 60 and over. I don't believe the incumbent Federal Government would be pushing for the States to toe the line with respect to opening State borders if they hadn't done the research and modelling on the projected outcome. The push for the most vulnerable section of the population to be vaccinated early in the vaccination program, I believe, has paid dividends.

Anecdotally, living in the outback has had a profound affect on my view of freedom of movement through air travel. Our country is vast. It's very easy to forget when living on the East coast when within driving distance of friends, family and comfort, that a large amount of  Australians rely heavily on air travel as a means to travel the vast distances around our country.

There is pent up demand in this space and the reopening of borders will lead to a marked increase in air travel. 

I believe the market recognises this, as exampled by the Qantas share price surging 20% after the announcement by the Federal Government since the start of the week, even after posting a 1.8 billion dollar loss.

I do believe international travel is still some way off, but the domestic market is set to rebound in a big way.

I just watched this news grab with Alan Joyce who seems confident that International travel will recommence in December. He also points to their pent up demand data, which supports my earlier post.