I reckon Joyce is right about heaps of pent up demand for travel. As far as him being confident of international travel resuming in December I hope he is correct. However I take his comments with a grain of salt, I have heard similar comments from him that international travel can resume again in 4-5 months time continually since March last year. The premiers still have lots of power and most are on a completely different train of thought to Joyce and for that matter the national "agreed" plan.
Also on that note - which stocks to start selling based on upcoming reopening.
My highest conviction reopening stock is AIA. Fantastic asset, despite an aweful FY21, which is no fault of the management team. They recently announced they are giving stock to their full time employees to thank them for their dedication to AIA. What a fantastic initiative to get your employee's interests aligned.
My speccy reopening stock is BPT...after much umming and aahing I dipped my toes in again to BPT with a small trade this arvo. We'll see how it goes, I guess haha.
With the Federal and State Governments having agreed to a National Plan out of lockdown which occurs where 70-80% of the eligible population is vaccinated, with that target modelled to occur at the end if 2021, it appears now is the time to consider which stocks will benefit most from reopening the country.
There's buzz around KME as a reopen play. What other suggestions do people have?
I'll throw out Serko (SKO) as another. On the 4th of August, they released a market sensitive announcement with this:
"Trading Conditions Update
Trading conditions remain volatile due to the global impacts of Covid-19 and ongoing travel restrictions, particularly in the Australian market.
New Zealand domestic travel bookings have remained strong at 166% of 2019 volumes for the month of June and 137% of 2019 volumes for the month of July. However, Australian domestic travel bookings dropped from 56% of 2019 volumes in June to 35% of 2019 volumes in July due to the further tightening of inter-State travel restrictions within Australia in response to the increase in Covid-19 cases in some States.
Serko’s CEO, Mr Grafton said: “We planned for further lock-downs to occur in our core markets during the current financial year as vaccination programmes progressively roll out and we have factored these disruptions into our capital management plans. As such, we continue to target an average monthly cash burn of between $2 million and $4 million despite the persistent Australian lock-downs. We remain optimistic that Australasian travel bookings will revert to the levels seen at their peak in April 2021 once the travel restrictions in Australia lift, based on previous recovery trends.”
Disc. I hold both in my RL portfolio