Forum Topics Risks of ETFs
NewbieHK
Added 5 years ago

ETFs are still are very small component of the Australian market when compared to say the US and U.K. market. I actually like sector ETFs as they help reduce the risk of trying to choose the "one" in a sector I want to be in but, feel I do not have the expertise to choose that single potential winning stock. Combine this with my feeling that this is where significant money is going to flow from the next generation of investors (including the time poor, non interested passive investors and/or the ever growing FIRE proponents) I am happy to ensure I allocate a % of my personal portfolio to specific themes such as cyber security, gaming, asia etc where I feel the growth potential will be significant. 

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Learner
Added 5 years ago

Thank you for the Post Dustysandwich.

I have often wondered who "rents" stock to Short Sellers.When people buy a prouduct, as in investing with,and  through an entity you should expect they are working for your interest and benifit. If they loan or rent what you have entrusted them with, to another entity for the only purpose of devaluing it, what is going on ? I would not be surprised if there is the biggest Class Action in history, if this ever hits the fan.

  1. Security lending programs: did you know that the underlying shares that you own via the ETFs are being lent out to short-sellers. I haven't been able to work out the mechanics and risks fully but on the surface level, this just adds complexity to something that was supposed to be a "simple" product

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Dustysandwich
Added 5 years ago

So I'm going to go out on a limb here and start a controversial topic, as I'd really like to get other people's views on my thought process. Apologies in advance this is going to be a long one.

I just want to be clear, I am not saying ETFs are a bad product (I hold 20% of my portfolio in VAE) however I am saying that there are inherent risks, that I believe are being completely ignored or not properly considered. 

First I just want to spell out the benefits of ETFs. 

  1. Diversification: You get exposure to a group of equities which ultimately reduces volatility and provides you with average index returns. Some argue for diversification, some argue against it (I am firmly in the "diversification as a protection against ignorance" camp, however for average people or people who are not interested in the market they prefer to be ignorant and get market returns which are great as long as you know that). 
  2. Low cost and outperformance against most managed funds: I'm sure you have all seen the research that a lot of managed funds underperform the market hence the preference has been away from managed funds and into ETFs. 
  3. Low capital requirement and convenience: It is likely impossible for an individual to hold a position in 100s if not 1000s of companies and balance a fund to match the underlying index on a day-to-day basis. In addition, not sure if many people are familiar with the mechanics of an ETF but the creation and redemption mechanics but that mechanism also saves significant frictional costs such as tax. 
  4. Trading flexibility: ETFs essentially trade like a stock so you are able to go in and out of a group of stocks rather than balancing each individual stock within your portfolio.

The biggest gripe I have about ETFs is that there are very clear differences between broad market index ETFs and all other ETFs. More importantly, why I believe all ETFs except broad market index ETFs are counter-productive to long-term passive strategy. 

  • Broad market index ETFs does indeed provide you with the true diversity of stocks that people seek, where it covers all sectors however all other ETFs fundamentally preclude the "diversification" benefit as it has been narrowed down to represent a particular group of stocks (including most managed ETFs, sector ETFs etc).
  • Excluding broad market index ETFs, by definition sector/other ETFs will outperform the market of a particular time period and also underperform the market for a particular time period. Hence there is no real benefit in holding a sector ETF unless you are looking to "time" the market and pay a higher cost (generally more expensive than broad market index ETFs). This effectively runs counter to what most ETF investors want as a "set and forget" style of investing. 

Here are the other risks of ETFs IMO. 

  1. I believe the prevalence of ETFs has made the market as a whole, and individual stocks far more volatile due to the underlying mechanics of how ETFs operate. For example, let's say a widely held stock say BHP for example fell strongly, which means the ETF price is now at a premium (overvalued to Net Asset Value [NAV]) to the market. The creation cycle will kick in and cause the AP (authorised participant) to create more ETF shares and buy the group of shares in the market. All else being equal what this has done is effectively spread the losses from BHP price to other stocks making the underlying BHP shares overvalued and the rest of the market undervalued. This essentially adds to the market volatility even though all else was kept equal in the scenario. Now, in reality, many stocks can make such moves, these moves are then amplified by the number of ETFs they are held in, which creates a compounding volatility effect. Hence you see some crazy moves in share price even though nothing happened in the day for a particular stock. 
  2. Stretched PE ratios and price discovery issues. For example, two businesses that have similar earnings and growth profiles however one is included in an ETF and the other is excluded, this will create relative outperformance for the stock listed within the ETF as it will attract a larger proportion of funds. Over the long term and various individual investors and managed funds will take advantage of lower multiples, hence the gap should normalise however this may take an extended period of time which can impact the ability of the company to raise capital. 
  3. ETFs themselves are a product and not the underlying security. If you have looked at the flash crash ETFs were disproportionately impacted because when you have trading halts on multiple companies it was impossible to calculate the NAV which crashed ETF prices significantly more than the underlying securities. 
  4. Liquidity trap: Similar to above as some ETFs especially the smaller cap etfs, bond etfs, real-estate etfs, or more niche spaces have issues where the underlying security is not liquid means that there is liquidity risk. Hence if the ETF price was to dip below NAV, the AP will have a tough time selling the underlying security to balance the ETF price and the NAV. You often see bond ETFs trade at a discount to NAV because of this reason and in a crash when liquidity dries up you might be caught holding something that falls substantially more than the underlying security. 
  5. Security lending programs: did you know that the underlying shares that you own via the ETFs are being lent out to short-sellers. I haven't been able to work out the mechanics and risks fully but on the surface level, this just adds complexity to something that was supposed to be a "simple" product. 
  6. Complexity: so an ETF of ETFs such as VGHD - just read all of the risks about and compound them on top of each other. 

In saying all of the benefits for broad market index funds with minimal complexity significantly outweigh the risks (imo). 

Please feel free to tell me that I am completely wrong as I would love to hear your thoughts, however, I believe once something gets way too popular, there are risks that are often overlooked. 

DISC: Hold VAE

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reddogaustin
Added 5 years ago

Hi @Dustysandwich,

I’ll play, but note the following is meant in good spirit of the debate of ideas. I have tried to reword a few times so it sounds less antagonistic!

I agree with your listed benefits.

I disagree with both your gripes, mostly because it is all individual context dependent.

Sector-based ETFs have a value proposition for me, as diversification is all relative:

- % Aus domiciled shares vs % overseas domiciled shares.  

- % total portfolio revenue earned in Aus vs % revenue earned overseas (MENA, US, LATAM, SEA, EUR, etc)

- %ETFs vs % direct shares

- % Growth vs % Dividends

- % mining vs % tech vs % banking/finance

One’s diversification goal changes the output. My super fund (all super funds) covers the equivalent of A200 or VAS, so surely, I want NDQ or IVV for international diversification…. Except the Aus domiciled shares that I own, earn combined ~50% of their revenues overseas (e.g. NEA, APT, ALL), so I am exposed to FX and overseas market growth anyway. So a broad based ETF doesn’t add value for me. Where I don’t earn revenue is China, and China is a big economy, so something like CNEW or ASIA, as sector ETFs have value for me, because there are no China-top-100 ETFs.

Regarding sector ETFs not being set and forget. There are heaps of fad of trendy ETFs being produced, no argument there, and that is pure marketing and capitalism. Not being suckered into trends is about understanding self. But there are also sector-based ETFs that are on underlying mega trends that I would argue are set and forget, as they are trends that won’t be finished in our lifetimes. E.g. ACDC, ROBO, or HACK. However, you need to link back into point 1, does it fit the rest of your portfolio diversification and goals and personal risk tolerance etc.  

I am mixed on your risks.

Risk 1, I disagree with - I don’t see how this is any different to an active managed fund doing the same thing. I would suggest we see exacerbated falls and gains because of the ability to trade via computers being so much faster – but the same act was occurring previously, however was a ‘mystery of stockbroking’ because joe-public never saw what we see today information sharing wise.

Risk 2, I disagree, and would counter with “welcome to capitalism”. What you say is true, but for me, this is just added to my analysis considerations for buying. Is it “unfair” for some companies, perhaps? But so is life.

Risk 3, I disagree, as per risk response 1.

Risk 4, I don’t disagree, but the saying “caveat emptor” comes to mind.

Risk 5, No I didn’t know! However, see risk response 2.

Risk 6, agree, see risk repsonse 4.

Summary. I like sector-based ETFs as they offer for my individual circumstance all the positives you listed above.

Does that help your thinking? Or offer a different but useful POV?

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Remorhaz
Added 5 years ago

Security lending programs: did you know that the underlying shares that you own via the ETFs are being lent out to short-sellers. I haven't been able to work out the mechanics and risks fully but on the surface level, this just adds complexity to something that was supposed to be a "simple" product

I'm not 100% sure on this - but - don't some (many?) custodially held investments (direct shares, etc) also get loaned out by brokers? (i.e. unless you specifically indicate that you don't want your broker to loan out your shares for short selling they can and do loan them out (to improve their (the brokers) bottom line)?

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reddogaustin
Added 5 years ago

@Remorhaz

Yes I believe you are correct.

I didn't know I could 'opt out' so to speak. I'll be asking my broker!!

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reddogaustin
Added 5 years ago

@Dustysandwich

Fair points, and I can learn something here also.

I'll go and research the timing piece you mention - I could have just been lucky in my timing as you say, and have a bias a result.

You are right in being wary of mega-trends and the hype, however there are some trends that are legititmate and for those, well we are back at the start for investing - does one pick an early potential in the trend, does one pick the biggest to date, does one just use an ETF and ignore, or does one lurk on the omnipotent strawman...

I think the important part is that, as investors, we are asking questions and not blindly following.

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Solvetheriddle
Added 5 years ago

Hi Dusty

i was a PM of an ETF for 4 years, no longer, so have an independent but experienced view. some of your points have validity, but these issues can be the same for other investment vehicles. 

the main risk i see, and it is a risk for all funds in reality, is when there is significant move in the market and the EfT is repricing in a voltile period. the spread (buy/sell spread) is usually opened up then, so some risk is passed on to those investors who trade on that day. 99.9% of the time it is traded between the market maker spread , which is tight. remember the ASX sets protocol for the fund offering liquidity and spreads. in all my time that was never a problem. 

in terms of stock lending, i think you will find thta many many funds lend stock. the custodians are the actual ones who do this. no fund manager has access to physiacl stock and hasnt done for a long time, for obvious reasons. the custodians of course get a fee from the prime brokers (who broke to the hedge funds) for this. often they will reduce fees to the fund managers to borrow their stock as a quid quo pro. so we can see a situation where the PM (me) getting annoyed becasue his own stock is being used against him. however, middle office is all in favour because their job is to reduce custodial costs. but this is the same ETF or any other vehicle.

your points on liquidity are fair, but are teh saem for any investment vehicle, the cost shows up in different guises.

IMO ETF's as an investment vehicle are superior to anything that has before, especially LIC's ( i ran one of them for 5 years) and would avoid unless i get a 20-30% discount to NTA + other favourable info. managed funds/unit trusts, lack transparency and are not as easy trade etc 

hope this is of some use

 

 

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