Forum Topics Pockets are empty
Vandelay
3 years ago

When people get worked up about macro factors that may or may not result in market volatility, it reminds me of a paragraph out of Peter Lynch's "One up on wall st" (which was published in 1989! People are still worrying about the same stuff haha!) "I cant avoid hearing from various gold bugs, interest-rate disciples, federal reserve watchers, and fiscal mystics quoted in the newspapers. Thousands of experts study overbought indicators, oversold indicators, head-and-shoulder patterns, put-call ratios, the Fed's policy on money supply, foreign investment, the movement of the constellations through the heavens, and the moss on oak trees, and they cant predict markets with any useful consistency, any more than the gizzard squeezers could tell the Roman emporers when the Huns would attack."

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Summer12
3 years ago

As always i appreciate your wealth of knowledge

On this occassion i will  stick with:"days like these"

 

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Nnyck777
3 years ago

My god the sky might be falling but it's not working for my CGS entry. I have been watching this closely and it just keeps going up! The Bill Gates mention discovered and up another 7%. I might have missed the boat on this one IRL. I will see what looming Evergrande Thursday brings. It will probably be $3.00 by then. Should have bought at $2.00!!!!

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Nnyck777
3 years ago

@Slymeat hear hear. I whole heartily agree with your sentiment. It is the company we buy that we believe in the SP will follow. Wise words in the current environment. Also why I decided to keep my Strawman portfolio from 2019 rather than starting again. In hindsight I feel like I bought at the top of the market and some have declined but I truly believe in a lot of these companies still- they grow and build and my theses have not broken- except FTC maybe I am holding to that one on a wing and a prayer! 
 

love your work 

Nnyck777

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Summer12
3 years ago

As a long term Investor, i have learned that days like these present great opporunties to buy at good levels.

I  have also learned that i need to have a bigger slush fund ready to go when these opportunties present.

 

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Hackofalltrades
3 years ago

Haha, you're not wrong. Though it may still drop further. 

What is actually causing this? Or just general market volatility? 

It's definitely getting me to think about just how much I've got available when the market drops - it's interesting though, because it still may drop further! I've worked out that I like to double down on my bets hah! 

 

 

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lyndonator
3 years ago

I tend to be fully invested most of the time as well so don't really get take advantage of market pull backs or dips.

An idea I am playing with though - and it is just that, an idea, at this stage - is to use index funds as a cash proxy.

i.e I always have a bit of my porfolio in an index fund or two so if there is a market drop I could sell some of the fund(s) to buy my favourite stocks.

Obviously the fund itself will have dropped with the market - but presumbly not as much as the stock I'd want to buy in this scenario

.. this would also help with the other side of this coin whcih is "I have cash to spend but everything is too expensive". So I'd just buy the fund instead.

 

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Bear77
3 years ago

Yep - I'm another one that's mostly fully invested most of the time.  My thinking is that having cash sitting aside ready for drops and opportunities does in itself have an opportunity cost attached to it.  My thinking has been that when better opportunities present themselves, I can swap funds from good ideas into even better ideas.  That's what I was doing in March and April last year - selling good companies that had become cheap to buy other good companies that had become VERY cheap. 

There will probably come a time when I think there is far too much downside risk and not enough upside - in the market as a whole - and then I may well start cashing in my chips, but for now it's still business as usual.

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