Forum Topics AI1 AI1 Valuation Discussion
Bradbury
3 years ago

Hi @secondtake88 I use nabtrade research reports as a source on historical ratios / comparisons etc. Normally I reference source in valuation notes. I will make sure I do that in the future.

This one came from the REFINITIV report as nabtrade also offer them from several sources. They current list Software & IT Services Industry P/S average as 8.7. I also had a look at the ratios of NEXTDC, DXN, Maquarie IT and Over The Wire as a bit of a comparison. I might go back and update my valuation with a bit of reference to these comparisons once I see how they are travelling after the release of the quarterly. Also if you were interested, nabtrade currently shows the morningstar valuation at $0.258.

As part of the placement did they present any forecasts or targets beyond the Tier III design and construction certification timeline?

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secondtake88
3 years ago

Hi Bradbury, thanks for that. There were no written forecasts in the terms sheet other than "DC Two’s Bibra Lake data centre is set to become fully OPERATIONAL IN 4Q21, WITH COMPLETION OF THE DATA CENTRE BECOMING A MAJOR VALUE INFLECTION POINT AND WILL TRANSFORM THE d¢2 BUSINESS." (please excuse copy & paste italics). In discussions, I was told that revenue per rack will vary depending on how much power a customer requires and any reseller discounts, and that utilisation will obviously depend on demand but that signs are good.

I calculated prior to writing a cheque that if they they lease out 50 racks for 8 months this financial year at a 20% discount to the cited $1,600 p/m co-location industry average, Bibra Lake will add $500k to revenue, which at 6x P/S is circa 36c, almost exactly in line with your numbers. Thats ignoring their main focus - cloud services and the much higher rates that attracts; the Collie project; the modular business; and the potential corporate appeal. There is a free 1 for 2 option attached (30c, 2 years) to my 15c shares as well. Its great for sophisticates, it's dilutory for any impatient existing holders, but it's good for the company. I'd think it this deal due to new Chairman Shane Wee (whom I rate highly) putting his foot down.

 

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