Forum Topics WES WES Benefits of direct investing over ETFs and Managed Funds
gummy
Added 5 years ago

I'm a relatively new investor 7 years young started in 2013 and made lots of mistakes but kept going so doing OK return wise with a lot of bumps along the way.

I would love comments on the following learnings and interpretation of my learning to date:

I think I heard Andrew (strawman) quote on a podcast with Scott Phillips in passing that DIY investors are ahead of Managed Funds (not sure if this is ETFs also) due to having longer holding periods and quoted that the average holding period of a managed fund is 10 months. Would this be true Andrew not sure if I heard correctly but understand it is time in the market that produces returns not timing the market. This has also been my experience in practice!

I'm assuming as ETFs adjust continually to the market they are also adopting a shorter holding period than if you held the shares directly but as they merely adjust to the market percentages of companies in the index followed by the ETF for example ASX all ords these movements would be less than a managed fund so the holding periods on average longer. Would I be correct in this thinking?

The main benefits of managed ETFs and Managed Funds are the expertise of the portfolio manager and diversification benefits.

So assume this is more important to a new investor starting with a lower sum to invest so unable to diversify and also lacking knowledge.

Modern Portfolio theory states that the benefits of diversification reduce risk but due to the way funds are managed do we lose return due to the more frequent trading?

Does the adoption of some managed funds or ETFs lesson risk and increase returns vs having a diversified portfolio directly in many areas using DIY investment advice than just adopting a better temperament in investing by humbly taking the winnners and the losers currently my approach? Getting better at it the more losers and winners I experience...

Would like to know members views on the benefits of managed funds which are market as being long term investors (is there such a thing in reality when inflows and outflows of funds govern some buying and selling) vs managed funds which are silent on their investment approach vs ETFs as to which would have the most long term approach and holding periods.

My view at the moment is to have a few ETFs in the different areas I wish to invest in but do not have the time or expertise to cover but could change in favour of managed funds if my concern of investment timeframe is unfounded or if both ETFs and Managed Funds present the same problem.

Would appreciate comments on any or all of above to add to my learning and confirm or correct my understanding.

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Noddy74
Added 5 years ago

You bring up a few points there Gummy. From my perspective there's a few key advantages we can leverage compared to a typical managed fund.

First is size. Most of the fund money gets invested in companies with at least a billion dollar market cap. Microcap funds have more flexibility but even so they still have limitations and the maths explains why. Some microcap funds can grow a FUM to $500m, but lets say I'm a relatively small one of just $50m FUM. And let's pretend I didn't have rules around investing in companies with average daily volume less than a certain level and my target had a really big free float (both are big assumptions that would further reduce the investing universe of most microcap fund managers). Let's say the two rules I did have was that I didn't want to own more than 4% of any given company and I didn't want a starting position of more than 5% of my FUM. That would mean the minimum Market Cap of companies in my investment universe is $62.5m ($50m FUM x 5% max starting position = $2.5m initial ownership divided by 4% max company ownership). If they can't buy them they're not going to spend time looking at them so as private investors we've got a whole lot of companies at the small end to ourselves. When I say ourselves I mean go over to Hot Copper and read most of the commentary on there - they're potentially on the other side of the transaction. Doing so generally gives me greater sense of confidence as to who is the greater fool.

Second is concentration. Diversification reduces risk but it also caps performance. In the growth stage of your portfolio, if you have time to dedicate to the market, diversification is not necessarily your friend. I noticed Wini's new Fund allows for a position to grow to up to 20% of the portfolio - that's pretty unusual for a fund manager, typically they're a lot less. David Gardiner (Motley Fool co-founder) has a concept of finding your sleep number. Your sleep number is the percentage of your portfolio you are comfortable to have in a single holding (and still sleep at night). His sleep number is at least 85 because at one stage his AOL position grew to be 85% of his portfolio. Evidently my sleep number is at least 20 because that's the percentage of my portfolio in my largest real life position. It's grown to be that but I'm not selling any while the thesis is intact.

The third advantage is herding. Many fund managers, particularly the bigger ones, end up as index huggers with maybe the odd position that gets them outperformance one year in three. They know that their members aren't likely to leave in droves if they materially match the market and when their peers are doing the same they're materially matching their peers too. Whereas we are not interested in holding the same as everyone else and matching the market. We'd buy an ETF if that was the go. Incentives for a lot of fund managers drive herding, incentives for us drive the opposite. And you know what Charlie Munger says about incentives and outcomes...

So basically given I have time to devote to the market and for the reasons above I'm pro-DIY but I do track my performance against a few micro cap fund managers to keep myself honest. ETFs are bit different. Their diversification is often cited as a strength. I think eventually too much diversification can be a bad thing but I like them from the perspective of getting access to particular market (let's say the U.S.) or thematic (e.g. Robotics, Batteries, Crypto etc.) that would otherwise be hard to do.

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