Forum Topics MFG MFG AFR article
Adamsmith
Added 4 years ago

I have held MFG for a few years. However, In summary I do think these factors contributed to their underperformance at least from retail perspective:

There strategy around stocks like Alibaba and Tencent whilst sound, clearly underestimated their risks. They are companies registered as depositary receipts in Cayman islands with the "promise" of recognition of their parent companies accounts. How is an auditor supposed to have access to the same information as they do have with an American equivalent ?

The disappearance of Jack Ma and the botched IPO of antpay

The rise of ETFs, being relatively low cost options, Magellan LICs trading at sustained discounts to their NAV. They have tried to ameliorate this by creating closed class unit however I believe their fees will have to drop.

The gossip channels around Brett and Hamish, Hamish's wife, his 3 month vacation in Greece, St James place and minimal/reactive explanations of these concerns lead me to be concerned about the next year or so.

I have attended their investor presentations of the last few years and listen to their podcast and whilst they are entertaining and worth listening their explanations sometimes border on hubris for example their when they discuss epidemiology/virology.

We all wait for the adequacy of the Monday announcement.

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Rick
Added 4 years ago

Todays AFR article ‘Day of Reckoning for Magellan’s Hamish Douglass’ was rather scathing of Magellan’s recent underperformance. However, the article went on to include co-founder Chris Mackay’s viewpoint on Magellan and Hamish Douglass:

“Chris Mackay, the Magellan co-founder who for years has let Douglass run the show after stepping back amid rumours of a rift, was at Magellan’s Christmas drinks in Sydney’s Botanical Gardens on Thursday night. And, rarely, Mackay has spoken publicly about his support for the company and Douglass.

“Many underestimate the quality, resilience and breadth of Magellan’s business, their growth potential and the first-rate capabilities and determination of the teams, including Hamish and [interim CEO] Kirsten Morton,” he told AFR Weekend.

“When market cycles inevitably change, Magellan’s client-first focus should be more valuable.”

Disc: shares held IRL

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Solvetheriddle
Added 4 years ago

Hi All

Re MFG watch the flows from now on. that si the real risk, flows usually follow performance with a lag. MFG need to stem this flow, to state the obvious, before negative operating leverage becomes a big issue.

flows have been negative, which is bad, but have not been horrendous so far. MFG are a first class marketing machine, thsi will be a big test for them.

i have bought a few recently, as a div play, so a backhanded compliment i suppose. i am watching the flows esp retail-high margin


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ArrowTrades
Added 4 years ago

I agree people are making bit too much of it and if this were an LIC where your only exposure was to their funds holdings I would be tempted to buy as the market threw it out.

However being a management business you have direct exposure to investors acting irrationally and withdrawing their money via outflows. Unlike other plays this is not the sort of thing I would buy while sentiment is bad.

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