wishkey
Reading a note put out by the good guys at Ophir and they quoted Lynch, which I thought was very apropos to global markets currently:
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
Rapstar
FOMC Meeting Conference
- Accelerating tapering, which will finish in March, assuming it goes to plan.
- $6 Trillion of stimulus is planned to be removed next year in the US - That is a big drag if there ever was one.
- Flagged the Fed is planning a series of interest rate rises in 2022.
- When asked what the Fed will do if the equity market or economy begins to tank, Jerome Powell said: WE WILL CHANGE COURSE AS IS NECESSARY - the tapering / interest rate rise plan is not set in stone.
The markets loved the last point, with high beta stocks recovering after the press conference.
Summing up, the Fed has announced tightening, but will only continue with this tightening if the market doesn't tank. If it shows signs of weakness, they will reverse course.
I would say the Fed has allayed market fears for a few months..................
Solvetheriddle
BTD has worked so often it is on autopilot for many. will it work this time? depends if the Fed is serious or not this time
bjbart
Has anyone else been taking advantage of the sell down in the US recently?
Here are the companies I have bought or added to, which I think are either great companies and/or potential multi baggers:
SMTI
PLTR
SOFI
EAST
NEPH
Rapstar
Hi Arrowtrades,
If you are referring to me. Yes. I am at 35% cash in the real world. It has been one heck of a scramble for me to get there over the past week, but I have concentrated my trimming on high-beta names such as $NVX - which I have exited entirely now. So, I have more cash in the real world than my straw portfolio - Closing prices fell below what I sold out of $NVX at, so is still in my straw P/F.
I have been a bottom up investor for the past 6 or so years, and it has worked well for me up until now. Macro risk wasn't part of my methodology as a long term investor. But I think this is the wrong way to go looking ahead, as we hit the business end of the 4th turning. I have began subscribing to 42Macro - Darius has a unique macro methodology, which allows him to adjust his outlook on a daily basis.
The US is at a similar stage Brazil was at 6-8 months ago. Although not directly comparable, Brazilian interest rates have probably peaked and will fall from here on in. I have my eye on a Brazilian business, $STNE (similar to Square Inc.), that took a hammering over the past 6 months. I have attached an extract from Darius's work below, showing that he expects US & Australia to head into a deflationary environment in 2022 - An environemnt that is BAD for Equities and crypto. 