Lots of fuel for the fire there @lyndonator !

What a great book.

I think it's been shared here previously, but there's also an animated version of the core ideas on YouTube:

https://youtu.be/jk_HWmmwiAs?si=QV79xwJNqdl07cAB

Yeah, she has a great way of distilling complex systems into an easier to understand chunks.

The odds on a Trump presidency are looking increasingly likely. Without going into all the other thousands of reasons why this is a less than desirable outcome, one ought to give serious consideration as to what it would do for the US dollar.

There is a good chance the “money printer goes Brrr” that is currently in operation, would go into overdrive.He might even be able to get a patsy as head of the Fed.

Working through what that will do to various asset classes is a sobering process. The left field event could be a collapse in other Central Banks buying and/or holding Treasuries. Seeing what that does to a Balanced or Conservative Super portfolio is terrifying.

It’s causing me a bit of angst at the moment as I am naturally moving more towards fixed interest as I head towards retirement.

Maybe some more gold and BTC exposure ????‍????

Reference Gold and BTC exposure. I've been thinking about the US dollar impacts when the US hits a point when it must start paying back its debt. Does the US dollar just devalue reference all other currencies therefore Gold/BTC in AUD terms is relatively stable or due to the strength of the US dollar as a global reserve currency will the value of Gold/BTC in US dollars increase significantly therefore the same occurs in AUD with the added boost of a strong AUD reference USD? Is the play just to own AUD/GBP/EUR/JPN related investments to keep clear of the potential US dollar issues.

From the US treasury website:

US federal government is spending 38% more than it earns..... Without the money printer this can't go on forever (surely??) and I can't see how it will not end without significant pain. However, as we know the can will be kicked down the road for as long as possible. I'm current reading an interesting book called "Why Nations Fail". I am about a quarter through, but the thesis seems to be strong open, free and fair institutions of countries creates prosperity for all and nations that don't have these strong institutions are bound to fail. To me it seems the US institutions are becoming weaker and a Trump presidency won't help that at all. Whatever happens, you can't really act until something is actually happening, then it's probably too late anyways...

@Dominator

i can’t answer those questions. I wish I knew.

its difficult to work out when confidence in the USD might start to slide- it could be decades. One could make a case that a Trump Presidency and populist inflationary policies could be the catalyst. And that of course is only a few months away.

I don’t think the entire “nation “ will fail but the current monetary system may need to be re-designed. Gold standard 2.0? BTC? Financial repression on a grand scale?

Morgan Housels “Same as ever”.

Best book I’ve read for a long time.

Quite a tonic for the state of the world, especially the us election.

Recommended.

Interesting, though she does nothing to address the bitcoin cons in the video though which annoys me like:

How Bitcoin won't just come very concentrated in the hands of a very few like it already is now. The wealth inequality would be magnitudes greater than the system we have now and the wealth would concentrate in fewer and fewer hands without inflation.

It's essentially a return to the gold standard which would inhibit credit growth and consequently the above average economic growth which we have all enjoyed post WWII.

I'll read the book and hopefully she addresses it.

Great thread. Some of my favourite non-investing books:

Sapiens - Harari

Influence - Cialdini

The Book Thief - Zusak

We Need to Talk About Kevin - Shriver

A Thousand Splendid Suns or The Kite Runner - Hosseini

The Road - McCarthy

Life of Pi - Martel

Atonement - McEwan

Alias Grace or The Handmaids Tale - Atwood

Currently have The Body Keeps the Score, Homo Deus, Noise and Emotional Intelligence sitting under the Christmas tree for me.

A good list:

I really enjoyed The Book Thief and Life of Pie. The Handmaids Tale was particularly disturbing a book you don’t forget.

I would add anything (Oliver Sacks) Rivers of Consciousness, The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat.

An Ordinary Day (Leigh Sales)- a brilliant book if you have been through hardships and a great gift for anyone who is going through a difficult time.

When Breath Becomes Air (Paul Kalanthi)- an insightful look at career and life from a terminally ill Neurosurgeon.

The Psychopath Test (Jon Ronson)- because it is damn funny.

The Double X Economy (Linda Scott) - Gender inequalities in the global economy a must read.

I just finished Frankenstein (Mary Shelley) - beautifully written also incredibly disturbing and haunting. It was even better to learn that this story was shaped as part of a writing contest when a pile of writers and friends stayed at a villa near Lake Geneva (other companions included Lord Byron). Mary Shelley won with her story.

Last book I read:

Where the Crawdads Sing (Delia Owns) a book of determination and self reliance and strength of character.

I won’t go on.

So many books to read so little time.

I thought I would mention one I read very recently from Ray Dalio. It has investment implications so you can draw your conclusions from that perspective. However some might see it as less of an investment book and more look at it from the perspective of history and what may lie ahead for living standards in various countries in the future.

I refer to - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail.

Note this is different from his book Principles Life and Work (I did not particularly like this one).

I really liked Sapiens too.

I think Michael Shermer says it well:

Humans are, by nature, pattern-seeking, story-telling animals, and we are quite adept at telling stories about patterns whether they exist or not.

Yuval Harari's other books are very good too; Homo Deus & 21 Lessons for the 21st Century