Forum Topics Stop Losses
Hands
3 years ago

Thank you everyone. Very nice to get some real life experience.

@Bear - Extremely insightful as always. I think you deserve an award.

What I'm hearing is that Stop loss does not pair well with long term investing, especially in a volatile small cap space - I nod to that.

But I'm wondering whether anyone uses it on ASX100/200 large caps as things 'trend' up or down. I'm particularly looking at stocks like MQG and RIO and REA whose share price is always a bit of mystery to me as sentiment often outweighs reasonableness I think.

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Hi

I think this goes to the trading vrs investing strategies, i found stop losses useful for trading and counterproductive for investing. Investing, in my case, is in mature growth stocks like REA/MQg etc (both owned) I have valuation based buy and sell prices and follow those. trading for me is in lower quality stocks, that have wider stock price variability so lends themselves to stop loss trading. ie, they have enough potential upside in them allowing for getting in and out. also i am prepared to average down only in quality.

hope this makes some sense :)








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Bear77
3 years ago

As I said, I do not use stop losses at all, well, I think probably twice in the last 35 years, but my thoughts on that specific question are: If the stocks are trending well, as MQG certainly seems to do, you would want to be "in" them when the trend is up, and on the sidelines when the trend is down, as long as those trends are for decent periods of time, like months. Not worth getting in and out every time they move a little bit, but I certainly like to jump on a quality company when they've been in a decent downtrend and they turn up and start trending the other way. Not so keen when they look like they have already had a really good run and might be nearing the end of it. In that respect, I don't know that stop losses would be very useful because the trends don't tend to end just because they've hit a certain price point or a certain percentage above or below another milestone price point. I know that technical analysts don't see it that way. They tend to think that trends are based on mathematical equations related to previous highs and lows, but that's rubbish because when a company is in a downtrend and releases some really positive news, the share price will usually react positively immediately regardless of those technical indicators or technical theories. Likewise with significant bad news when they're in an uptrend, it usually breaks the trend. So - once again - I'm not going to base my decisions on price points, which is what stop losses do. I want to engage my human brain and look at the chart to pick the trend, look at the fundamentals, look at the market sentiment, look at the company guidance, see how that all fits within my investment thesis, and make some predictions about what I think is most likely to happen in the near term, mid term and longer term based on all of that and anything else I know about that company and that industry at this point in time. Even with many more eyes on them, large caps still tend to overshoot in both directions on the back of sentiment. They just probably do it less in percentage terms than microcaps. Taking all of that into account, I still can't see where stop losses are going to add any value.

One area where stop losses MIGHT work, and this is a pretty thin argument to be honest, is with larger companies that you regard as set and forget investments, and you don't intend to follow them much at all. You could be sitting on a 50% gain and lock in a stop loss that is 20% above your purchase price, and roughly 30% below the current price, as a quick example, and then if they fall, you should still come out of it with a reasonable profit. But I'm not tempted to do that either, because I don't really regard any company as a set and forget investment these days. Everything is too dynamic and fast moving for that. Also, as SolvetheRiddle says, that's really trading, not investing. Investing for me is staying with an investment as long as your investment thesis remains solid, regardless of what the share price does, and as long as you don't find something even better to switch that money into, so only selling to move into a better investment (in my opinion) or because the investment thesis is broken (or severely impaired). But different strokes for different folks. There are many different approaches to investing.

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Bear77
3 years ago

I hardly ever use stop losses, however, FWIW, my initial thoughts are that when volatility is at its worst, stop losses could easily prove to be detrimental to performance, because they can cause you to sell out of positions because the share price has spiked down intraday, and that SP fall could be reversed the same day or the next day. To give one example, Karl Siegling's Cadence Capital (CDM) had an investment process that worked very well for many years, and part of that process was to scale into positions using an averaging up process, and only buy when the share price was rising, and to sell out immediately if the share price dropped by a significant percentage. It is that percentage - the number you choose - i.e. 10%, 20%, 25%, 30%, that makes all the difference of course. That process worked very well, until we started to get increased volatility during 2016 and again from around mid-2018 through to the Covid-19-lows in March 2020. In one of his newsletters at the time, Karl said the volatility was shaking him out of good positions that were finishing the month significantly higher than his exit prices, resulting in significant underperformance by CDM.

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Basically, his stop losses were set at a level below his buy prices that worked well in "normal" market conditions but when prices started "whipsawing" up and down intraday and daily, those stop losses got hit way too quickly and too often. At first Karl's game plan was to stick to his previous trading rules because he felt that the increased volatility was a short-term phenomenon and that things would soon go back to the way they were before and he would start outperforming again. Prior to 2016 CDM was trading at a huge premium to NTA of 30%+ regularly and always at least 20% for a number of years. During that period in 2016 and in the 2018-2020 period highlighted above, the premium came out of the CDM share price, at the same time as his NTA was falling, resulting in a SP fall that was way worse than his actual performance, which of course wasn't stellar. During 2019 and 2020 CDM was actually trading at a discount to their NTA because of that relative underperformance and because he was reducing his dividends on the back of reduced profits.

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CDM had been a dependable income stock, much like WAM Capital (ASX:WAM, the flagship fund in the Wilson Asset Management stable of LICs), and when the dividends fell, those income investors moved their money elsewhere. This also contributed to the SP decline, which, as I said, was far worse than Karl's actual performance with the CDM portfolio. There were other reasons, such as sticking stubbornly to one particular company that has been known by various names, including Melbourne IT and ARQ Group as its SP kept falling, which went against his own trading rules, but the use of stop losses that were set too tightly was a major contributing factor in Cadence Capital's relative underperformance during those periods. Karl's flying again now, and CDM is doing well, but he's changed his strategy now and he's giving his investments a lot more rope, and that's one of the reasons why his performance has improved.

In summary, stop losses can be beneficial, but during periods of increased volatility they can actually work against you if they are set too close to the prevailing SP, simply because volatility will cause the SP to whipsaw around and your stop losses will trigger as part of that everyday volatility.

My own reasoning for NOT using stop losses is that I want to make all of my investment decisions based on fundamentals, i.e. how the investment is tracking against my investment thesis for that company, NOT based on what their share price is doing. That's my 2c, FWIW.

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Alpha18
3 years ago

I never use stop losses. As an investor I think it’s important to seperate business performance from share price. If you’re using stop losses, you’re simply not doing that. I only sell a business when my thesis is broken, making the reason for my investment no longer valid. As soon as price becomes the focus, particularly in the short term I think that’s not a great way to go about it.

This is ofcourse different for a different style but doesn’t work for long term investing in my view.

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Hands
3 years ago

I've never really ever thought about using stop losses but I was just thinking that in this market volatility it might be useful. But now that more trading companies are offering this functionality without extra cost, I wondered what I'm truly going to experience if half the market is participating in 'automated trading'. It's going to be a bunch of bots trading with another bunch of bots. Seems very scary.

Any advice / observations from our seasoned trekkers?

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Rocket6
3 years ago

@Hands, I largely agree with Bear's position.

I don't consider myself a 'seasoned trekker' by any means, but my take is - it all comes back to the companies you own and the reason you are invested. In my position, I want to have done my research, know the company well and have a fair idea of what I think its worth. With that in mind, I will never set stop losses because it may well be that I sell at what I personally consider a really attractive price. In fact I tend to hold the opposite position to stop losses - when an investor might look to implement one, I am more likely to issue a buy order (relevant to the context, of course). This may be when investors are panicking and there is 'blood on the streets'. I think the latter in particular is the very reason why I think they are actually a bad idea for the majority of long term investors - I don't want to be selling when there is widespread fear, there is a good chance I am looking to do the opposite.

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