Thank you everyone. Very nice to get some real life experience.
@Bear - Extremely insightful as always. I think you deserve an award.
What I'm hearing is that Stop loss does not pair well with long term investing, especially in a volatile small cap space - I nod to that.
But I'm wondering whether anyone uses it on ASX100/200 large caps as things 'trend' up or down. I'm particularly looking at stocks like MQG and RIO and REA whose share price is always a bit of mystery to me as sentiment often outweighs reasonableness I think.
I hardly ever use stop losses, however, FWIW, my initial thoughts are that when volatility is at its worst, stop losses could easily prove to be detrimental to performance, because they can cause you to sell out of positions because the share price has spiked down intraday, and that SP fall could be reversed the same day or the next day. To give one example, Karl Siegling's Cadence Capital (CDM) had an investment process that worked very well for many years, and part of that process was to scale into positions using an averaging up process, and only buy when the share price was rising, and to sell out immediately if the share price dropped by a significant percentage. It is that percentage - the number you choose - i.e. 10%, 20%, 25%, 30%, that makes all the difference of course. That process worked very well, until we started to get increased volatility during 2016 and again from around mid-2018 through to the Covid-19-lows in March 2020. In one of his newsletters at the time, Karl said the volatility was shaking him out of good positions that were finishing the month significantly higher than his exit prices, resulting in significant underperformance by CDM.
Basically, his stop losses were set at a level below his buy prices that worked well in "normal" market conditions but when prices started "whipsawing" up and down intraday and daily, those stop losses got hit way too quickly and too often. At first Karl's game plan was to stick to his previous trading rules because he felt that the increased volatility was a short-term phenomenon and that things would soon go back to the way they were before and he would start outperforming again. Prior to 2016 CDM was trading at a huge premium to NTA of 30%+ regularly and always at least 20% for a number of years. During that period in 2016 and in the 2018-2020 period highlighted above, the premium came out of the CDM share price, at the same time as his NTA was falling, resulting in a SP fall that was way worse than his actual performance, which of course wasn't stellar. During 2019 and 2020 CDM was actually trading at a discount to their NTA because of that relative underperformance and because he was reducing his dividends on the back of reduced profits.
CDM had been a dependable income stock, much like WAM Capital (ASX:WAM, the flagship fund in the Wilson Asset Management stable of LICs), and when the dividends fell, those income investors moved their money elsewhere. This also contributed to the SP decline, which, as I said, was far worse than Karl's actual performance with the CDM portfolio. There were other reasons, such as sticking stubbornly to one particular company that has been known by various names, including Melbourne IT and ARQ Group as its SP kept falling, which went against his own trading rules, but the use of stop losses that were set too tightly was a major contributing factor in Cadence Capital's relative underperformance during those periods. Karl's flying again now, and CDM is doing well, but he's changed his strategy now and he's giving his investments a lot more rope, and that's one of the reasons why his performance has improved.
In summary, stop losses can be beneficial, but during periods of increased volatility they can actually work against you if they are set too close to the prevailing SP, simply because volatility will cause the SP to whipsaw around and your stop losses will trigger as part of that everyday volatility.
My own reasoning for NOT using stop losses is that I want to make all of my investment decisions based on fundamentals, i.e. how the investment is tracking against my investment thesis for that company, NOT based on what their share price is doing. That's my 2c, FWIW.
I've never really ever thought about using stop losses but I was just thinking that in this market volatility it might be useful. But now that more trading companies are offering this functionality without extra cost, I wondered what I'm truly going to experience if half the market is participating in 'automated trading'. It's going to be a bunch of bots trading with another bunch of bots. Seems very scary.
Any advice / observations from our seasoned trekkers?