28 Aug 2024 ..Just In
The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to July 2024, down from 3.8 per cent in June, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The most significant contributors to the annual rise were Housing (+4.0 per cent), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.8 per cent), Alcohol and tobacco (+7.2 per cent), and Transport (+3.4 per cent).
Leigh Merrington, ABS acting head of prices statistics, said: “CPI inflation is often impacted by items with volatile price changes like in Automotive fuel, Fruit and vegetables, and Holiday travel. It can be helpful to exclude these items from the headline CPI to see underlying inflation, which was 3.7 per cent in July, down from 4.0 per cent in June."
Media notes
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- For more details on when the Federal, State and Territory electricity rebates will start and finish see the monthly CPI indicator release for July.
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Interest Rate - Countries - List (tradingeconomics.com)
Japan BOJ recently increased rates after a long hiatus
USA Sept 2024 high expectations of a rate cut.
Top 10 Countries Most in Debt to the IMF (visualcapitalist.com)
US Stocks Surge as Powell Speaks
- United States Stock Market
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose more than 1% recovering from earlier losses while the Dow Jones extended gains to almost 500 points as investors appeared to interpret the recent statement from the Fed Chair as less hawkish than anticipated. The Federal Reserve held its funds rate unchanged and acknowledged the lack of progress in tackling inflation, as largely expected. Still, during the press conference Powell said that while the central bank is attentive to inflation risks, it is “unlikely” for the next move to be a hike. On the corporate front, CVS and Starbucks both plummeted by over 17% following the release of pessimistic results. Additionally, the chip sector underperformed with a 4% slide for Nvidia, pressured by AMD's lackluster forecast for AI chip sales and Super Micro Computer's Q3 revenue falling short of expectations.
- 36 minutes ago
USA Index:
January Monthly data shows inflation is running at 2.7% 3-month annualised. Looking ahead, March and April 2023 were bad months, meaning March / April 2024 data should show inflation decelerating through these months.
Inflation excluding volatile items, is looking really good, and is running at 1.3% 3-month annualised. Interestingly, February and March 2023 were bad months, so February / March 2024 data should show inflation decelerating through these months.
This gives room for the RBA to cut in the coming months....We are in an environment of falling inflation and positive growth - goldilocks.....Positive for equities (and $BTC).
Some charts:
CPI - Showing disinflation trend
"core" CPI -
Latest SEEK data indicating that the wages contribution to inflation might also be cooling - which is good, as this is a key driver of services inflation.
Also, private sector capex is ticking up - good for GDP and productivity.
Retail sails recovered from December dip (Xmas buying pulled forward into November promotions?), but still "soggy".
Overall, economy looks in reasonable health given we are now in restrictive monetary policy. With inflation cooling, you'd think RBA conversation likely to start addressing when to ease. Jim Chalmers this morning talking about wanting to start positioning the economy for growth.
The G20 below:
Australia sits at 4.35% M. Bullock prancers around (name -say)
Japan loves the lower for -ever /longer theory at -0.1%
Australia Holds Cash Rate at 4.35%The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its cash rates at 4.35% during its final meeting of the year, as widely expected. Tuesday's move was in line with market expectations, allowing the central bank under the leadership of Governor Michele Bullock to assess the impact of previous rate hikes. Bullock last month cautioned that inflation was increasingly driven by excessive demand at home rather than supply shocks from abroad. The board said it was aware that progress in bringing inflation back to the goal of 2 to 3% was slower than earlier forecast, with underlying inflation higher than expected amid rising services costs. Policymakers reiterated that whether further tightening is needed will depend upon the data and the assessment of risks. The committee added that it will closely monitor the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labor market. The central bank also kept unchanged the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%. less
We fan the inflation (will have to lock us up again - Dan!!!)
Keep away from Salons get the hair high-lights done every 2nd month. The nails may have to suffer ..maybe paint-up every 2nd nail!!!