Forum Topics February market behaviour
lankypom
3 years ago

I don't know how to make sense of market reactions to earnings results in the past month. Most of the companies in my RL portfolio have reported good to very good results, but most were marked down by the market. The only exception is Block (SQ2), who have suddenly become a market darling for no apparent reason

I get it that the focus has moved to profits rather than revenues, and that high growth companies with little or no profit are now out of favour, but very few companies in my RL portfolio fit that profile - PNV and JAN, I'm looking at you.

After a horrible January (RL portfolio down 9.7%), February was a small improvement, 'only' down 5.9%. Compared with a year ago I am 'only' down 11%, but as we know the markets really took off last year, and compared to my all time high in August '21 I am down nearly 19%. Ouch! It is certainly true that we feel a loss more than we feel a gain.

Thank goodness I am a devout long term investor, and I have continuing confidence in the companies I own. It also helps that I have investments in the two Lakehouse Funds - which have the same long-term focus - to use as a yardstick against my own stock picking prowess, or lack of it. Their small cap fund was down nearly 13% in February, and global growth fund was down nearly 10%, so it is a small crumb of comfort that I have outperformed them.


23

Hands
3 years ago

Just proposing a theory .... selling is caused by a whole lot of automated stop loss trades.

Positive announcement pops prices up, triggers the setting of a higher stop loss amount (for those setting %gains). The minute somebody sells out below that, we have an automatic stop loss trade to the downside.... which in turn begets more stop loss trades as each lower price gets triggered. End result 8-10% down on the day for a positive announcement.

11