I have been reading the recent straws by @Rapstar about GrainCorp and thought I should throw in my twenty cents worth!
Before specialising in sustainable agriculture and farming best management practice, I had a family farming business growing crops and raising cattle on the western Darling Downs in Queensland.
GrainCorp is a cyclical business highly reliant on the throughput of grain. Grain production in Australia is highly variable and ‘seasonal conditions remain the most important influence on the variability of agricultural production and prices from year to year’ (page 30 https://daff.ent.sirsidynix.net.au/client/en_AU/search/asset/1033304/0)
This graph shows Australian wheat production, 2010-11 to 2026-2027. You can see the current level in comparison to history and the forecasts.
If I were thinking about investing in GrainCorp (and I’m not at this point) I would be referring to the ABARES reports and the BOM long term rainfall data, including the climate modelling which many good farm businesses use to plan their future cropping programs. See page 19 in the ABARES report https://daff.ent.sirsidynix.net.au/client/en_AU/search/asset/1033304/0
cheers
Rick
To add to my prior straw, it would appear that we are likely to see La Niña probabilities flatten and El Niño probabilities increasing. La Niña brings wet seasons to eastern Australia and El Niño brings the droughts (something I am far too familiar with from my farming experience!). Something to watch if you are looking ahead as a GrainCorp shareholder.
Page 19 https://daff.ent.sirsidynix.net.au/client/en_AU/search/asset/1033304/0