Hey Rapster,

I think you are right that Russia is trying to destroy Ukraine's economy for the long term. What I wonder is whether they are actually able to succeed/sustain this in the long term.

They seem to be launching a desperate attack at the moment that in my judgement won't succeed as it isn't well prepared. In the meantime, the West actually seems like it has started shovelling real arms into Ukraine.

Thinking it through though, this probably won't matter much in the near term.

This podcast was pretty informative (and is generally). https://open.spotify.com/episode/7gssKHlBNUtVavbH1VPCp4?si=41e46465cc634600

What are some grain stocks you are aware of globally? (Particularly in the US I guess?)

A valid concern was raised regarding Graincorp's exposure to Ukraine grain production. Having a deeper look at the source of GNC's grain sales, the FY 21 results presentation reported that 66% of contracted grain sales were sourced from the East Coast of Australia (ECA) (6.7 MT), with the remainder sourced internationally from North America and Ukraine. The international sales (3.4 MT) was not broken down, but I gather the most of this is derived from Canada (Grains Connect Canada - 100% owned by Graincorp) and the US.

Given the ECA grain crop will be 6% above last years harvest, ECA exports should more than offset the likelihood of Ukraine exports going to zero.

Also, Graincorp's processing business will be unaffected by the Ukraine conflict, with oilseeds sourced locally.

DISC - HELD