Forum Topics Good Books
Remorhaz
a month ago

Morningstar (Investor/Premium) just published "12 of the best investing books of all time"

I'm unsure if it's also available outside the paywall (yet) so ...


12 of the best investing books of all time


There are investment classics on the list as well as some that you may have never heard of.

Reading is an investor’s best friend. Don’t believe me? Here are some of the world’s greatest investors on the subject:

“Never stop reading. History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme.” - Seth Klarman

"I have learned more from reading than from formal education." - Roy Neuberger

"I don’t think you can get to be a really good investor over a broad range without doing a massive amount of reading." - Charlie Munger

“Read 500 pages like this every week ... That's how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will do it.” - Warren Buffett

“I’ve found no substitution for constant reading to immerse myself in the flow of information that eventually results in ideas.” - Thomas Gaynor

"I have always found it much better just to sit and do your own reading. When I talked to people it would muddy my thinking. I was much more successful just sitting back, reading, and figuring things out." - Jim Rogers

Picking the best investing books of all time is a daunting task. I’m an avid reader and have read at least 500 books on markets. Inevitably, the list below is subjective and may change in the years to come.

1. ‘Supermoney’ by Adam Smith


Adam Smith, a pseudonym for George Goodman, writes of the ups and downs in markets during the 1960s and 1970s with wit, wisdom, and brilliant humour. What is supermoney? It’s profits, washed through markets. You either have it or you don’t. Smith explains why the green stuff in your pocket isn’t real money, and why the rich just get richer. 

The themes that Smith writes of are as relevant today as they were then. The book also introduces, perhaps for the first time, a man that would go on to become America’s greatest-ever investor: Warren Buffett. 

2. 'One Up on Wall Street’ by Peter Lynch


Peter Lynch was the manager of the Magellan Fund at Fidelity Investments between 1977 and 1990. His average annual return was 29.2%, making it the best-performing mutual fund in the world at that time.

In simple language suited to beginners and professional alike, Lynch explains how individual investors can beat professionals in markets. He says individuals often get information about a growing company before institutional investors, and that has the potential to turn into a multi-bagger (making many times your original money) investment.

Many investors site Lynch’s book as one that got them first enthused with investing, as it was for me.

3. ‘The Little Book That Beats the Market’ by Joel Greenblatt 


After setting up a hedge fund in 1985, Greenblatt achieved returns of 50% per annum over the next 10 years – one of the most extraordinary investment track records. Here, he explains his methods in terms that a 7-year-old kid can understand.

Greenblatt used a so-called a GARP (Growth at a reasonable price) strategy, investing in companies with high returns on invested capital (ROIC) yet on low-to-average valuation multiples.

This is a book squarely aimed at beginners. The author has written a more advanced book, You Can Be a Stock Market Genius, which is just as good as this one.  

4. 'Capital Account' by Edward Chancellor


This is for more sophisticated investors. Chancellor collates the investment letters of the highly successful UK-based fund manager, Marathon Asset Management. The letters introduce Marathon’s capital cycle theory. When investors analyse an industry, they often look purely at demand growth, where Marathon suggests the supply side is much more important. 

If you read this, you’ll better understand why the US tech sector was ripe for a market reckoning in 2022, and where to find potential opportunities in under-appreciated industries.

5. ‘The Essays of Warren Buffett’ by Lawrence Cunningham


Buffett has done the world an enormous favour by writing about investing in his annual shareholder letters for decades. The letters are a treasure trove of information that every serious investor should read and re-read.

This book is a compilation of Buffett’s shareholder letters and it’s endorsed by Buffett himself. If you want to read about Buffett, start here first. Then go to Alice Schroeder’s, The Snowball.

6. ‘The Little Book of Common Sense Investing’ by John Bogle


Bogle revolutionized the finance industry by founding Vanguard in 1974 and introducing index investing. Low-cost index investing has become the norm and it’s made markets more accessible to millions of investors.

In this book, Bogle boils down complex investment issues into simple, understandable language. Yes, he preaches passive investing, but does it in a gentle, humble, yet rigorous way.

7. ‘The Money Masters’ by John Train


Train is one of the most brilliant, yet underappreciated writers on investments. A fund manager himself, this book examines the different styles of some of the investment greats and how they’ve outperformed over long periods.

Train was an early investor in Warren Buffett and his book analyses what makes Buffett brilliant in a way few others have done since. 

8. 'Winning the Losers Game’ by Charles Ellis


Investing is more about making few errors, rather than picking winners. Ellis suggests the investment game has changed from a winner’s game into a loser’s game. In the decades before 1975, individual investors dominated the stock market. Since then, professional investors have proliferated, making the stock market more efficient. That means outperforming the market is much more difficult. 

Ellis suggests that the way you win a winner’s game is different to that of winning a loser’s game. In the stock market, as it’s become a loser’s game in Ellis’ view, there are two ways to win. First, you can choose not to play the loser’s game. Even in 1975, Ellis had become an advocate of passive investing. The second way that you can choose to play the loser’s game is by losing less than your opponents via making less mistakes. 

9. ‘The Big Short’ by Michael Lewis


Michael Lewis has been the best writer on markets over the past 20 years. His book Liar’s Poker became a cult classic about the high stakes gambling and deception at one of Wall Street’s largest brokerages in the 1980s. This book is equally as good, profiling investors who shorted the US housing market before 2008 and made extraordinary amounts of money.

Given the quality of the book, I haven’t bothered with seeing the movie version – though I should get around to it sometime.

10. ‘The Warren Buffett Way’ By Robert Hagstrom


This is the book to get if you want an in-depth look at Buffett’s investment strategies. For instance, it breaks down why he invested in famous portfolio holdings such as Washington Post and Coca-Cola.

It’s aimed at the intermediate to advanced investor who wants to deepen his understanding of the key tenets to successful long-term investing. 

11. ‘Investing for Growth’ by Terry Smith


UK-based investor Terry Smith is one of the best global investors of the past decade. This book is a compilation of his shareholder letters. Smith is known for being both outspoken and blunt, and he doesn’t mind taking on the views of the financial establishment if he thinks they’re nonsense.

His letters give clear insights into why he invests in growth companies and avoids investing in certain sectors such as banks.

12. ‘The Downfall of Money’ by Frederick Taylor


This book is about history, not investing. Studying serious economic crises is a great way to learn about past excesses that went wrong. In this case, it’s the study of how debts incurred from World War Two led to Germany printing so much money, that it ended with hyperinflation in the 1920s. Before that, Germany was one of the world’s most advanced countries, but hyperinflation destroyed it. So much so that it played a big part in Hitler eventually coming to power. 100 years later, the period is still seared into the memories of Germans, who remain paranoid of both inflation and hyperinflation.

Frederick Taylor writes a moving and powerful story that shows the enormous damage done to societies and individuals.

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SeanSchilling
2 months ago

I recently finished my first two money/ investing books. Last year I made the mistake of trying to tackle "The intelligent Investor" as my first investment book and well I didn't make it very far through and a lot of it just seemed out of my depth at the time. But after looking at some people's recommendations I downloaded " The little book of Behavioural Investing" By James Montier. I really enjoyed listening to this book and I feel like I learnt more about what kind of investor I currently am and how I can improve my own behavioural downfalls.

The Second book I downloaded was " The Psychology of money" By Morgan Housel. I think if I was to recommend a first book or a book that everyone should read it would be this one. I do wish Schools would teach more about the ideas/ themes that are discussed in this book. Even things as simply how powerful saving can be and not accumulating debt, things that don't seem so hard but really doesn't get talked about at all to young people.

Anyway I was wondering if anyone might have a suggestion or recommendation on what might fit in well for my next read.

14

Rocketrod
2 months ago

@SeanSchilling if you haven't read them already, here are the names of a few books you might like to try:

"The most important thing" by Howard Marks.

"The essays of Warren Buffett" by :Lawrence Cunningham

"One up on Wall street" Peter Lynch

"Poor Charlie's almanack -the wit and wisdom of Charles Munger"

I think @Strawman did a podcast with Scott Phillips (The Motley Fool) a year or two ago where they discussed 10 investment books worth reading.. You should be able to find it on Spotify or other podcast providers


14

CanadianAussie
2 months ago

Hi Sean,

The Intelligent Investor is a very dry and dated book but there are some timeless lessons that make it worth reading. If I remember correctly, chapters 8 and 20 are the most valuable. If you prefer I've included my notes in the "Education" forum topic (you'll have to scroll down a bit), or my twitter notes:

https://twitter.com/mater_dura/status/1348102831786532868?t=MVwBXLKxMceYvVlPYILT7w&s=19

https://arichlife.com.au/a-very-short-summary-of-the-intelligent-investor-by-benjamin-graham/

Morgan Housel is a great writer but I think I'm the only one who finds The Psychology of Money overrated.


My top picks for books (and notes):

The Wisdom of Crowds - Surowiecki

This will give you a better appreciation of markets.

https://twitter.com/mater_dura/status/1355739172900806657?t=RfpDf39SWtezoMozxcimNA&s=19

7 Powers - Helmer

All about competitive advantage.

https://twitter.com/mater_dura/status/1313782140392280065?t=RAInydkwSnyhGjc6b0_dUg&s=19

Or see the Education topic in the Strawman forum.

Common Stocks, Uncommon Profits - Fisher

A favourite of mine, all about long term growth investing.

https://twitter.com/mater_dura/status/1350658213562118147?t=oRF9Y_87o6xtyzeJuBksBA&s=19

The Snowball - Schroeder

All about Warren Buffett, a very enjoyable read.

https://twitter.com/mater_dura/status/1456405809257074689?t=WOZcKhOoICu-WIf5ZLYEHg&s=19

The Most Important Thing - Howard Marks

Marks explains difficult topics very simply. This book is great for numerous topics but I find provides valuable insight on risk in particular that other sources neglect.

The Little Book of Behavioural Investing - Montier

You've already mentioned this one.

https://twitter.com/mater_dura/status/1453625624791162881?t=SiPK-oMCbS1TUpBmcyl9xA&s=19

https://arichlife.com.au/book-review-of-the-little-book-of-behavioural-investing-by-james-montier/

Investing the Last Liberal Art - Hagstrom

About mental models and how we can apply learning from other disciplines to our investing process.

https://arichlife.com.au/investing-the-last-liberal-art-a-short-book-review/

I'll have another look when I get home to see if I've missed anything but these are the ones that come to mind. I hope that helps.

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fcmaster26
2 months ago

The first money/investing book I've ever read was "a Dog Called Money". My mom bought it for me when I was little and I would recommend it to my kid in the future.

As for adults who have no prior knowledge in investing but don't want to read "The Intelligent Investor", I would go with "One up on Wall street", which was also recommended by @Rocketrod. Great book, we should all read it. I'll probably go read it again after posting this.

Maybe watch a couple Youtube Videos about reading financial statements. You have to learn the language of accounting.

Please avoid "Rich dad poor dad", not worth your time.

If you want something about economics, my favourite is "the Economic Problem" by R.G. Hawtrey. I know it's a pretty old book and new economics theories have been came out in the past couple decades, but still, this book is a great starting point. I really like the way Hawtrey thinks and everyone can learn a thing or two from this very unique theorist.

Also, it never hurt to read "the Richest Man in Babylon". We all could benefit from some straightforward and old-fashioned values, especially in this crazy era we are living in.

I'll stop here before I start sounding like a really old guy.




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SeanSchilling
2 months ago

Thanks mate, couple books I haven’t heard before so will definitely give them a look. Always appreciate any advice

4
Bear77
2 months ago

See also: What investing books am I missing? (strawman.com)

And Looking for investment books to read. (strawman.com)

And Good Books (strawman.com) [This one even has the same title as the one you're reading now, but is a different thread]

And Review of book - 100 baggers C Mayer (strawman.com)

And Investment-related reading for your weekend (strawman.com)

And Interesting reading (strawman.com)

Pity we can't get all of those under one heading or merged into one thread with posts in chronological order... I get the impression many people aren't using the "search" function on the "Forum" page to see if there is already a thread there that they could add to - rather than creating a new one about the same topic.

14
SaberX
3 months ago

Besides the old time recommended Intelligent Investor, what are most using for core skills in valuation and actually putting a tangible calculation to excel? There's a fair few books that cover the theory of fundamental analysis, but far few that actually go into the nuts and bolts on actually calculating/having a go at the valuation process (like full on details, than jsut generic revenue, COGS, interest, and other high level labels).


I do know Aswath Damodaran gets a fair bit of thumbs up on valuation and financial modelling. Are there any specific books in his series or other authors and books that are well suited for retail investors? It'd be nice to get a list together for those retail holders who may not come from a finance or investment background and therefore have had on the job training with valuation and models so that they can start on their journey of arriving at a 'value'.

11

Vandelay
3 months ago

Aswath is the writer of "The little book of valuation" which I found very good.

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mikebrisy
3 months ago

Must get that @Vandelay

My bible for valuation is Aswath Damodaran, Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset. 2nd Edition. (Possibly the source for your book.) What I love about it is the worked examples that show you how to do the analysis.

I was raised on Copeland, Keller, and Murrin, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, as part of my sheep dip training earlier in my career.

I have only discovered Damodaran’s work over recent years, and thoroughly recommend. He’s a great teacher.


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CanadianAussie
3 months ago

If you want to learn valuation, particularly using Excel, I'd suggest doing a course instead. Rask education has a great valuation course, as does Corporate Finance Institute.

21

Rapstar
2 months ago

Sneaky link


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Rapstar
2 months ago

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IanF
2 months ago

About 1/2 way through Peter Zeihan's The End of the World is just the Beginning (eBook from the local library version) at the moment.

Gives a very "America will continue to be great the rest of us are going to hell in a handbasket" view but he claims to be a geo-political economist and has heaps of data to back up his predictions, as well as historical parallels.

He has heaps of YouTube videos and has an opinion on most subjects.


11

SaberX
2 months ago

@Vandelay the little book series are great reads. Not too long or big. Do you think though there's enough of a comprehensive resource to study being so "little" so to speak ? Given how broad valuation is as a topic of study?

9

SaberX
2 months ago

@mikebrisy thanks for the insight. I think with valuation or even any finance topic: technical analysis , stop losses ,trading plans etc. It's hard to find books which also implement practical worked examples. Lot of good theory and learn and implement... but unlike university textbooks less example questions or practice to ensure the method is down pat. So it's always good to find books with concrete examples and worked questions

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SaberX
2 months ago

@CanadianAussie have the raskcore membership before it became monthly payments , mainly for the etf research I was curious about. A few courses are free but with the paid value investor courses always advertised are they simple courses for the everyday layman or actually of substance for those who want a serious education in the subject matter?

7

Vandelay
2 months ago

@SaberX There is definitely more to learn. The little book series is an awesome place for people to start. And I second @mikebrisy choice of Aswath Damodarans book - "Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset. 2nd Edition." If you really want to get in the weeds, keep in mind it's more of a text / study book and pretty laborious to read.

15

fcmaster26
2 months ago

I really don't think you should invest any time studying valuation models, unless you are buying a farm or trying to provide financial services in the future. Trying to put an exact price on a business accurately and consistently using valuation models is just pointless. It's insanely difficult if not impossible. Not even Warren Buffett is able to do so.

Just think about it. All the valuation models have a bunch of estimations and assumptions involved as inputs. If those inputs were incorret, then it's not so much of a good idea to use the end results for your investment decisions. If those inputs were in fact correct, it means you are so good at your craft, that you can forecast things like future interest rates correctly. If that's the case, I'm sure there are much quicker ways for you to make money comparing to buying stocks priced cheaper than their actual value.

Farms and orchards are quite different though, but I'm not sure if you were interested.

I would recommand investing most of your time on finding great companies. As Warren Buffett said, "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." As long as you are not paying a ridiculous price for a business, there is a good chance that you are paying a fair price. In fact, you only need some common sense to figure out if a business is way too overvalued and there's no need to study any valuation models.

Here is an example of a rediculously priced company. Let's say there is a company with market cap of $1.2bn making $100k in net profit annualy. It doesn't matter how fast it's growing or how great the technology is. The price is crazy and we should move on, end of story, no need to pull out a spreadsheet here.

14

mikebrisy
2 months ago

I totally agree @fcmaster26 that valuation models will never give you any certainty on the "true value" of a company, for all the reasons you cite especially given the number of assumptions and the timeframe over which they play out.

But that is not the reason why I do it.

Having a detailed DCF (something that requires hours to days of time nvestment), allows you to look at the sensitivity of revenue, cost, investment, capital structure and timeframe assumptions on the valuation. Doing this helps me quantify my upside and downside scenarios, and it provides me markers for tracking the company's progress over time against my thesis.

I'm not a trader, and over quite significant periods of time, the share price of a company can prove to be wildly different than the intrinsic value when taking a long term perspective. So I need to do my own analysis to form a view, and for firms sufficiently mature to allow their operating economics to be understood, I find the DCF an invaluable tool. Of course, DCF's have limitations, and I don't bother with them when the operating and investment economics are still forming.

Importantly, DCFs help me to answer the question "what do I have to believe for the SP to be X or Y".

The other benefit is that it means I only invest in companies that I really unnderstand. Building a good DCF means that I have to be able to translate the principal activities of the company into the financial and cash flow projections.

So, for me, the significant investment in time that I have to make in creating a DCF leads to a deep understanding of the company, its competitive position, and its economics. It is the understanding that is the real purpose of the exercise. The numbers on the spreadsheet are almost secondary.

But, each to their own.

29

Slomo
2 months ago

I am in strong agreement with all of that @mikebrisy.

I have mixed feelings about DCF but have studied valuation formally and applied it informally over many years and have come to the conclusion that I need to do DCF's.

The reason

DCF is the ONLY theoretically sound method for valuing an asset / investment.

That is the Present value of any asset is the discounted value of all future cashflows.

I worked in banking with bond and swap traders and this is exactly how all banks value bond and interest rate swap portfolios.

It is not, however, how banks value equity portfolios (although banks don't tend to hold proprietary equity portfolios any more since the GFC).

Bonds and swaps are far easier as all the cashflows are either know with certainty of amount and timing (for fixed rate) or easily projected (for floating).

Equity cashflows are simply unknowable and more or less impossible to reliably forecast (depending on the business model / how mature the business is).

Explicity vs Implicit assumptions

As valuation gurus Aswath Damadoran and Michael Mauboussin will say, any multiple or other valuation shortcut is simply a DCF with implicit assumptions.

DCF makes these assumptions explicit.

Where I think you have it spot on @mikebrisy is that DCF forces you to confront how the business model translates into Free Cash Flows and this is a big part of the value of doing a DCF. I've heard @Strawman say much the same in the past.

One problem with DCF is that it only takes a small variation in some of the key inputs to give you wild fluctuations in the outputs.

Another is that the Terminal Value usually makes up a large % of the total valuation (often 70-90% for businesses with the best prospects) and TV is the hardest piece to estimate with any reliability.

There are a few solutions to this but all are imperfect.

Potential Solutions

One of the better ones is the reverse DCF as advocated by Michael Mauboussin in his book "Expectations Investing" - which has working models incl in XL online. @mikebrisy mentions this approach too.

Another is to simply apply an estimated exit multiple after X years to avoid having to estimate a TV at all. This is not ideal but much better than abandoning DCF's entirely I believe.

It's worth remembering that this is hard and that's why most investors (including professionals) don't do it.

If you do it, that can be a source of edge.

It takes a while to get your reps up and to build a model(s) you can repeatedly use with useful outputs but persisting with it can only help build your investing fluency.

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Noddy74
2 months ago

A debate about company valuation methods reminds me of the quote attributed to Winston Churchill (not the original source) who said:

"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others"

For all their faults - and there are many valid criticisms - I don't think I've seen a better alternative to the DCF. Alot of that comes down to the reasons that @mikebrisy articulated well - that is, there's at least as much to gain (actually much more to gain) from the process of researching the company and the industry it operates in, gathering all the data that goes into the model, testing assumptions, assessing its sensitivities etc. as there is from the figure it outputs in the end.

I also agree with @Slomo that the reverse DCF is a really effective sense check. Terminal value is a tricky one. I generally just use a multiple - usually EBITDA but it can depend on the industry. I'll vary that multiple up or down depending on the company/industry. It's not ideal but by the time you've gotten to that point you've already made your decision about whether you think they're investible, want to be a shareholder, have a fair idea of what might happen a year or two out and the kind of multiples that implies. If you're a multiple or five out on the terminal value, it might be significant in terms of valuation but I'm not sure it would change an investment decision. Two cents.

17

CanadianAussie
2 months ago

Hi @SaberX

Owen did a revamp of the Value Investor Program awhile back so I'm not sure how suited I am to answer this now. My opinion of the previous course was that it was high quality and hits on quite a few qualitative points many other courses miss. That's not to say the quantitative stuff wasn't in there just that, from memory, the course really excelled in the qualitative. It has been about 2 years since I did the course though. I was asked to provide a tiny amount of material for the new course so keep in mind I could be a bit biased.

If you do the FMVA from CFI and Owen's VIP course you're very well set up. Both courses are high quality and they complement each other quite well.

Hope that helps.

15

SaberX
2 months ago

@Vandelay - noted. I think the issue is i've found, quite a few books on the 'theory' sound great, but sometimes there isn't that text/study book style of writing like back in university where you can actually test your skills or theory. So sometimes you're left wondering if you're interpreting or applying the principles right. For example someone may explain what a DCF is, but how do you know all the sections or methods of you constructing the inputs and models are 'on the right track' when you're starting out. For t hose that work in the field they have a base line of experience to 'venture out' and play around to improve, but it's kind of like a new playert starting off in sports - you jsut don't know if your foot work or racquet technique is 'correct'. Once at a 'baseline' level of proficiency you feel more confident and you have a good understanding if something new 'feels right', so if that makes sense from a sports learning pov, I was also trying to find a decent book that also acts like a teacher (in person) to get you to apply the practical skills learnt.


I'll keep an eye out on Aswath Damodaran's book you mentioned. He has quite a few, but I presume the one you quoted is t he better one to get stuck into? "Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset. 2nd Edition.""

I saw McKinsey and Co have always had a valuation book when i browsed the bookstores, have you or anyone else used the mckinsey book? Was not sure if this was geared to people in management consulting and working in more finance roles and was above and beyond retail investors looking to get up to a sophisticated level of proficiency.

8

SaberX
2 months ago

@fcmaster26 agreed with your sentiments somewhat. It is one of the reason I also signed up with the QAV podcast boys to test run their methods. It resonated with me their admission that as retail holders, we have neither the professional time (if we have other day jobs) or resources to pull out valuation models for all companies as well as the professionals. So by combining technical analysis with some more back of envelope "common sense" meausres of quality, that don't require excessive amounts of time, one can come to a conclusion of a generally good quality company.


I am however at pains and conflict that being a member of strawman and trying to 'pick stocks' it almost seems contradictory to then acknowledge that trying to value a business accurately with valuation models are insanely difficulty or impossible as you mentioned, as then why are we bothering as investors to go down this path? I guess the other conflict for me is if you're trying to find 'wonderful' companies at a fair price, you're still somewhat trying to find a value for t he company somehwat.


So perhaps I may be misinterpreting what you're saying, but the idea is not to be able to do a 'valuation model' that is completely accurate and foolproof, butt something "thereabouts" - to gauge whether a quality company is at a reasonable price. It's kind of like finding the direction north, you might not know the exact roads that will take you there the fastest, but getting you in that general direction as a start.

Probably butchering what you mean... but again I guess it's g oing back to Buffet's finding quality companies first, then ensuring the price is 'fair enough'. But how you determine 'fair enough' i think is the point here - do we make peace with reasonable valuation models and methods, knowing we can never get it right as there's too many assumptions.

7

SaberX
2 months ago

Thanks @CanadianAussie - when I've conquered the other educational material at Rask and all t he 'catch up' on reading I have, I'll try and sign up perhaps for the Value INvestors program, quite often they run $100-150 off coupons so perhaps I"ll snag one of them. at under $400 it can't be too bad to give it a try if it is hands on and practical as you mentioned.


Sorry but what is the FMVA? And do you know how much this is normally and if suited for retail holders who don't work in the space but looking to upskill?

Edit: scrap that, i did more googling and presume you mean this:

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/certifications/financial-modeling-valuation-analyst-fmva-program/


Is the full immersion required or the self study at $497/year works? I presume it isn't a time based course e.g. do 5 units to get your chartered, but it is charged per year as the descriptions state "150+ courses, 5,000+ lessons and labs", so im presuming it is piece meal courses that cover variety of topics that form the overall valuation coursework? Or is it actually structured as a start to finish course (with lessons broken up) so that everyone goes through t he whole gamut by the end? Did you find it practical for a retail investor looking for some modelling/valuation skills to better align understanding of companies, or more suited for professionals who will be doing valuations and modelling throughout their 9-5? Have accounting experience, but wouldn't be in my 9-5 wheelhouse.

CHeers,

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CanadianAussie
2 months ago

Hi @SaberX

My apologies, the FMVA program is the Financial Modelling and Valuation Analyst course run by Corporate Finance Institute. It's definitely suited for retail investors. I started it a month into my investing journey with no financial knowledge- not knowing what free cash flow was or how to read financial statements and it got me to the point where I could do DCFs, confidently read financial statements, know what LTV/CAC etc etc all meant. I highly recommend it.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/certifications/financial-modeling-valuation-analyst-fmva-program/


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SaberX
2 months ago

@mikebrisy @Vandelay just went looking for the Aswath Damodaran book, the 2nd edition appears to now b e superceded by a 3rd edition. Do you know of any major differences or would I be ok picking up a cheaper second hand book cost wise to see if it gels, before investing in the newer edition hardcover. Like all textbooks they don't come cheap brand new, but i'm wondering if it's similar to the versions of security analysis where some preferred the older versions as better than the newer. Although in this case it would be Aswath releasing the new editions and not someone else doing over a new version somewhat.

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CanadianAussie
2 months ago

The self-study is fine and it's weird how they've transitioned to a recurring yearly fee but it's not piece-meal courses, there's definitely structure.

I did FMVA, CBCA and started CMSA. CBCA is more banking and only mildly beneficial for investing. FMVA will be what you're looking for if you can commit the time.

You don't need any experience, I was a financial idiot when I started. It's definitely suited for retail investors.

If you have any other questions feel free to hit me up in DMs.

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Vandelay
2 months ago

Agreed.

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mikebrisy
2 months ago

The McKinsey classic is "Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies", Copeland, Koller and Murrin, Wiley. I have the 2nd Edition, but the latest edition is the 7th Edition by Koller, Goedhart and Wessels. I was trained using this text three decades ago. Although I was doing valuation as a consultant, ultimately, the valuation problems were about valuing enterprises and business combinations in the same way as you do as an investor or an investment banker. The book is very descriptive, as it aims to build a detailed understanding of the fundamentals of valuation. It is good in that it provides some of the basics of valuing companies which have a more complex capital structure, and it alerts you to look out for things on the balance sheet that can impact valuation, such as preferred stock. All of the concepts are supported by examples, at a relevant level of detail. From a quick look at the table of contents of the 7th edition on Amazon, the book has come a long way over the years and looks to be more user-friendly.

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mikebrisy
2 months ago

@SaberX I have the 2nd edition from 2002, and the 3rd edition is from 2012, I think. While the basics haven't changed, more recent editions incorporate learnings from each era. On Amazon.com you can see the tables of contents of each, and usually the Foreward as well. The Foreward of the 3rd edition should tell you the major revisions that have been included, so you can then judge for yourself whether you are prepared to pay up for them.





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OUTSIDEcapital
2 months ago

Hey mate, never heard of this one, despite knowing Oppenheimer.

I've read Marks - Mastering market cycles & Dalio - Big Debt Crisis

Think this one is still worth the read?

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Rick
2 months ago

This forum on ‘Good Books’ has been a great read. There has also been some great discussion about DCF valuations which would be great to bring together in a forum on Valuations (of which there seem to be many).

To be honest I haven’t used a DCF to value a business. I’m keen to understand DCF valuations so I’ve bought ‘The Little Book of Valuation” recommended by @Vandelay. I’m wading my way through it, but while it might be a “little book” it is certainly not a “small read”. I’m struggling to understand some of it and will most likely go through it a few times before I can grasp it. Are there any Strawfolk who might be interested in a “Little Book of Valuation - Book Club” forum on Strawman?

Most of my business valuations are currently based on McNiven’s Formula which is explained in Brian McNiven’s book “Market Wise” published by Hinkler Books back in 2006. Unfortunately, from my searches, the book is no longer available.

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There is later book by McNiven titled “Concise Guide to Value Investing: How to Buy Wonderful Companies at a Fair Price”. I haven’t read this, but the content, including the formula, looks familiar. There are limited copies available on Amazon here.

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Someone has also put up a brief explanation of McNiven’s Formula online which I often refer to in my valuations. The explanation here is accurate in my view.

As you can see my copy is well used, heavily book marked, and inside their is highlighted text throughout.

It has taken me a while, but the formula is no longer a mystery to me. It is no longer some sort of ‘black box’ where I blindly enter the variables and come up with a valuation. It now makes complete sense to me and has changed the way I think about investing and the businesses I invest in. @Noddy74 made a similar comment about going through the DCF steps and how it helps you to understand what matters when you value a business.

My mind is always open to alternative views and methods of valuation including the DCF. There seems to be so many smart people here on Strawman using DCFs that it is about time I learnt how to do one!

Until now, while not understanding DCF, there is a section on McNiven’s book that had me doubting it. Not being familiar with DCFs, I can’t really comment on what McNiven says about DCF. However, I am hoping there might be a few gurus here on Strawman who understand DCFs and can comment on McNiven’s view:

McNiven’s view on Discounted Future Cash Flows, Dividends and Reinvested Earnings.

Someone once proclaimed – and others now repeat the nonsense – that a company’s value is the sum of its future annual cash flows over the life of the business discounted by an appropriate interest rate. Cash flow for the purpose of the calculation is defined as net profit after tax, plus amortisation and depreciation allowances less capital expenditure (capex) – what Buffet calls ‘owners earnings’.

Let’s suppose that we estimate that owner’s earnings will increase by 10% p.a., and desirous of a 10% return, we use a discount rate of 10% to determine the PV of the company’s future cash flows. If a company’s per share cash flow today is $1, and we assume it will increase in each subsequent year by 10% and discount those future sums at 10% p.a., each future year’s cash flow will have a discounted PV of $1 (1 x 1.1n x 1.1 -n = $1). The theory therefore suggests that the value or PV will depend entirely on how long we expect the company to remain in business. Should such a period be 10, 100 or 1000 years, the PV of each future year’s cash flow of $1 will be $10, $100 or $1000. If we assume that the company remains in business in perpetuity, the value will be infinite.

Moreover, if a business is able to maintain an annual increase in its internal cash flow of 10% p.a. while contemporaneously paying dividends, its value will obviously be greater than if the return for from the stock is solely attributable to reinvesting 100% of profits at 10% p.a.. Quite clearly, like a fixed-interest deposit where the interest is allowed to compound, the value in the above circumstances, excluding any provision for dividends and based on an required return (RR) of 10%, is simply the current equity per share (equity x ROE10% / RR10%). 

What this theory fails to recognise is the difference between the cash flow retained by the company to increase subsequent internal cash flows and the cash flow received by the owners. I have even seen the value of the cash flow counted twice – once I the year in which it occurred and secondly when the future value it created is discounted back. 

When using the discounted cash flow method, the cash flow to be discounted is the owner’s cash flow as measured by annual dividends and the terminal value of the stock – at some future point of time – that the reinvested cash flow (retained profits) creates.

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SaberX
a month ago

@CanadianAussie thanks for the feedback. Given your coming from a retail pov I'll go with your recommendation that the FMVA is more appropriate for the retail investor looking for an in-depth learning experience. It sounds like it's a pretty full on course so I may hide my time till the little one grows up a bit as keeping up to date with strawman and other investing material already is a struggle. Will try and get on top of everything and hopefully revisit the potential later this year. What would be a conservative amount of time you spent on the course ?

Also, if you don't mind me asking, what did they charge back in the day for one time access ? Are you able to revisit the course material still? I do get somewhat anxious at the whole annual recurring access, it's great for business, but it would be nice to not feel rushed and that you can revisit material in the future. Which is why one time access and buying books have always been more my thing.

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SaberX
a month ago

@mikebrisy do you feel that buying the McKinsey book when one isn't in a relevant occupation as you were would be suitable for retail investors? For example for those that may be working in a relevant field, or those that may have access to internal due diligence that retail holders won't get - does the book cover topics or methods that retail investors can access via public information only?, Or it's still much of a textbook for someone working their day job in a related field?


I did notice now there's a normal edition and an "university edition". Though I still am having difficulty digging into what exactly the difference is. do you happen to know?

Cheers regarding the 2nd and 3rd editions differences. I'll go have a look at the foreword for revisions. The second hand books are pretty affordable so maybe a good way to wade into the book so see if it's in my wheelhouse before dropping more cash for the latest edition.

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SaberX
a month ago

Heyas @Rick haven't heard of Brian Mcniven before. I'll bookmark it in good reads and see if there's any way of picking up a copy. Keen to hear if anyone else rates the book or if we're better off sticking with some of the other well known names (Damodadan, Ben Graham Bible's, and an assortment of value investor publication books).


I've seen that there's a fair few value investors coasting through sound value investing concepts. But sometimes you just want a dirty, bloody hard and intellectual read on the whole A to Z what to do process i.e. the likes of a Damodadan, McKinsey textbook. Sure it's dry....but sometimes it's good to read exactly what the author does , as some sometimes skirt on the harder details that your left scratching your head filling in the blanks alongside the general value investing theory.

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Hi @SaberX

The course has changed since I did it, for example there never used to be a final exam. At the time they suggested 120hrs but I believe it took me about 90.

I think I got a discount and paid around $500 for just FMVA so while I don't like the annual recurring subscription either, you do now have access to EVERYTHING, not just the single course.

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mikebrisy
a month ago

@SaberX both Copeland et al. and Damodaran explain concepts in a clear and descriptive manner. I think the main pre-requisite for each is that you already understand the definitions in company accounts (P&L, Cash Flow, Balance Sheet) and key accounting ratios. Whether you are a professional in the field is less important - I wasn't when I started using these texts.

In terms of accessibility to someone new to valuing companies, I think Damodaran's descriptive style is a bit more accessible, even if it can be a bit long (even "The Little Book" is 230 pages).

As to older or latest editions - the basics haven't changed to my knowledge. So, if a minimum cost approach is a factor, then I think you would get value from an older edition. But then again, I would say that only owning Copeland 2nd and Damodaran 2nd. (Having said that, this Forum discussion has given me a nudge to think about updating!)

As important, however, is your learning style. As @CanadianAussie has written, many people will prefer a structured course with videos and supporting materials over a book.

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fcmaster26
a month ago

If you've already bought the McKinsey book, you should read it, why not? You can absolutely benefit a lot from this book if you were interested in valuation models. I read this book years ago myself and enjoyed it.

Don't worry too much about not having the secret internal due diligence that is only available to institutions. Institutions get screwed all the time, even with all the professional due diligence and information not accessible to the public. The only difference is the money they lose is larger in figure and belong to clients, which they don't really care.

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