Hi Strawpeople. I've been working on a qualitative analysis checklist for my personal investment process. I have tried to refine this list by only including questions which are important and knowable. The only section which doesn't really fit the important & knowable box is "5. Future/Outlook". However, with the market being future driven this is an important section, which I have attempted to make these generalized without requiring specific forecasts. I've grabbed a lot of these from other checklists I have seen or heard from various people.
Would love to hear some feedback on anything important that I may have missed / overlooked, or anything on the list that isn't important? See list below:-
1. Business
• What does the company do and is it easily understandable?
• What is the problem the company is solving and how are they solving it? - Where? Why does it need solving?
• What is the company business model? What is the pathway from product/service/offering to payment?
• Is the product offering diverse and therefore income generation diverse?
• Is the company a price maker or price taker?
• Does the business generate recurring revenues? How reliable is this recurring revenue?
• Who are the core customers of the business?
• Is the customer base diverse?
• Is it easy to convince customers to buy the products/service?
• What is the customer retention rate?
• How long does it take for a company to recoup its customer acquisition costs?
• Does the company operate in multiple markets/countries?
• Does the company operate in stable markets?
• Is there a history of launching new lines of business successfully?
• Is the company disruptive and innovative in its field?
• Are the profit margins attractive (better than industry)?
• What are the CAPEX requirements and are they ongoing?
• Has the business evolved for the better over time?
• Does the business have strong and supportive relationship over its suppliers?
• To what degree is the business cyclical?
• What extent does the business experience operating leverage?
• How does interest rate increase and inflation affect the business?
• Does the company spend a reasonable amount on R&D? Look at how R&D evolves over time in % of sales.
• Is the company unknown or misunderstood by the market?
2. MOAT
• What are the barriers to entry for competitors?
• What is the competitive advantage the company has on its competitors? Is it strong and sustainable?
• Is the company the leader in its field?
• Are there any barriers to leave for customers, or switching costs (benefits for the customer improve over time, making it hard to leave)?
• Could the business raise prices without losing customers?
• What is the degree of dependence the customers have on this business? If the business disappeared tomorrow, what impact would this have on its customer base?
• Does the company have Network effects (if the positive impact of market share gain compounds)?
• Does the company have intangible assets (e.g. a strong brand with consumer appeal)?
• Does the company have cost advantages (a lower cost structure or price point than competitors)?
• Is the company at an efficient scale (e.g. geographic dominance)? If not, is it on track to dominate the geographies/markets it operates in?
• Does the company have a distinguishable product, IP or patents to block competitors?
• Is the MOAT growing?
• How likely will the MOAT be intact in 10 years?
3. Management
• Could anybody run this business, or does it need extremely competent management?
• How is management remunerated?
• What are the KPI’s for performance pay, are they long-term incentivized?
• Are stock options treated as an expense?
• Is the company founder/family led?
• Does the CEO and board have high insider ownership?
• Board of directors (BOD) relevant experience that complements each other?
• Does the management have a track record of meeting or over delivering on any guidance?
• Has the management shown in the past it can stick to and execute business goals?
• Does the management think and make decisions for the long-term?
• Passionate CEO or Founder with a proven track record in that industry?
• Has the management demonstrated a high degree of integrity (honesty)?
• Are the management enthusiastic about the business and its future?
• Are the managers clear and consistent with messaging to stakeholders? Is management candid with shareholders (evidence in the past of open disclosure to the shareholders when there have been problems)?
• Has management resisted the temptation to grow quickly by merger & acquisition?
• Has management resisted chasing institutional imperatives (avoid following current business and sector fads)?
• Does the management value its employees and ensure a good company culture?
4. Risks
• What are the main reasons this might not be a good investment?
• What are the key risks the business faces?
• How competitive is the industry landscape?
• Who are the main competitors?
• What are the competitors doing better than the company?
• Are company expenses managed well?
• What emerges if you research detractors of the company online? What do they point to?
• Do any of the management or board have a shady past or red flags?
• Have there been any related party transactions that seem odd?
• Is the auditor the company uses reputable?
• What is the likelihood this businesses product/service/offering becomes obsolete within the next 10 years?
• Invert. How could the management destroy value for shareholders, and how likely would it be for this to occur?
• How would this business be affected in a recession?
• Is there a risk of government regulation or restriction?
• What could I be wrong about?
5. Future/Outlook
• Does the company have favourable long-term prospects? Will there be more need/demand for this company's products or services in 5 years’ time and why?
• Are there opportunities for the company to expand its product/service range?
• Are there other markets the company could go into that would make sense (optionality of further growth prospects)?
• Is the TAM large and does the company have a long runway?
• Does the industry it operates in have headwinds (reducing need) or tailwinds (growing need)?
• What are the key growth drivers of the industry and the company?
• Does the management have a clear concise plan/strategy for the long-term future?
• Has the business demonstrated it is growing organically and will most likely continue?
• Is there a clear path to improved margins?
6. Tracking Company Progress?
• What are the company’s important trackable KPI’s?
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• Are there other aspects of the business, specific to the industry involved, which will give important clues as to how outstanding the company may be in relation to its competition?
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7. When to Sell?
• What are my sell triggers? What occurrences would cause me to sell?
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