Forum Topics Qualitative analysis checklist
Vandelay
2 years ago

Hi Strawpeople. I've been working on a qualitative analysis checklist for my personal investment process. I have tried to refine this list by only including questions which are important and knowable. The only section which doesn't really fit the important & knowable box is "5. Future/Outlook". However, with the market being future driven this is an important section, which I have attempted to make these generalized without requiring specific forecasts. I've grabbed a lot of these from other checklists I have seen or heard from various people.

Would love to hear some feedback on anything important that I may have missed / overlooked, or anything on the list that isn't important? See list below:-

1. Business

• What does the company do and is it easily understandable?

• What is the problem the company is solving and how are they solving it? - Where? Why does it need solving? 

• What is the company business model? What is the pathway from product/service/offering to payment? 

• Is the product offering diverse and therefore income generation diverse?

• Is the company a price maker or price taker?

• Does the business generate recurring revenues? How reliable is this recurring revenue? 

• Who are the core customers of the business?

• Is the customer base diverse?

• Is it easy to convince customers to buy the products/service?

• What is the customer retention rate?

• How long does it take for a company to recoup its customer acquisition costs?

• Does the company operate in multiple markets/countries?

• Does the company operate in stable markets?

• Is there a history of launching new lines of business successfully?

• Is the company disruptive and innovative in its field?  

• Are the profit margins attractive (better than industry)?

• What are the CAPEX requirements and are they ongoing?

• Has the business evolved for the better over time?

• Does the business have strong and supportive relationship over its suppliers?

• To what degree is the business cyclical?

• What extent does the business experience operating leverage?

• How does interest rate increase and inflation affect the business?

• Does the company spend a reasonable amount on R&D? Look at how R&D evolves over time in % of sales. 

• Is the company unknown or misunderstood by the market?

2. MOAT

• What are the barriers to entry for competitors?

• What is the competitive advantage the company has on its competitors? Is it strong and sustainable?

• Is the company the leader in its field?

• Are there any barriers to leave for customers, or switching costs (benefits for the customer improve over time, making it hard to leave)? 

• Could the business raise prices without losing customers?

• What is the degree of dependence the customers have on this business? If the business disappeared tomorrow, what impact would this have on its customer base?

• Does the company have Network effects (if the positive impact of market share gain compounds)?

• Does the company have intangible assets (e.g. a strong brand with consumer appeal)?

• Does the company have cost advantages (a lower cost structure or price point than competitors)?

• Is the company at an efficient scale (e.g. geographic dominance)? If not, is it on track to dominate the geographies/markets it operates in?

• Does the company have a distinguishable product, IP or patents to block competitors?

• Is the MOAT growing?

• How likely will the MOAT be intact in 10 years?

3. Management

• Could anybody run this business, or does it need extremely competent management?

• How is management remunerated? 

• What are the KPI’s for performance pay, are they long-term incentivized?

• Are stock options treated as an expense?

• Is the company founder/family led?

• Does the CEO and board have high insider ownership?

• Board of directors (BOD) relevant experience that complements each other?

• Does the management have a track record of meeting or over delivering on any guidance?

• Has the management shown in the past it can stick to and execute business goals?

• Does the management think and make decisions for the long-term?

• Passionate CEO or Founder with a proven track record in that industry?

• Has the management demonstrated a high degree of integrity (honesty)?

• Are the management enthusiastic about the business and its future?

• Are the managers clear and consistent with messaging to stakeholders? Is management candid with shareholders (evidence in the past of open disclosure to the shareholders when there have been problems)? 

• Has management resisted the temptation to grow quickly by merger & acquisition? 

• Has management resisted chasing institutional imperatives (avoid following current business and sector fads)?

• Does the management value its employees and ensure a good company culture?

4. Risks

• What are the main reasons this might not be a good investment? 

• What are the key risks the business faces?

• How competitive is the industry landscape? 

• Who are the main competitors?

• What are the competitors doing better than the company?

• Are company expenses managed well?

• What emerges if you research detractors of the company online? What do they point to?

• Do any of the management or board have a shady past or red flags?

• Have there been any related party transactions that seem odd?

• Is the auditor the company uses reputable?

• What is the likelihood this businesses product/service/offering becomes obsolete within the next 10 years?

• Invert. How could the management destroy value for shareholders, and how likely would it be for this to occur?

• How would this business be affected in a recession?

• Is there a risk of government regulation or restriction? 

• What could I be wrong about?

5. Future/Outlook

• Does the company have favourable long-term prospects? Will there be more need/demand for this company's products or services in 5 years’ time and why? 

• Are there opportunities for the company to expand its product/service range?

• Are there other markets the company could go into that would make sense (optionality of further growth prospects)?

• Is the TAM large and does the company have a long runway?

• Does the industry it operates in have headwinds (reducing need) or tailwinds (growing need)?

• What are the key growth drivers of the industry and the company?

• Does the management have a clear concise plan/strategy for the long-term future?

• Has the business demonstrated it is growing organically and will most likely continue?

• Is there a clear path to improved margins?

6. Tracking Company Progress?

• What are the company’s important trackable KPI’s? 

a.  

b.

• Are there other aspects of the business, specific to the industry involved, which will give important clues as to how outstanding the company may be in relation to its competition?

a.  

b.

7. When to Sell?

• What are my sell triggers? What occurrences would cause me to sell?

a.  

b.

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Vandelay
2 years ago

I see @Bradbury is using the checklist I compiled. I'd love some feedback or anything you would add?


Also, just want to clarify for anyone reading the list, that this isn't a checklist of criteria that a company must have for me to invest. Or even a pass/fail scenario. I have been using the above checklist as a way to force myself to deeply understand a business. It helps me make an assessment on the qualitative aspect of a company. It helps me identify winners and weed out losers (definitely not fool proof as a lot is subjective). Its also a touchstone for me to look back on if i make a mistake, allowing me to easily identify what i got wrong and how it can be avoided in future. Sometimes all the questions aren't applicable to every business or have very generic answers. But there's just something about going through the process which I find really helpful.

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Mujo
2 years ago

I think it is a great list.

FYI if you haven't read The Investment Checklist by Michael Shearn I would put it up there as one of the most practical investment books I have read - it is very underrated and i don't see it mentioned often. I am about 3/4 through so will add some points once I've finished.

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Bradbury
2 years ago

Hi @Vandelay its my first time running through your list and I was trying to compile something similar for the same reasons you have stated.

Thanks for sharing with the Strawman community.

I found this process was good for structuring my reading and research as I tend to find myself with a thousand tabs open at once.

After working through the questions, ( and still yet to finish the first round) I need to focus on not trying to rush to complete the list and consider it more of a process than an output.

The other takeaway so far is trying to look at second order thinking for responses to a question. Ie what are the impacts of the answer or what does that mean for the company.

After I watch the meeting with Will tonight (might try listening during work) I will attempt to finish the list and let you know any other thoughts I have, but I imagine everyone’s process is very individual.

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