New newsletter from Lyn Alden - https://www.lynalden.com/august-2023-newsletter/
Mostly focusses on AI.
Here’s the latest overview of the global macro, from my favourite economist Mohamed El-Erian. Link to video
It puts market performance August to date in the context of the bigger picture, and offers a worrying diagnosis of China.
US Macro - Retail Sales Update
Here is the latest "Market Takes" from WSJ with Dion Rabouin. It is a great data-driven narrative overview of where the US macro is at.
Key messages:
By the market close, all major US indices in positive territory.
Note that, separately on Monday, Goldman Sachs reduced its probability of a US recession in the next 12 months from 25% to 20% (if that means anything at all!)
Here's the key data from the retail report.
https://www.lynalden.com/july-2023-newsletter/
Note that these graphs are US centric.
I'm not sure I agree with all of this. While increasing interest rates will increase debt and deficit, I I wonder it will still lower demand and inflation. My thinking here is that more federal debt here will not increase demand for goods because the debt is not being used to purchase things (instead it's just creating extra debt) like it would be with a normal government deficit where they are creating infrastructure programs or giving money to people.
Regardless of this, I think my view remains that this debt is never getting paid back without massive inflation above interest rates or monetisation of the debt.
This is interesting on housing.