A lot of companies are reporting logistics costs and delays in FY22 results. Here's an update from Statista.com on global container shipping. (Note: signfiicant differences depending on the route).
Oil & Gas are obvious ones. But I think there are a few right tail risks that are increasingly likely to happen:
1) Siberian oil production gets shut out, as western expertise leaves, and oil stores fill. When these wells get shut out, they remain offline for many years. Satellite analysis indicates Siberian oil production dropped 10% in March.
2) Oil pipeline from Russia to Germany passes through Belarus. This is likely to be taken out by Ukraine at some point, and eventually, Europe will source alternative suppliers. .
3) The black sea will be closed to Russian shipping. Oil from Kazakstan is shipped through Russia to the Black sea, and it now cannot be exported once the black sea is closed.
4) Far East oil fields serve Vladivostock terminal and China via pipeline. The problem with these oil fields are that they are run by western oil companies, such as Shell. Theses fields require very specialised engineering capability, which is now gone with the Western companies. The far eastern oil field production will decay over time without the technical expertise from the West.
5) If oil prices increase, the US may ban exports of oil, capping US oil prices, but further reducing global supply. If this occurs - all bets are off.
If the above occurs - +$150 USD / barrel is on the cards.....
As a point of interest .... mushrooms are levied very heavily by Dept of Agriculture, Water, Environment.
I don't see how producers can afford $4/kg levy on mushrooms (taxable on the first 370,000 kilos)
Comparing to Other Industries
https://www.awe.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/levies/commodities
I'm suspecting the Aluminium market is under the radar at this time. Price of Aluminium at all time low.
Disc: I own Alumina AWC