Forum Topics Tech bear market
mikebrisy
2 years ago

How Low Can Tech Go? - from Exchanges at Goldman Sachs

https://megaphone.link/GLD9657282291

Thought I’d share this podcast as I found it interesting. Many of us are invested in and interested in tech and, while focused on the US market, it reinforces some key general themes. One theme I am focused on is that the eventual bottoming out of the market selloff in tech will present a once in 5-7 year opportunity to make sure we have quality stocks in our portfolios.

Two other themes of interest:

  • Focus on firms that have operating leverage, as these will rebound strongly (but clearly for the most part haven’t been hit so hard)
  • Tech that makes businesses more efficient are likely to do well in an inflationary and recessionary environment, as their B2B customers focus on cost out.


In that respect $TNE, WTC and $XRO remain core holdings for me IRL, and I am still mulling over whether I return to $ALU.


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Nnyck777
2 years ago

I agree with you @mikebrisy I sold CBA and was initially going to buy more FMG but decided to top up my Xero instead - I am a big fan and use it myself. The recent share price decline seemed too good to pass up. With STP and direct reporting and ease of BAS lodging it is getting stickier and stickier and I can’t imagine I’d be tempted to change systems.

Pointerra fits that profile too - increasing business efficiency so it will be something that will still be in the budget for most companies.

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Strawman
2 years ago

You know it's going to be a rough day when news headlines use adjectives like "plunge", "plummet" & "tumble"...

24f690e9bd0f00fa9c0f55bee6f22f47da9bb1.png


At times like this, the big questions for me are:

  • Do I believe my companies will still be around in 5-10 years, and have materially higher (per share) earnings at that point?
  • Can my businesses weather difficult conditions in the interim, without relying on highly dilutive capital raisings?
  • Is the current price fair given those expectations?
  • If possible, should I be looking at adding to my positions?


Stay strong folks, and don't let the monkey part of your brain call the shots.

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learnedone
2 years ago

Regrettably, @Strawman, histrionic adjectives are now part of the default writing style of the "MSM" ie. main-stream media ...

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Valueinvestor0909
2 years ago

It just feels like any other day...to be honest.... maybe I am accustomed to it

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Noddy74
2 years ago

1d3c79c8116171332c29ec4d0cf0e34205499a.png

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Rick
2 years ago

I agree with @Strawman…Stay strong folks!

ef54da73f639a15e3b72d65c4cadc280d16cd1.jpeg

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Rick
2 years ago

The stock market has bounced nicely in the US overnight. Hopefully the momentum is starting to turn for tech stocks. Unless there is a Black Swan event before Monday tech stocks should get another boost.

f1e4fc793eb6eb3f5ad9f3db461e67dd751a7d.jpeg

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=nasdaq+index&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-au&client=safari

2e6340a0822418b9298fd6855054c8f6b71e6d.jpeg

(Australian Financial Review, 14/5/22)

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Strawman
2 years ago

Some more charts on how rough it is out there right now -- if you're a tech investor...

Here's the long run performance of the All Ords, overlaid with the percentage drop (the drawdown) from the previous all time high:

ebae81c042c635578fa3533f035b1be0214ed4.png

Honestly, the current drawdown of 7.2% is nothing. Not even a technical correction.

The story for tech stocks, however, is a lot different:

8d5654639daa20416c08116fa7cb4c4ba5d774.png

Almost as bad as the meltdown when covid first hit.

It's rough out there.

(I tweeted this out also)

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Strawman
2 years ago

@thebehavioralinvestor

I downloaded data from S&P Cap IQ and built a spreadsheet.

You can view it here


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