Forum Topics Market Disruption
Summer12
2 years ago

I believe companies that can reduce or monitor Carbon, Pollution etc will see continued growth, even Albo has mentioned climate change.

CALIX

Envirosuite are just two.

10

Strawman
2 years ago

@Summer12

The CEO of Calix was presenting at the ASA conference in Melbourne yesterday, and he certainly think a Labor Government will be good for them.

He was on stage with Tim Buckley from Climate Energy Finance and the point they were making is that we need to stop thinking about carbon pricing as a necessary compromise to save the planet. Besides, whatever we do here we will be facing an (indirect) carbon price due to legislation in export destinations -- most notably Europe. Most of the industry is crying out for it because they need certainty. But the more important point is that this is a huge opportunity for Australia. This can make us very rich and establish incredible comparative advantages for us.

Our climate, geography and geology give us an edge over almost every country on Earth. We can have an abundance of extremely cheap energy and we can not only export that, but use it in value adding processes -- green aluminium, steel concrete etc. Not even China will be able to compete with us on cost. And we get to play in the higher margin, value-added part of the supply chain (instead of just shipping the unprocessed rocks).

Yes, it will take some serious investment, but the return on capital will be epic over the long run.

The only people who oppose this are vested interests, who actually represent a very small part of our economy in terms of tax revenue and employment. But they are masterful at lobbying and marketing, which has distorted a lot of our views.

This isn't about left vs right, greenies vs capitalists or that nonsense. This is about physics, engineering and economic facts -- and we should be embracing the new economy for blatant economic self-interest (and, as a nice side effect, maybe help make the planet a bit more liveable for future generations).

27

Summer12
2 years ago

Great Insight -

From one of my daughters favourite movies- National Treasure

"Those who has the ability to take action has the responsibility to take action."

Paraphrased from the Declaration Of Independence.

About time people realise we are custodians of this planet, we don't own it.

10
Quiltman
2 years ago

I'm interested in members thoughts on areas of interest where they expect significant global transformation and disruption over the next 3 to 5 years. Nothing to wordy, just one or two sentences ! It's here I look for the behemoths of tomorrow, the companies who will take leadership of niche, relatively insignificant markets and ride that position to a level of greatness.

Here are a couple of thoughts of my own


Predictive health , owned by the consumer

With the advances in technology in sensors and AI, delivered through wearables such as watches & rings, consumers will be able to continuously monitor critical health biometrics and take a pro-active, preventative approach to health. 


Moving computing power to the edge

The cloud is like the M2 in Sydney on a Monday morning, and it's just going to get worse! To enable the billions of intelligent devices in the hands of consumers around the globe to function effectively and meet the needs of the next decade, computing power must pass to the device. This will be accomplished through AI, learning on device, new methods of data storage, superior edge sensors, better batteries etc.


We've hit the China panic button - the rush to secure national interests

.... a strange one, that will throw up some real winners over the next 3 - 5 years as they get assistance outside of normal market conditions.

The belligerent nature of China & Russia over the last decade, combined with the abrupt upheaval to global supply caused by covid, has made it abundantly clear to everyone, including the local greengrocer, that you can't have ANY critical resource dependent on China. Western nations are rapidly moving to rectify the situation, actively bankrolling market leading companies to correct the imbalance. Areas of interest include semiconductors, rare earth minerals, graphite ... geez, even garlic !


I've taken a position in companies in Strawman that I feel have a chance of exploiting these global macro medium terms disruptions. This is not a discussion on the merits of these companies in isolation, more a comment on how they fit against these macro global trends.

Cardiex - a global health technology company that focuses on hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and other vascular health disorders. Developing FDA cleared wearables using Central Blood Pressure to evaluate cardiovascular function.

Brainchip - Delivering AI, close to the sensor. Has delivered the world's first neuromorphic processor that can analyze only essential sensor inputs at the point of acquisition ( the edge device )—rather than through transmission via the cloud.

Syrah Resources/Talga - Graphite is a key component of batteries for EV's, making up ~30% of the required minerals. China was the leading graphite producing country worldwide as of 2021. The west must secure graphite resources outside of China .... rapidly !

31

Rick
2 years ago

@Quiltman,

With the pendulum beginning it’s swing away from globalism, critical minerals are a no brainer. Although this space may already be overcrowded for some minerals. I like Nickel and Rare Earths and hold Nickel Mines, Lynas and BHP.

Health, anything to do with improving the quality and longevity of human life. It’s a hard space to pick winners.

Cheers

Rick

14

lyndonator
2 years ago

The main ones I am considering at the moment (note, still thinking about, and researching these), most of these aren't super cutting edge anymore but are more currently happening:

Virtual Power Plants

The combination of home Solar + Battery + AI means that every home can help stabilise electricity supply and price by intelligently choosing went to send/receive electricity to/from the grid - while also increasing the ROI of the solar installation. Also worth noting that an electric vehicle is effectively a battery on wheels and will contribute to this.

AI Credit/Risk Assessment

Using AI to better assess the risk of a person than traditional broad based statistical methods. Loans and Insurance are the main uses cases here.

Blockchain Smart Contracts

There are a myriad of uses cases for smart contracts - but the most obvious one for me would be the custody and settlement layer of an Equity/Commodity market. You'd exchange stable coins for tokens representing shares in companies. It would allow (near) real time settlement eliminating the counter party risk (highlighted by the Game stop debacle (remember that??)) - also you'd be able to create a much fairer and more transparent shorting mechanism (you'd easily be able to allow/disallow your shares to be available to short sellers, and every short could be tracked to the individual token that was borrowed and sold back to the market).. of course before this could happen there would have to be a well regulated stable coin (or CDBC) created first.

7

Rick
2 years ago

Empires will crumble, Fortunes will be made” - AFR

I just read this article in the AFR which introduces a new podcast series to start on 6 June called ‘Net Zero’. It’s prompted me to jot down my thoughts about climate change and where I think we are at right now when it comes to global disruption.

There has been a lot of talk about climate change for over a decade now. I think the first global wave of concern was initiated by Al Gore’s “The Inconvenient Truth” lecture series, followed by this book in 2006. But, how much disruption to the global economy have we seen over the past 16 years as a result of Al Gore’s crusade? Not much!

To date, I think we have probably seen more impact to the global economy from the impact of climate change itself. Floods, fires, droughts etc. People get confused about climate change and climate variability. Climate change results in more extremes in climate variability, and we’ve certainly seen some records broken. What impact is climate change having on insurance companies right now? I think the odds are stacked against them.

Looking at what is happening right now, I think we have reached a turning point for ‘Net Zero’ disruption, and we will start to see ‘empires crumbling while fortunes are being made’ by the disrupters.

Look at what is happening with Michael Cannon-Brooks and AGL. Look at what BHP has just done, hiving off the oil and gas assets. Woodside Petroleum have changed their name to Woodside Energy. Many banks and other financial institutions are now committed to Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) to improve and increase reporting of climate-related financial information, any many banks will cease lending to the big polluters, if they haven’t already. Tesla was the top selling sedan in Australia last year. Most cars sold in the Scandinavian countries are EVs. Millennial investors are looking for ESG responsible investments. In Australia, voters are looking for an ESG change.

I think 2022 is a turning point for ‘Net Zero’ disruption and while I have been slowly moulding my portfolio ready for this, I wonder if I am moving quickly enough!

The Climate Challenge team at the AFR have just announced Tech Zero , a new podcast about the big green ideas that could get us to net zero and the inspiring people putting their heart and soul – and their money – into making them work. The first episode starts on 6 June. You can download the podcast now and listen to the intro. I look forward to this series. I think it will be incredibly interesting!

25