Forum Topics DaaS
Chagsy
2 years ago

This winter is shaping up to be a bad flu-season.

mortality rates have been historically low for the past 2 years ( both generally and specifically related to influenza)

Anecdotally I have noticed that the virulence of this year’s strain of Influenza seems to be pretty severe.

I strongly suspect that mortality figures will rebound above the historic mean ( one can only put these things off for so long, after all).

IVC and PFP may well be in for a bumper quarter or two. b3fcc9d989baeee4ce42397419e96e8c18fc6c.jpeg

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https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm/$File/flu-03-2022.pdf

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GazD
2 years ago

Historically low because of both international restrictions (ie difficult for influenza to get in) and within nation restrictions (ie decreased mixing, masks etc). I can't see a backlash to the flu shot being material. Interestingly, influenza vaccination has been mandatory in hospitals for HCW for a few years but is only now being enforced.

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Rick
2 years ago

While a bad flu season is not welcomed by anyone, it does create tailwinds for some businesses. One business that has been suffering throughout the pandemic and will benefit from colds and flu is Probiotic (PBP).

Probiotic is involved in the development, manufacture, packaging and sale of pharmaceutical and consumer health products. It provides contract manufacturing services solid dose tablets, capsules, tablet coating, blister packing etc. It also offers product analytical and stability testing services.

In their February 22 Outlook and Guidance, Probiotic said “Cough, cold and flu categories are showing further signs of recovery (revenue declined by c. $20m in FY21) and are expected to progressively recover as Covid-19 restrictions are eased and we head into the peak season for supply in 2HY22 and beyond”.

Analysts are forecasting more than 25% annual earnings growth over the next 3 years.

For full disclosure I hold PBP shares IRL and on SM.

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Rick
2 years ago

Hi @suttree , yes the CEO share sale worried me at the time also. Probiotic released a statement on the 22 Feb 2022 to explain.

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The explanation (home renovation) looked genuine to me, and it would appear that Wesley Stringer had borrowed from the company to buy the shares in the first place. There has also been some insider buying since the CEO sale.

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