Forum Topics GTH GTH RightCrowd dead or alive
AlphaAngle
2 years ago

Has anyone seen any public analysis or discussion of RCW after recent results? Some quality shareholders on the register at much higher prices and I'm curious as to what people are thinking generally about the long term thesis now. Obviously sentiment is pretty rubbish currently but piques my interest as a potential opportunity.

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ArrowTrades
2 years ago

I like those situations as there is one good angle to watch for and that is are those quality shareholders buying more stock?


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AlphaAngle
2 years ago

Judging by volumes below 10 cents its pretty much me and probably a couple of other guys ha ha

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bjbart
2 years ago

I am a low quality shareholder and for what it’s worth I think the error made by management was trying to chase a short term potential opportunity with their “getting back to work safely” and contact tracing push rather than continuing about their core business of more general work place safety and security which is a proven, sticky suite of products used by institutions like Microsoft and the entire NZ prison system as 2 examples. But perhaps this may have stalled due to the disruption of traditional work places and the “work from home” revolution that we’ve just seen. They also had challenges in sales I believe due to travel restrictions. This is all with the benefit of hindsight obviously as no one knew how it was all going to pan out. I think if they go back to what they’re good at there should be no reason why they couldn’t continue to grow revenues at a reasonable clip as they were pre covid, and they’ve just put sales offices in North America and Europe. Problem now is cash, capital raises and dilution. I think this and the Ticto acquisition a few years ago are two missteps by management.

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bjbart
2 years ago

I also took the liberty of quoting @Valueinvestor0909’s last straw in email I sent to the company venting my frustration regarding their last 4C shenanigans. Unsurprisingly I received no reply :)

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Rapstar
2 years ago

I don't think they ever shot the lights out to be honest. They had one outstanding quarter (Q2 2021), and revenue growth has been on the slide ever since.

ARR fell last quarter, and customer churn increased to 8.7% (apparently contact tracing / presence control was the main contributor to churn). Revenue growth could potentially evaporate given the high churn.



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AlphaAngle
2 years ago

So my opinion is that they got caught up in the COVID presence control stuff but were a really company doing other stuff successfully before that with workforce management with an impressive customer base for a small company. My hope would be that they will return to the core business offering and that it will find traction. I also envisage this type of system being quite sticky once its implemented. Also RCW seems like a great tack on acquisition for other enterprise software companies which broadens the number of outs for a small investor.

As such with such a devastated share price I think that there is much more likelihood it goes to 20 cents than 5 cents and it seems unlikely to me that its worth nothing. Got enough cash to hopefully get through the current downturn (maybe).

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bjbart
2 years ago

They’d been growing revenues at 40% for the first few years post IPO and the churn was consistently sub 5% until recently as you say.

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