Forum Topics FFX FFX Firefinch 65% collapse!
Hands
2 years ago

Anyone with any context? I haven't been following this stock much but thought it was going really well??

Demerger coming up 9th June. Keeping their gold assets, selling off their Lithium assets (due to list on 16th) which are all on the nose at the moment due to Goldman Sachs.

Sorry, I can't compute why the 65% drop.

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Jimmy
2 years ago

As a previous holder I was just checking this out myself. Don't understand why but noted the record date for the in specie distribution is Monday therefore buying today won't get you on the register to access the free issue so this could explain in part the sell off.

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Bear77
2 years ago

FFX trades ex-distribution today (Friday 3rd June 2022) for the Leo Lithium shares. Effectively, while the record date for the demerger is Monday, any shares bought today are bought ex-distribution - as explained here: FFX-Updated-Appendix-3A5---Notification-of-Return-of-Capital.PDF

So from today, those people buying FFX shares are buying a pure gold play, with zero exposure to lithium. The last cum-distribution date was yesterday, Thursday 2nd June:

b6a87ff49e9f9e7dec9b389baa2757bd6cd8d5.png

They are referring to the event as a return of capital, but what they are actually doing is giving all FFX shareholders shares in Leo Lithium, so are demerging their substantial lithium assets. Because of the 2-day settlement - i.e. you are recorded as owning shares 2 trading days after you buy them, those shares bought yesterday (Thursday) will be recorded on Monday (the "record day") as being held by those new owners, but shares bought today (Friday) will not be recorded until Tuesday, i.e. the day AFTER the record day, so people buying FFX shares today will NOT receive any Leo Lithium shares, hence the circa 60+% fall in the FFX SP today.

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You can click on those images to make them larger.

Hope that helps @Hands

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Hands
2 years ago

Many thanks @Bear77 @Jimmy

So yesterday's closing price $0.95 less $0.70 = $0.25. So it might actually be overpriced right now ... assuming you value the Lithium component to still be worth $0.70.

d44c098847073bc83906bef152b6a582bcd58b.png

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Bear77
2 years ago

I don't know if FFX is overpriced. I'm guessing the market is saying that the lithium assets are probably worth closer to 60 cents/share than the 70 cents/share that FFX have valued them at. I do know that FFX are not yet producing lithium, but they ARE producing gold. So, in terms of production, they are a gold producer. I think that with the lithium assets removed from the equation, FFX look better as a gold producer and will garner more interest. Not for me however, because their gold assets are in Mali - see here: Firefinch Limited – Leading Gold Miner and Lithium Developer (firefinchltd.com)

I don't like gold miners whose assets are in Western Africa, or other countries where I consider there is a much higher sovereign risk element than there is for miners who dig their gold up in Australia, New Zealand, the USA or Canada. However companies like Perseus Mining (PRU) have definitely proven that there is plenty of money to be made if you do it right and the bad stuff never happens to you.

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Casarecce
2 years ago

Good discussion. I think it's worth noting that FFX is retaining 20% of the equity in the newly formed LLL. So a material amount of the value of FFX's shares will actually still be derived from the LLL business.

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Strawman
2 years ago

If scorecards don't automatically adjust with this capital restructure, make sure to DM me and I'll sort it manually.

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